6-0 the rest of the way? Let's look at the signs.

[JSn]

Warning, this post is probably kinda boring if you're into the more sensational topics. Just thought I'd share my findings from a skim of the box score from Thursdays heart-attack game.

Offense:

One thing that has gone slightly unnoticed in the Jets game is the first come-back.

End of 2nd - TD
Only score of the third - TD
Opening the 3rd FG

That's 17 unanswered points, folks.

Another interesting figure about TD drives:
TD#1 - 10 plays, 68 yards in 1:29
TD#2 - 7 plays, 78 yards in 2:25
TD#3 - 8 plays, 62 yards in 1:03 (no timeouts)

Who got the points? Gaffney (TD, 2pt Conv), Moss, Watson

Who were the receivers in the final drive?
1) Watson for 9 yards
2) Watson for 11 yards
3) Welker for 17 yards
4) Welker for 14 yards
5) Moss for 16 yards

Still mad at Watson?

Well they obviously stopped us from running the ball, right? Wrong.
We went aerial because we were behind.

We had 3 more rushing first downs than the Jets.
We had only 15 fewer yards rushing than the Jets.
We had 14 fewer rushing plays than the Jets.

We had a higher red zone efficiency, as well.

So the mistakes hurt us, but they didn't kill us. Watson and Koppen aren't headed for the doghouse, they'll be making corrections.

Why did we lose?

Defense? I'll say no. Flog me if you will.

Our defense faltered stopping them on third down giving them 56% efficiency (9-16) versus our 28% efficiency (4-14).

Aside of that, our defense had better numbers all around allowing lower gains on almost all other offensive statistics!

Average gain per pass: Jets - 6.5, Pats 7.1
Average gain per rush: Jets - 3.6, Pats 5.0

My feeling is that the botched Kick coverage, much more than our defense, cost us this game. We know we have good special teams, they just haven't been real special the last couple of weeks. Correct that and spend next week working through the fundamentals with the D and we have a very real chance of matching our toughest competitors.

I expect that we will be chasing the red-zone harder now than we did in any game prior to Thursday night and the plan has to be to get ahead early and the slow the game down. Not rocket surgery, but we have to tools guys.

We stop that kick return and we probably win that game. But because we played from behind we got an eye-full of Cassel and that will only make things better from here on in. Not one team ahead of us can write him off.

A picture to make the post more interesting:

This is Brett watching us tie it up with one second left. Warms my heart.
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[fgssand]

Warning, this post is probably kinda boring if you're into the more sensational topics. Just thought I'd share my findings from a skim of the box score from Thursdays heart-attack game.

Offense:

One thing that has gone slightly unnoticed in the Jets game is the first come-back.

End of 2nd - TD
Only score of the third - TD
Opening the 3rd FG

That's 17 unanswered points, folks.

Another interesting figure about TD drives:
TD#1 - 10 plays, 68 yards in 1:29
TD#2 - 7 plays, 78 yards in 2:25
TD#3 - 8 plays, 62 yards in 1:03 (no timeouts)

Who got the points? Gaffney (TD, 2pt Conv), Moss, Watson

Who were the receivers in the final drive?
1) Watson for 9 yards
2) Watson for 11 yards
3) Welker for 17 yards
4) Welker for 14 yards
5) Moss for 16 yards

Still mad at Watson?

Well they obviously stopped us from running the ball, right? Wrong.
We went aerial because we were behind.

We had 3 more rushing first downs than the Jets.
We had only 15 fewer yards rushing than the Jets.
We had 14 fewer rushing plays than the Jets.

We had a higher red zone efficiency, as well.

So the mistakes hurt us, but they didn't kill us. Watson and Koppen aren't headed for the doghouse, they'll be making corrections.

Why did we lose?

Defense? I'll say no. Flog me if you will.

Our defense faltered stopping them on third down giving them 56% efficiency (9-16) versus our 28% efficiency (4-14).

Aside of that, our defense had better numbers all around allowing lower gains on almost all other offensive statistics!

Average gain per pass: Jets - 6.5, Pats 7.1
Average gain per rush: Jets - 3.6, Pats 5.0

My feeling is that the botched Kick coverage, much more than our defense, cost us this game. We know we have good special teams, they just haven't been real special the last couple of weeks. Correct that and spend next week working through the fundamentals with the D and we have a very real chance of matching our toughest competitors.

I expect that we will be chasing the red-zone harder now than we did in any game prior to Thursday night and the plan has to be to get ahead early and the slow the game down. Not rocket surgery, but we have to tools guys.

