AFC Playoff Race - Week 14

[PYPER]

This projection model provides the expected win totals of the AFC Playoff contenders if each of the contenders beat the poor teams on their schedule and split their games against other contending teams.

Here are the expected records for the rest of the AFC teams in contention.

TEAM.....Current Record.....Schedule.....Expected Wins (EW's)....Competive Games (CG's).....Expected Record

1) Titans: 12-1; Hou,Pit,@Ind; 1 EW's; 2 CG's; Exp.Record = 14-2
2) Steelers: 10-3; Bal,@Ten,Cle; 1 EW; 2 CG's; Exp.Record = 12-4
3) Dolphins: 8-5; SF,KC,@NYJ; 2 EW's; 1 CG's; Exp.Record = 10.5 - 5.5
4) Broncos: 8-5; @Car,Buf,@SD; 0 EW's; 3 CG's; Exp.Record = 9.5 - 6.5
5) Colts: 9-4; Det,@Jax,Ten; 2 EW's; 1 CG's; Exp.Record = 11.5 - 4.5
6) Ravens: 9-4; Pit,@Dal,Jax; 1 EW’s; CG's; Exp.Record = 11–5
================================================== ===
7) Jets: 8-5; Buf,@Sea,Mia; 1 EW's; 2 CG's; Exp.Record = 10-6
8) Patriots: 8-5; @Oak,Ari,@Buf; 1 EW's; 2 CG's; Exp.Record = 10–6
9) Texans: 6-7; Ten,@Oak,Chi; 1 EW's, 2 CG's; Exp. Record = 8-8
10) Bills: 6-7; @NYJ,@Den,NE; 0 EW's; 3 CG's; Exp.Record = 7.5 - 8.5
11) Chargers: 5-8; @KC,@TB,Den; 1 EW's, 2 CG's; Exp.Record = 7-9

Note: Teams are ordered based on their expected records, which is NOT necessarily the way it would look if the season were to end today. For example, the Jets are currently in line for the #4 seed but when we use the expected record formula they lose the AFC East title to the Miami Dolphins and fall to the #7 slot.

 

[PatsFan2]

This projection model provides the expected win totals of the AFC Playoff contenders if each of the contenders beat the poor teams on their schedule and split their games against other contending teams.

Here are the expected records for the rest of the AFC teams in contention.

TEAM.....Current Record.....Schedule.....Expected Wins (EW's)....Competive Games (CG's).....Expected Record

1) Titans: 12-1; Hou,Pit,@Ind; 1 EW's; 2 CG's; Exp.Record = 14-2
2) Steelers: 10-3; Bal,@Ten,Cle; 1 EW; 2 CG's; Exp.Record = 12-4
3) Dolphins: 8-5; SF,KC,@NYJ; 2 EW's; 1 CG's; Exp.Record = 10.5 - 5.5
4) Broncos: 8-5; @Car,Buf,@SD; 0 EW's; 3 CG's; Exp.Record = 9.5 - 6.5
5) Colts: 9-4; Det,@Jax,Ten; 2 EW's; 1 CG's; Exp.Record = 11.5 - 4.5
6) Ravens: 9-4; Pit,@Dal,Jax; 1 EW’s; CG's; Exp.Record = 11–5
================================================== ===
7) Jets: 8-5; Buf,@Sea,Mia; 1 EW's; 2 CG's; Exp.Record = 10-6
8) Patriots: 8-5; @Oak,Ari,@Buf; 1 EW's; 2 CG's; Exp.Record = 10–6
9) Texans: 6-7; Ten,@Oak,Chi; 1 EW's, 2 CG's; Exp. Record = 8-8
10) Bills: 6-7; @NYJ,@Den,NE; 0 EW's; 3 CG's; Exp.Record = 7.5 - 8.5
11) Chargers: 5-8; @KC,@TB,Den; 1 EW's, 2 CG's; Exp.Record = 7-9

Note: Teams are ordered based on their expected records, which is NOT necessarily the way it would look if the season were to end today. For example, the Jets are currently in line for the #4 seed but when we use the expected record formula they lose the AFC East title to the Miami Dolphins and fall to the #7 slot.

