Patriots are not in the Big Boys Club

[VJCPatriot]

At least not this year. Let's analyze their schedule and see how they have fared.

Game 1 vs Chiefs. 17-10W. They beat a pretty weak KC team.
Game 2 vs Jets. 19-10W. They beat a Jets team with a QB that is still learning the system.
Game 3 vs Dolphins. 38-13 loss. They get blown out by the Phins in an embarassment due to being unable to deal with the Wildcat formation.
Game 4 vs 49ers. 30-21W. They beat a weak 9ers team.
Game 5 vs Chargers. 30-19L. They get blown out by the Chargers.
Game 6 vs Rams. 23-16W. They barely beat a pretty bad Rams team.
Game 7 vs Colts. 18-15L. They get edged out by a Colts team that has not looked nearly as good as in previous years.
Game 8 vs Bills. 20-10W. They beat a Bills team that has been looking worse and worse as the season progresses.
Game 9 vs Jets. 34-31L. Cassel gets intoa shootout with Brett and has his breakout game, but the Pat's defense inability to get out of 3rd and long costs them all game long and especially in OT.
Game 10 vs Dolphins. 48-28W. Cassel has another monster game to lead the Pats to the win but the defense still looks worrisome.
Game 11 vs Steelers. 33-10L. A game that looked close at the half snowballed into a comedy of errors in the 2nd half as Steelers win this one in a laugher.

Summary:

Combined record of the teams that the Pats beat: 2-10, 8-4, 4-8, 2-10, 6-6, 7-5 = 29-43 = .403 win%

Combined record of the teams that the Pats lost to: 7-5, 4-8, 8-4, 8-4, 9-3 = 36-24 = .600 win%

Conclusion - The Pats win against mediocre and bad teams but they lose significantly more games against the stronger winning teams. This Pats team might be able to squeak into a wildcard, but based on their record against winning teams, I don't like their odds of getting by even the first round of the playoffs.

 

[BionicPatriot]

Its been like that since 06. Outside of 07 when they beat everyone, they've struggled mightily since 05 against good teams.

 

[slash83]

What do you expect from a depleted team another run at 19-0? Seriously, the teams out there fighting every week. They lost to one of the best teams in all of football with half of there star players out give them a break.

 

[BionicPatriot]

What do you expect from a depleted team another run at 19-0? Seriously, the teams out there fighting every week. They lost to one of the best teams in all of football with half of there star players out give them a break.

Half?

Adalius Thomas, Brady, Maroney, to a wayyy less extent, Harrison?

That's half their stars out? No wonder our defense sucks.

 

[Brady to Brown]

Half?

Adalius Thomas, Brady, Maroney, to a wayyy less extent, Harrison?

That's half their stars out? No wonder our defense sucks.

Well Brady is worth 5 or 6 starters (only half kidding)

Maroney

The offense will be fine next year.

The defense is where the problems are. A.Thomas and R.Harrison are just that good I guess. Brady is good enough to carry the whole team.

 

[richpats]

Aptly titled thread- the Pats have positioned themselves at the cusp of the playoffs by beating everyone they should beat and losing to the "big boys". The 3 losses this (err last) month were "big-boy" games and the Pats cracked in every one of them. Get one win in any of the 3 and we are in playoff position. Unfortunately we won't get another "big-boy" game until the playoffs (if we are lucky).

 

[cstjohn17]

But we have 3 Superbowls, as long as Pittsburgh, Indy or the Giants don't win the Pats still have a strangle hold on best team of the decade..

 

[richpats]

But we have 3 Superbowls, as long as Pittsburgh, Indy or the Giants don't win the Pats still have a strangle hold on best team of the decade..

What worries me is that those 3 teams have the best chance of making it with their experience.

 

[Kontradiction]

Aptly titled thread- the Pats have positioned themselves at the cusp of the playoffs by beating everyone they should beat and losing to the "big boys". The 3 losses this (err last) month were "big-boy" games and the Pats cracked in every one of them. Get one win in any of the 3 and we are in playoff position. Unfortunately we won't get another "big-boy" game until the playoffs (if we are lucky).

UNfortunately?

 

[richpats]

UNfortunately?

I like the lighter load in December but even if we win out and sneak into the playoffs, we really won't know what this team is capable of doing in a pressure-packed situation against a pretty good team. So far I've seen some courageous performances undone by a couple of bad plays (see Indy, Jets games).

