AFC East Divison Champion Race: The situation

[Disco Volante]

============================================
1) Jets (8-4)
Remaining Schedule: @ 49ers, vs Bills, @ Seahawks, vs Dolphins
Strength of Schedule: 18-29 (38%) [Home: 2 / Road: 2]

2) Patriots (7-5)
Remaining Schedule: @ Seahawks, @ Raiders, vs Cardinals, @ Bills
Strength of Schedule: 17-30 (36%) [Home: 1 / Road: 3]

3) Dolphins (7-5)
Remaining Schedule: @ Bills, vs 49ers, @ Chiefs, @ Jets
Strength of Schedule: 20-28 (42%) [Home: 1 / Road: 3]
============================================

Jets currently have a one game lead on the Patriots and Dolphins with four games to go. They also hold the tiebreaker advantage, with a better division record than both teams.

If the divison comes down to a tie-breaker...

============================================
1) Head-to-Head

Patriots / Jets = Tied (1-1)
Patriots / Dolphins = Tied (1-1)
Jets / Dolphins = Jets (1-0) lead, with one game remaining

2) Division Record

Jets: 3-1
Games Remaining: vs Buffalo, vs Miami

Patriots: 3-2
Games Remaining: @ Buffalo

Dolphins (2-2)
Games Remaining: @ Bills, @ Jets

3) Common Games

Dolphins (5-1)
Games Remaining: vs 49ers, @ Chiefs

Patriots (4-1)
Games Remaining: @ Seahawks, @ Raiders, vs Cardinals

Jets (3-3)
Games Remaining: @ 49ers, @ Seahawks

4) Conference Record

Jets: 6-4
Games Remaining: vs Bills, vs Dolphins

Dolphins (5-4)
Games Remaining: @ Bills, @ Chiefs, @ Jets

Patriots: 5-5
Games Remaining: @ Raiders, @ Bills
============================================

The Jets and Dolphins both control their own destiny for the AFC East, while the Patriots do not and will require help.

 

[LloydBraun]

Re: AFC East Champion: The situation.

My prediction:

The Jets lose 3 of the next 4- @ SF, @ Sea and the Miami game.

The Pats will win all 4. The Arizona game is scary, but I expect the ball control game that we can do with Cassel and the backs will eat them up, same with Seattle.

 

[Bertil]

Re: AFC East Champion: The situation.

Thankfully there are no "Quality" teams left on that list. The Pats have beaten only 1 Quality team, and that is the Jets, whom they lost to the last time they played. This fact does not bode well for the playoffs, should they even get that far. I'm really grasping for reasons that they will go anywhere, come playoff time. They look like a one-and-done team to me. Matt Cassel is really one of the best things about this team, but that's not saying much. I'm not a bandwagon jumper. I'm on...but realistically, it looks daunting.

 

[Disco Volante]

Re: AFC East Champion: The situation.

Thankfully there are no "Quality" teams left on that list. The Pats have beaten only 1 Quality team, and that is the Jets, whom they lost to the last time they played. This fact does not bode well for the playoffs, should they even get that far. I'm really grasping for reasons that they will go anywhere, come playoff time. They look like a one-and-done team to me. Matt Cassel is really one of the best things about this team, but that's not saying much. I'm not a bandwagon jumper. I'm on...but realistically, it looks daunting.

I'd consider the Broncos, who just beat the red hot Jets on the road by three scores - a quality team.

 

[Delicate Genius]

Re: AFC East Champion: The situation.

What does it look like with Miami involved?

 

[Sean Pa Patriot]

Re: AFC East Divison Champion Race: The situation.

============================================
Jets (8-4)
Remaining Schedule: @ 49ers, vs Bills, @ Seahawks, vs Dolphins
Strength of Schedule: 18-29 (38%) [Home: 2 / Road: 2]

Patriots (7-5)
Remaining Schedule: @ Seahawks, @ Raiders, vs Cardinals, @ Bills
Strength of Schedule: 17-30 (36%) [Home: 1 / Road: 3]
============================================

Jet's currently have a one game lead on the Patriots, with four games to go. They also hold the tiebreaker advantage, with a better division record.