Miami is @ KC and not the other way around.

 

[Pats726]

So what are the scenarios??? How do the Pats win teh division...How do they get the wild card??

 

[Watson's IQ]

So what are the scenarios??? How do the Pats win teh division...How do they get the wild card??

Given the fact that the Ravens won last night, it looks a lot more dicey on the WC front, we might very well need the division. The bottom line is that the Pats pretty much need to win out at this point. And even then we'd need each of New York AND Miami to lose once (one of those losses would be to the other team) or for the Ravens to lose two times (we'd pass either NYJ or MIA given that one of them would lose to the other). If the Pats don't win out, then they'll need A LOT more help (from some pretty mediocre teams).

 

[Pats726]

Given the fact that the Ravens won last night, it looks a lot more dicey on the WC front, we might very well need the division. The bottom line is that the Pats pretty much need to win out at this point. And even then we'd need each of New York AND Miami to lose once (one of those losses would be to the other team) or for the Ravens to lose two times (we'd pass either NYJ or MIA given that one of them would lose to the other). If the Pats don't win out, then they'll need A LOT more help (from some pretty mediocre teams).

IF the Pats lose one..their chances go down incredibly....even IF they win out..it's asking a lot for odd things to happen...if going into the final game, the Jets and Fins have won 2...the Pats can NOT win the division...as a tie with the Jets is gone via the Jets Division record and if they tie Miami gone due to conference record. So given THAT scenario...is the Ravens losing 2 that much harder?? Pitts and Dallas...they COULD lose 2 a lot easier I think than Miami and teh Jets each losing one.

 

[BlitzFritz]

its pretty clear.

Pats need to win out.

Ravens need to lose to Pitt AND Dallas - so we can get in as wild card.

Otherwise, we need Jets AND Miami to each lose one. (and they play each other so there is one).

Given cupcake schedules that Jets and Miami have, I have hoping more for the Ravens to lose 2.

For all those guys who said "no one with 11-5 ever misses the playoffs", you forgot that "the devil is in the details".

11-5 is looking very shaky.

anyway, what a frickin entertaining game yesterday!

- FRITZ

 

[Pats726]

It is clear the Pats must win out.....ONE way to get in is to have the Ravens lose two....THAt MAY happen...But I think another scnario is possible that the Pats get the Crown....IF the Jets lose in Seattle which I THINK could happen....ALL the marbles will ride on the last game....If the Jets win and the Pats lose they get in so they need that game...If Miami wins and the Pats lose they get in...in fact, if Miami wins and Pats win..the Fins go as well.....I think IF the Jets win and the Pats lose...the Fins go as well..as that is a three way tie...What is good about this scenario is that ALL teams have reasons to win...

 

[PatsFan2]

its pretty clear.

Pats need to win out.

Ravens need to lose to Pitt AND Dallas - so we can get in as wild card.

Otherwise, we need Jets AND Miami to each lose one. (and they play each other so there is one).

Given cupcake schedules that Jets and Miami have, I have hoping more for the Ravens to lose 2.

For all those guys who said "no one with 11-5 ever misses the playoffs", you forgot that "the devil is in the details".

11-5 is looking very shaky.

anyway, what a frickin entertaining game yesterday!

- FRITZ

Yep we need Baltimore to drop the next Two to give us some breathing room as a Wild Card if we miss out of the Division and that is possible. They are hosting Pittsburgh and are @ Dallas. Pitt needs that #2 seed and Dallas is still playing for their Playoffs lives. Miami could drop Two or one more because they Finish @ the Jets. Also the Jets have a west coast date @ Seattle. That said none of these scenario means nothing if we don't win out. Three more Games to go.

 

[BradyManny]

Damn, we win yesterday and we move down the chart. Depressing. But, bottom line is, we win out, we're likely in. Thanks for these updates, Pyper, they definitely help simplify the situation.