We stop that kick return and we probably win that game. But because we played from behind we got an eye-full of Cassel and that will only make things better from here on in. Not one team ahead of us can write him off.

A picture to make the post more interesting:

This is Brett watching us tie it up with one second left. Warms my heart.
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|

Nice post, as usual JSN....however, when team overcomes all to tie it at 24-24 and then again at 31-31 - defense cannot allow drives down the stretch. Much to like about the "D" and totally understand how injuries have taken their toll resulting in patchwork in secondary, LB & now DL. Still, must get off field on 3rd down at key drives down the stretch (would love to see 3rd down stats for the last two drives). They named the season "finish" in the locker room -- if don't start finishing the other team off when we have them, we will be finished.

 

[blackglass3]

Very interesting stuff. Thanks, JSn.

 

[SVN]

3rd down and special teams were cause of the loss.
also , i know watson made plays but his hands are very unreliable.We dont really have much margin for error. i really really hope we use the no huddle more but Jmcd has been inconsistent this season so who knows. at times he calls great series and the calls inside runs to faulk and evans with jenkins bang in the middle.

 

[Lansdowne]

This past game will be a turning point, in a good way. Flash back to this time 7 years ago, when the Pats battled the Rams in Foxboro but fell short. At that point, the Pats were 5-5 and 2 games behind the Jets for the division lead. But they showed they could hang with the contenders, and they never lost another game that year. Yes, it's different in that the Pats had a better secondary, but the Pats have also pulled through with weaker secondaries (Hank Poteat? Earthwind Moreland?). Win the next 6 and it's 12-4 and looking good.

 

[ayjackson]

our rushing attack was Cassel on scrambles.

This is the second game in three weeks we've lost due to mistakes (Indy). I can see us outplaying the opposition in all six remaining games, but what I've seen is that mistakes will likely cost us some of those games.

 

[MrBigglesWorth]

it sounds like Gost has covered for a bad special teams unit.

the question is why they are not covering kickoffs that well. it's not typical of a BB team

 

[MrBigglesWorth]

our rushing attack was Cassel on scrambles.

This is the second game in three weeks we've lost due to mistakes (Indy). I can see us outplaying the opposition in all six remaining games, but what I've seen is that mistakes will likely cost us some of those games.

what mistakes? I think some reffing calls were jsut as crucial

 

[Jimke]

I think you are being a tad optomistic even thinking 6-0.

From what I have observed the last few weeks, quarterback is
not going to be a problem. Cassel's progress has amazed me.
Even without Brady, the offense still has a lot of good players.

I differ with you on special teams. The Pats are fortunate that
Gostowski offtimes kicks the ball into the end zone. In three
of the four games I attended this year, the opposition had a long
kickoff runback.

The defense is the problem. They let the opposition off the
hook on third down. They do not apply enough consistent
pressure on the quarterback. This puts too much of a burden
on the linebackers and defensive backs who have to cover the
receivers.

We will get a clue next Sunday as to how the Patriots will do
the rest of the season. The Pats rarely lose back to back games.
A loss to Miami would be a bad omen. It would make it almost
impossible to win the division and might even cost them a wildcard
spot.

 

[JSn]

I think you are being a tad optomistic even thinking 6-0.

...

I differ with you on special teams. The Pats are fortunate that
Gostowski offtimes kicks the ball into the end zone. In three
of the four games I attended this year, the opposition had a long
kickoff runback.

The defense is the problem. They let the opposition off the
hook on third down. They do not apply enough consistent
pressure on the quarterback. This puts too much of a burden
on the linebackers and defensive backs who have to cover the
receivers.

I didn't actually, reach this verdict, I don't think. Just looked at some facts from the game.

Also, I think you mis-understand the term differ. The kick-off team needs work, for sure.

The bottom line is we can have "feelings" coming away from the game. I find the numbers encouraging. If anyone can correct those deficiencies with a couple extra days, our guys can. Will they? Hard to say.

 

[Gwedd]

Rocket Surgery

Heh.. I like that.

I also like your post. Good write up. Would that some of the professional writers out there would also start to use facts rather than quick observations.

My own assessment of the game was that it compared very well with the Superbowl against the Packers. We got behind, started to catch up, and then that bassid Desmond Howard ran a kickoff back. Just killed us. I was having flashbacks to that game all through the Jets game.

I have to say that, more than any mental mistakes, more than any dropped balls, allowing a runback for a TD was what killed us. If the Patriots stop that runback, we win. Plain and simple.

Respects,

 

[BlitzFritz]

I am down with the 6-0 bandwagon....not logically, just emotionally.

It is totally possible -- beat miami and pittsburgh, then 4 soft games, finish 12-4.