 

[ctpatsfan77]

Conclusion - The Pats win against mediocre and bad teams but they lose significantly more games against the stronger winning teams. This Pats team might be able to squeak into a wildcard, but based on their record against winning teams, I don't like their odds of getting by even the first round of the playoffs.

Seeing as they were actually competitive for at least a half in most of those losses, I'm not quite as sanguine on their chances.

 

[Disco Volante]

At this point last season, the New York Giants were 8-4, with two losses to the Dallas Cowboys.

Combined record of the teams that the Pats beat: 2-10, 8-4, 4-8, 2-10, 6-6, 7-5 = 29-43 = .403 win%

Final winning percentage of 8 teams Giants had beaten: .351%

Combined record of the teams that the Pats lost to: 7-5, 4-8, 8-4, 8-4, 9-3 = 36-24 = .600 win%

Final winning percentage of 3 teams Giants lost to: .708%

Conclusion - The Pats win against mediocre and bad teams but they lose significantly more games against the stronger winning teams. This Pats team might be able to squeak into a wild card, but based on their record against winning teams, I don't like their odds of getting by even the first round of the playoffs.

Conclusion - The Giants had more wins against mediocre/bad teams but they lost significantly more games against the stronger winning teams. They were able to squeak into a wild card berth, but based on their record against winning teams, no one liked their odds of getting by the first round of the playoffs.

 

[richpats]

They were able to squeak into a wild card berth, but based on their record against winning teams, no one liked their odds of getting by the first round of the playoffs.

I think the key difference between those Giants and these Pats is that the G-men didn't really NEED to beat any good teams to make the playoffs. The Pats may miss out on the playoffs....even at 11-5(!)....because they were one quality win short.

 

[bronk37]

we are really going to struggle against arizonas recievers, the defense is 31st in redzone D which is very un BB like also every game I have seen this year we can not put pressure on the QB on a consistent basis it has vanished with colvin going

 

[VJCPatriot]

I think the key difference between those Giants and these Pats is that the G-men didn't really NEED to beat any good teams to make the playoffs. The Pats may miss out on the playoffs....even at 11-5(!)....because they were one quality win short.

Another key difference is that the Giants had one of the best defenses and best pass RUSH in football last year. That defense carried that team at times. I don't think the Pats defense can do that. Also, could anyone have predicted that Eli would suddenly flip the switch and play the way he did in the playoffs?

What do the Championship Patriot teams all share in common? They were the best at winning the 'big boy' games against teams with winning records. The 2008 Pats are limping in towards the playoffs and stand on the cusp at 7-5 AFTER playing the easiest schedule in the NFL. What will happen when we face quality teams? We already saw a sobering example of what happens against the Steelers.

The Patriots need a serious rebound win next week, and they cannot afford to lose any more division/conference games. I think they're already in pretty bad shape when it comes to conference record tiebreaker... Yup they are 5-5 in conference play now. SIX other playoff contending teams have better conference records right now. The Pats pretty much need to run the table to make the playoffs. And since they lost head to head vs the Jets, a division title now seems unlikely even if they end up with the same record after 16 games.

 

[Pats726]

Half?

Adalius Thomas, Brady, Maroney, to a wayyy less extent, Harrison?

That's half their stars out? No wonder our defense sucks.

I wouldn't say to a way less etent harrison..he may be slow..but what he does is help with vet leadership...Thomas is the real QB of the D..His loss is big..but do NOT forget Ty Warren was out as well...NOT half of teh stars..but NOT significant??

 

[bostonia3333]

You conveniently left out the Broncos game. That game reminded me of the Week 2 2007 performance against San Diego. Just a complete game in all 3 phases.

 

[j00fek]

cant go anywhere on this D

 

[PrairiePat]

Conclusion - The Pats win against mediocre and bad teams but they lose significantly more games against the stronger winning teams.

Isn't this like saying that heavier objects weigh more?

The league in general loses more games against good teams, and wins more games against weaker teams. That's why good teams have better records than weaker ones, right?

I suspect every team in the league has the exact same 'problem' you're trying to indicate here.

 

[rsd]

Its been like that since 06. Outside of 07 when they beat everyone, they've struggled mightily since 05 against good teams.

Yeah let's just through out 18 wins from last year for the sake of an argument...