If we are able to finish with the same record as the Jets, here are the top three tiebreakers for a division title (After head-to-head) and the current schedule regarding those tiebreakers.

============================================
1) Division Record

Jets: 3-1
Games Remaining: vs Buffalo, vs Miami

Patriots: 3-2
Games Remaining: @ Buffalo

2) Common Games

Patriots (4-1)
Games Remaining: @ Seahawks, @ Raiders, vs Cardinals

Jets (3-3)
Games Remaining: @ 49ers, @ Seahawks

3) Conference Record

Jets: 6-4
Games Remaining: vs Bills, vs Dolphins

Patriots: 5-5
Games Remaining: @ Raiders, @ Bills
============================================

I've left the Dolphins out of this topic for now, but being tied record wise with us are still obviously very much alive.

Here are possible ways for us to win the division....

============================================
Patriots Win AFC East

1)
Patriots: (4-0)
Jets (2-2)

Result: Patriots (11-5) finish ahead of the Jets (10-6)

2)
Patriots (4-0)
Jets (3-1) w/ loss against either Bills or Dolphins

Result: Patriots (11-5) win tiebreaker over Jets (11-5)
============================================

I love your positive perspective.. But here is the real deal.. the pats are in a playoff trouble right now..

They need to win out and a lot of help to make the playoffs..

And then we need to show up on defense obviously the defense will not help us win championships..

 

[Wendel]

Re: AFC East Divison Champion Race: The situation.

This team has not one three straight games once this season, they will not now go 4-0 out of nowhere.

In fact, we've only had two winning streaks all year, and they were both the minimum (2 games)

 

[PATSYLICIOUS]

Re: AFC East Divison Champion Race: The situation.

They need to win out and a lot of help to make the playoffs..

If we win out, the only help we need is for the Ravens to lose 2 more games. They have Washington, Pittsburgh, Dallas, Jville on their schedule. I wouldn't consider 2 of those teams beating the Ravens a ton of help. It's possible they could go 3-1 but highly unlikely. If we take care of Seattle, I know I'm going to be glued to that Ravens-Skins game next Sunday night like it's one of our own games.

 

[upstater1]

Re: AFC East Divison Champion Race: The situation.

I love your positive perspective.. But here is the real deal.. the pats are in a playoff trouble right now..

They need to win out and a lot of help to make the playoffs..

And then we need to show up on defense obviously the defense will not help us win championships..

I don't see this as needing a lot of help.

They need to win out, sure.

The Ravens have 4 tough games left.

The Jets must beat Buffalo and Miami.

Chances of the Ravens winning 3 games are 75% when you consider their competition.

Chances of the Jets beating both Miami and Buffalo are probably somewhere around 67%. Chances of the Jets beating both Miami and Buffalo, and at least one of their other 2 games are around 60%.

So, New England has an even chance of getting to the playoffs if they can win the next 4.

Actually, if New England wins the next 4, I expect them to be in the playoffs.

 

[Disco Volante]

Re: AFC East Champion: The situation.

What does it look like with Miami involved?

Now added.

 

[Yehoodi]

============================================
1) Jets (8-4)
Remaining Schedule: @ 49ers, vs Bills, @ Seahawks, vs Dolphins
Strength of Schedule: 18-29 (38%) [Home: 2 / Road: 2]

2) Patriots (7-5)
Remaining Schedule: @ Seahawks, @ Raiders, vs Cardinals, @ Bills
Strength of Schedule: 17-30 (36%) [Home: 1 / Road: 3]

3) Dolphins (7-5)
Remaining Schedule: @ Bills, vs 49ers, @ Chiefs, @ Jets
Strength of Schedule: 20-28 (42%) [Home: 1 / Road: 3]
============================================

Jet's currently have a one game lead on the Patriots and Dolphins with four games to go. They also hold the tiebreaker advantage, with a better division record than both teams.

If the divison comes down to a tie-breaker...

