The official 10-6 makes the playoff scenario - need a math whiz.

[fgssand]

By now, we all know what has to happen if we win out, go 11-5 and what the help needed is for us to get in.

This thread is about 10-6..........

Can anybody figure how "strength of Victory" tiebreaker will play out??

If we lose to AZ and beat Buffalo, we're 10-6.

IF - Balt BEATS Dallas but LOSES to Jax, they are 10-6.

That sets up this scenario:

There's one final possibility here, albeit a very confusing one: If the Patriots lose to the Cardinals and beat the Bills and if the Ravens beat the Cowboys and lose to the Jaguars, New England and Baltimore would have the same record (10-6), and the same record within the conference (7-5) -- which is the first tiebreaker in a wild card scenario since the teams did not face each other this season. Complicating matters is that, if our math is right, they would also be tied in the next tiebreaker -- record against common opponents. So that means it could come down to strength of victory.


Also, 10-6 could get us in as follows:

If New England loses to either the Cardinals or the Bills, they need Baltimore to drop both of its remaining games.

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The Patriots would need this nifty little scenario to win the East: Dolphins lose to Chiefs AND Jets lose to Seattle AND Jets-Dolphins game ends in a tie. Like those odds?
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[TheGodInAGreyHoodie]

By now, we all know what has to happen if we win out, go 11-5 and what the help needed is for us to get in.

This thread is about 10-6..........

Can anybody figure how "strength of Victory" tiebreaker will play out??

If we lose to AZ and beat Buffalo, we're 10-6.

IF - Balt BEATS Dallas but LOSES to Jax, they are 10-6.

That sets up this scenario:

There's one final possibility here, albeit a very confusing one: If the Patriots lose to the Cardinals and beat the Bills and if the Ravens beat the Cowboys and lose to the Jaguars, New England and Baltimore would have the same record (10-6), and the same record within the conference (7-5) -- which is the first tiebreaker in a wild card scenario since the teams did not face each other this season. Complicating matters is that, if our math is right, they would also be tied in the next tiebreaker -- record against common opponents. So that means it could come down to strength of victory.

​

As it currently stands:

NE stength of victory is 53-77 or 0.408

Balt strength of victory 54-70-3 or 0.425

NE
W L T
KC 2 12
jets 9 5
49rs 5 9
den 8 6
rams 2 12
bills 6 8
bills 6 8
sea 3 11

raiders 3 1
mia 9 5

Ravens


cinc 2 11 1
cinc 2 11 1
clev browns 4 9
clev browns 4 9
texans 7 7
eagles 7 5 1
redskins 7 7
cowboys 9 5

raiders 3 1
mia 9 5


BTW this should answer the question for anyone wondering if you should root for the eagles or browns tonight.....root for the eagles a brown win hurts us twice as bad.​

 

[PATSYLICIOUS]

As it currently stands:

NE stength of victory is 53-77 or 0.408

Balt strength of victory 54-70-3 or 0.425

NE
W L T
KC 2 12
jets 9 5
49rs 5 9
den 8 6
rams 2 12
bills 6 8
bills 6 8
sea 3 11

raiders 3 1
mia 9 5

Ravens


cinc 2 11 1
cinc 2 11 1
clev browns 4 9
clev browns 4 9
texans 7 7
eagles 7 5 1
redskins 7 7
cowboys 9 5

raiders 3 1
mia 9 5


BTW this should answer the question for anyone wondering if you should root for the eagles or browns tonight.....root for the eagles a brown win hurts us twice as bad.

But even if the Eagles win, Dallas loses in week 17, and Buffalo wins next week, it looks like Balti still has the edge in that situation right?

 

[xmarkd400x]

As far as I'm concerned, the Pats playoffs started last week. Losses mean you are eliminated.

 

[TheGodInAGreyHoodie]

But even if the Eagles win, Dallas loses in week 17, and Buffalo wins next week, it looks like Balti still has the edge in that situation right?

Yes balt as the edge. Cleveland plays cinci so that will both be 2 wins and 2 loses for balt.

If the Jets lose it hurts us on this scenario, but helps us with other one. The two teams are close enough that anything could happen with this tie breaker.