As for the causes of the Indy and Jets close losses, I find all of our detailed analyses interesting. But in the end, the game comes down to a few plays. One weak link, and we lose. No weak links, someone makes a play, and we win. We used to OWN the last 5 minutes, think back to that long run over 2003-2004.

My own view is that we are missing some key veterans, and we have a lot more youth on the team. They screw up sometimes.

But that is why i feel ok. These rookies and this team are getting better.

I'm looking for the 6-0 end of season run (like 2001).

 

[NEPatriot]

We have to win all 6 games to have a spot in a playoff game and hang on to our AFC East title.

 

[Wendel]

Uh yeah, we haven't even won 3 straight games this year yet we're going to triple our current longest streak (2 games) with 2 of our toughest opponents of the season (Steelers/Cardinals) still to go?

This team will be lucky to go 3-3 at this point.

Bad teams like the Chiefs lose games they should win, the Patriots have done this 2 weeks in a row. The Chiefs "should" be 4-5 and still in a division hunt, but alas their season is over. The Patriots "should" be 8-2 and in a #1 seed hunt, alas they will probably miss the playoffs.

 

[richpats]

This is the second game in three weeks we've lost due to mistakes (Indy). I can see us outplaying the opposition in all six remaining games, but what I've seen is that mistakes will likely cost us some of those games.

Good observation. No matter what positives we take away from those 2 games (and there are a good deal of them), there were still critical mistakes that were made. Personally I think this team can play with any team in the league, but some of these situational blunders make me wonder whether they have what it takes to go far in the playoffs. Hopefully we turn the tide in Miami.

 

[Pat the Pats Fan]

Jsn, good write up as usual. Agree with your comments.

To me, the Pats didn't get beat in either of these games.

 

[blackglass3]

Uh yeah, we haven't even won 3 straight games this year yet we're going to triple our current longest streak (2 games) with 2 of our toughest opponents of the season (Steelers/Cardinals) still to go?

This team will be lucky to go 3-3 at this point.

Bad teams like the Chiefs lose games they should win, the Patriots have done this 2 weeks in a row. The Chiefs "should" be 4-5 and still in a division hunt, but alas their season is over. The Patriots "should" be 8-2 and in a #1 seed hunt, alas they will probably miss the playoffs.

Should we still bench Matt Cassel? And maybe we can get the mods to unlock the genius "Disapproval of Matt Cassel" thread you started a few weeks ago.

Every time the Pats lose a game you start looking over the side of the bandwagon for a soft spot to land when you jump off. It's almost at the point where I hope they don't make the playoffs so jagoffs like you go cheer for the Titans or Giants or whatever flavor of the week the media will be on the jock of in January.

 

[darkone]

I am down with the 6-0 bandwagon....not logically, just emotionally.

It is totally possible -- beat miami and pittsburgh, then 4 soft games, finish 12-4.

In years past, Arizona might be considered soft but not this year. It is at home but still ..... I would say 3 tough games and 3 easier games (although Buffalo may be tight as well). Only because BB is the coach, does this team have a shot at 6-0, and also because Ariz. and Pitt. are at home.

At this point, I would say at Miami and at Buffalo will be tough division games on the road with a lot at stake for both teams. The Patriots will split these. (1-1) They will also split the Arizona and Pittsburgh games (1-1). They should win against Oakland and Seattle, barring miscues (2-0). So, I think 4-2 is most reasonable, and who they lose to will determine their WC status if any.

 

[JoeSixPat]

Not a bad recap JSN - but let me simplify even more.

Every defense and every offense has one or two bad plays in every game.

Every officiating crew makes mistakes in every game as well.

Sometimes those mistakes are inconsequential and hardly noticed.

Sometimes those mistakes happen at the most inopportune times and have a major impact on the outcome of the game.

In the Patriots case, there were a few calls and a few plays both the defenese and officiating crew would prefer to do over - and that was the difference in the game.

 

[fumbrunner]

Not a bad recap JSN - but let me simplify even more.

Every defense and every offense has one or two bad plays in every game.

Every officiating crew makes mistakes in every game as well.

Sometimes those mistakes are inconsequential and hardly noticed.

Sometimes those mistakes happen at the most inopportune times and have a major impact on the outcome of the game.

In the Patriots case, there were a few calls and a few plays both the defenese and officiating crew would prefer to do over - and that was the difference in the game.

Agreed. The analysis is good and all that, but the fact of the matter is two key plays lost the game for the Pats. The call on Vrabel, where we would have held them to a field goal, and the 3rd and 15 in overtime. Stops on either of those would have put us in a position to win the game.