 

[lostjumper]

That would be pretty tough to swallow if the Pats went 11-5 and ended up missing the playoffs.

However, it may not even get to that. I think the Cardinals are going to pose a very touhg challenge. With all the injuries on defense that we have, the cards could put 35-40 on us...

 

[Pat the Pats Fan]

Raven's could lose 2, but, they looked really good last night. I would expect them to lose 1 of their next 3 at worse. No help for Pats.

Jets and Phins each lose a game, would do it for the Pats. I think the best chance would be:
Jets lose to Buffalo
Phins lose to Jets.
Both finish 10-6
Pats win out, finish 11-5.

But Pat need to take care of business first, before looking at the scoreboards.....

 

[Watson's IQ]

IF the Pats lose one..their chances go down incredibly....even IF they win out..it's asking a lot for odd things to happen...if going into the final game, the Jets and Fins have won 2...the Pats can NOT win the division...as a tie with the Jets is gone via the Jets Division record and if they tie Miami gone due to conference record. So given THAT scenario...is the Ravens losing 2 that much harder?? Pitts and Dallas...they COULD lose 2 a lot easier I think than Miami and teh Jets each losing one.

I'm not even considering the possibilities if they lose a game (although it's still technically possible).

Who knows, maybe SF will beat Miami and Buffalo will beat the Jets next week, stranger things have happened. Assuming we win, we'll all feel a lot better then.

 

[Palm Beach Pats Fan]

New England Patriots Playoff Picture - Sports Club Stats

19% chance of making the playoffs, 14% of that is as the division winner, so that is indeed the more likely scenario. Either of these two routes will work, and everything else is a much longer proposition.

most likely way in:
1) win out &
2a) the winner of Miami-NYJ loses another game

or

second most likely way in:
1) win out &
2b) Baltimore loses two games

bottom line: focus on #1 and hope for 2a or 2b.

 

[JSn]

Good thing for the Jets Fan Confidence isn't important. If this doesn't make you smile, nothing will.

Pop Up Video

 

[PatsFan2]

Good thing for the Jets Fan Confidence isn't important. If this doesn't make you smile, nothing will.

Pop Up Video

Great stuff.

 

[PatsFan2]

Raven's could lose 2, but, they looked really good last night. I would expect them to lose 1 of their next 3 at worse. No help for Pats.

Jets and Phins each lose a game, would do it for the Pats. I think the best chance would be:
Jets lose to Buffalo
Phins lose to Jets.
Both finish 10-6
Pats win out, finish 11-5.

But Pat need to take care of business first, before looking at the scoreboards.....

Buffalo is the Detroit Lions of the AFC-East...what door mats...The Jets ain't losing to them.

 

[billdog3484]

theoretically speaking, there are a lot of scenarios which, if played out, have us missing the playoffs at 11-5 if im not mistaken as well

 

[Palm Beach Pats Fan]

theoretically speaking, there are a lot of scenarios which, if played out, have us missing the playoffs at 11-5 if im not mistaken as well

yes,

By the link I posted above, if we win out there is a 50% chance we would win the division and only a 22% chance we would win the wild card. There is a 28% chance we would sit home, even with the 11-5 record.

 

[fumbrunner]

theoretically speaking, there are a lot of scenarios which, if played out, have us missing the playoffs at 11-5 if im not mistaken as well

If the Jets win out or Mia wins out, we miss the playoffs by virtue of tiebreakers.

 

[SVN]

Raven's could lose 2, but, they looked really good last night. I would expect them to lose 1 of their next 3 at worse. No help for Pats.

Jets and Phins each lose a game, would do it for the Pats. I think the best chance would be:
Jets lose to Buffalo
Phins lose to Jets.
Both finish 10-6
Pats win out, finish 11-5.

But Pat need to take care of business first, before looking at the scoreboards.....

or
balt loses 2
miami wins out and wins div
pats win out and win WC.