============================================
1) Head-to-Head

Patriots / Jets = Tied (1-1)
Patriots / Dolphins = Tied (1-1)
Jets / Dolphins = Jets (1-0) lead, with one game remaining

2) Division Record

Jets: 3-1
Games Remaining: vs Buffalo, vs Miami

Patriots: 3-2
Games Remaining: @ Buffalo

Dolphins (2-2)
Games Remaining: @ Bills, @ Jets

3) Common Games

Dolphins (5-1)
Games Remaining: vs 49ers, @ Chiefs

Patriots (4-1)
Games Remaining: @ Seahawks, @ Raiders, vs Cardinals

Jets (3-3)
Games Remaining: @ 49ers, @ Seahawks

4) Conference Record

Jets: 6-4
Games Remaining: vs Bills, vs Dolphins

Dolphins (5-4)
Games Remaining: @ Bills, @ Chiefs, @ Jets

Patriots: 5-5
Games Remaining: @ Raiders, @ Bills
============================================

excellent job, but i think "common games" includes the AFC east divisional games along with the two west divisions. So we should have 12 common games in the end in a two way tie and 10 in a threeway tie. in a two way tie, say between the jets-ne, then the two games against mia-buf [4 each teamm] would be common, in a threeway tie mia-nyj-ne, just the two buf games would be common. i am not 100% sure of this you might want to check.

 

[thewaylifeshouldbe]

Re: AFC East Champion: The situation.

My prediction:

....... but I expect the ball control game that we can do with Cassel and the backs will eat them up, same with Seattle.

Uh, ball control didn't look too good today.

3 away games (not that home games have been stellar this year), and a receiving corps in AZ that could easily torch us downfield does not bode well.

Can be done, just not sure this mish-mash, starting to look tired, crippled by injury defense can do it.

 

[Disco Volante]

excellent job, but i think "common games" includes the AFC east divisional games along with the two west divisions. So we should have 12 common games in the end in a two way tie and 10 in a threeway tie. in a two way tie, say between the jets-ne, then the two games against mia-buf [4 each teamm] would be common, in a threeway tie mia-nyj-ne, just the two buf games would be common. i am not 100% sure of this you might want to check.

Thank you sir.

I excluded the AFC East divisional games because in order for the common games tiebreaker to take place, the two/three teams would have to have identical divisional records anyways.

 

[Cartwright]

Re: AFC East Champion: The situation.

I'd consider the Broncos, who just beat the red hot Jets on the road by three scores - a quality team.

LOL, against Cutler with a busted hand on the first play and no running backs available? That quality team? The team with NO DEFENSE? Granted, they are getting better, but c'mon

 

[Disco Volante]

Re: AFC East Champion: The situation.

LOL, against Cutler with a busted hand on the first play and no running backs available? That quality team? The team with NO DEFENSE? Granted, they are getting better, but c'mon

In the last three weeks, they've had road wins against both the 8-4 Falcons and 8-4 Jets, despite an ugly Raiders game in between.

They're also one of three teams to have beaten the 9-3 Buccaneers. The Broncos, despite their inconsistency deserve to be called a quality team.

 

[Angry Man]

Seattle and Oakland I feel are certain wins. Arizona could be a close game but ultimately I feel that can be a win if the execution is done right. If we can get these three wins and everything else falls in place then the game against Buffalo will be insignifigant. We'll see.

Edit: By "insignifigant" I'm refering to the whole picture of things if we win the next three. Of course winning against Buffalo regardless is great, but it would be nicer if by then the race to the playoffs is secured so then our fate doesn't hinge on that last game.

 

[NEPatriot]

We didn't take advantage of some good opportunities to claim AFC East championship because we lost some important games.

It's not a good situation.

 

[Cartwright]

Re: AFC East Champion: The situation.

In the last three weeks, they've had road wins against both the 8-4 Falcons and 8-4 Jets, despite an ugly Raiders game in between.

They're also one of three teams to have beaten the 9-3 Buccaneers. The Broncos, despite their inconsistency deserve to be called a quality team.

They do appear to be getting better, but not sold on them. Losses to Chiefs, Jags, and Raiders, and a gift versus SD.

 

[mgteich]

If Miami wins out, won't they win the division?

 

[upstater1]

If Miami wins out, won't they win the division?

Yes indeed. But that's a big if, IMO.