 

[signbabybrady]

If we lose one game than we need to pray...there still wuold be a crazy scenario where we can get in but until we lose one I am not thinking about it as it will give me a head ache.

 

[PatriotsInGA]

just go 11-5 thats simple enough

 

[PatsFanSince74]

By now, we all know what has to happen if we win out, go 11-5 and what the help needed is for us to get in.

This thread is about 10-6..........

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My head hurts. A shiny Penny to anyone who can boil the realistic 10--6 scenarios down to simple sentences, like "The Pats win the WC if they win out and the Ravens lose one more game" or "The Pats win the Division if they win out and the Jets and Dolphins each lose one more game" or "The Pats win the Divsion if the Jets and Dolphins don't lose again, but their game in Week 17 ends in a tie."

 

[Disco Volante]

My head hurts. A shiny Penny to anyone who can boil the realistic 10--6 scenarios down to simple sentences

Here you go...

If...

Patriots lose 1 game (vs Cardinals, @ Bills)

AFC East Division Title with...

1A) Jets lose @ Seahawks
AND
1B) Dolphins lose @ Chiefs
AND
1C) Dolphins @ Jets game ends in tie

Wild-Card Berth with...

1) Ravens lose out (@ Cowboys, vs Jaguars)

OR

2A) Patriots beat Bills
AND
2B) Ravens lose to Jaguars
AND
2C) Patriots finish with stronger Strength of Victory

Basically the easiest scenario is, if the Patriots go 10-6, and the Ravens lose out, we make the playoffs.

 

[fgssand]

My head hurts. A shiny Penny to anyone who can boil the realistic 10--6 scenarios down to simple sentences, like "The Pats win the WC if they win out and the Ravens lose one more game" or "The Pats win the Division if they win out and the Jets and Dolphins each lose one more game" or "The Pats win the Divsion if the Jets and Dolphins don't lose again, but their game in Week 17 ends in a tie."

You think your head hurts now??? Based on strength of victory tie breaker.....here are the teams we root for to swing the advantage our way. (disclaimer - someone I know with waaaay too much time on their hands did this)

A lot of our wins and the Ravens wins, play each other in the final weeks, so a good amount of games don't matter who wins and who loses cuz they equally effect both the win column and loss column. But I figured it all out, so some teams you won't see on here even though we beat them or Balt beat them. Although, I think it may somehow matter in the overall percentage, but either way we definitely want the following to happen :

Teams/Games we want to win (helps our SOV) : Den to beat SD (week 17), Seattle to beat Arizona (week 17), SF to beat Wash (week 17), STL to beat Atl (week 17), and we want KC to beat Cincy (week 17) with this last one being huge giving us a win and them 2 losses.
It's crazy but week 16 can't help us at all really except Oakland beating Houston as every team we beat is playing another team we beat and same for Balt. Again, I think it actually sort of matters.

Teams/Games we want losses (hurts Balt SOV) : Pitt over Clev (week 17), KC over Cincy (week 17), Oak over Hou (week 16), Chi over Hou (week 17), Dallas over Philly (week 17), and SF over Wash (week 17)

 

[AFPatsFan12]

Maybe I just missed this part, but what about the other non-division-winner AFC East team? Presumably, they would be 10-6 as well. Any ideas how this comes into play?

 

[PatsFanSince74]

Here you go...



Basically the easiest scenario is, if the Patriots go 10-6, and the Ravens lose out, we make the playoffs.

Thanks. That's very helpful.

 

[TheGodInAGreyHoodie]

Maybe I just missed this part, but what about the other non-division-winner AFC East team? Presumably, they would be 10-6 as well. Any ideas how this comes into play?

Okay the other 10-6 AFCE team would be the loser of the Fins-Jets game.

This scenario has the Pats losing to AZ and beating the Bills.

So if the other 10-6 team is the Dolphins we beat them on div record. 4-2 vs 3-3.

If the other 10-6 team is the Jets. we would have the same div record 4-2, but would beat them on common games (we lost both our non-common games, they won one of them, so if our records are tied we have the a better common games record)

 

[AFPatsFan12]

Ah yes, I forgot to add the division loss to the Phins. Gracias