PATs Offense: 4th and 6th in two stats

[JR4]

Two very important stats.

PATs are 4th in 3rd down conversion rate at 46%
PATs are 6th in 1st downs per game almost 21

what's interesting is that teams with those kinds of stats are scoring
one TD or more per game than the PATs.

With those numbers PATs should have at least 24 to 26 points/game.

This is a red zone problem. PATs can move the ball with the best of them
they just don't score the TDs in the red zone like other teams.
This has to do with the QB passing for TD in the red zone.

Matt hasn't had a TD 10yds or less since before the bye and he hasn't had
a TD for two games now.
PATs offense is good enough to get to the red zone consistently it just
doesn't score enough when it gets there.

What's the solution? More passing attempts in the red zone?
Maybe McDaniels and Bellichick just don't think Matt is accurate enough for
red zone passing.
This seems to be the case based on how they have been calling
the game in the red zone. Maybe they are saving their red zone passing plays for latter in the season.

What ever the case, PATs will have problems when facing Offenses
that can score unless PATs red zone TDs/game increases
JEsTs have been getting 28+ pts/game, 3rd best in the league. While
PATs have been getting less than 21 pts/game
This could be a game PATs lack of Red Zone production catches up with them.
If BB has any special red zone plays, I hope he uses them Thursday.

 

[PatsFan2]

Two very important stats.

PATs are 4th in 3rd down conversion rate at 46%
PATs are 6th in 1st downs per game almost 21

what's interesting is that teams with those kinds of stats are scoring
one TD or more per game than the PATs.

With those numbers PATs should have at least 24 to 26 points/game.

This is a red zone problem. PATs can move the ball with the best of them
they just don't score the TDs in the red zone like other teams.
This has to do with the QB passing for TD in the red zone.

Matt hasn't had a TD 10yds or less since before the bye and he hasn't had
a TD for two games now.
PATs offense is good enough to get to the red zone consistently it just
doesn't score enough when it gets there.

What's the solution? More passing attempts in the red zone?
Maybe McDaniels and Bellichick just don't think Matt is accurate enough for
red zone passing.
This seems to be the case based on how they have been calling
the game in the red zone. Maybe they are saving their red zone passing plays for latter in the season.

What ever the case, PATs will have problems when facing Offenses
that can score unless PATs red zone TDs/game increases
JEsTs have been getting 28+ pts/game, 3rd best in the league. While
PATs have been getting less than 21 pts/game
This could be a game PATs lack of Red Zone production catches up with them.
If BB has any special red zone plays, I hope he uses them Thursday.

Well Matt Cassel have been victimized by unexplainable TD Drops by both Gaffney and Moss in prior weeks. Put those Two TD's in the Stats and the numbers would be even more impressive. From what i have seen from Cassel's play over the weeks he looks like he can make all the Throws.

 

[BPF]

Well Matt Cassel have been victimized by unexplainable TD Drops by both Gaffney and Moss in prior weeks. Put those Two TD's in the Stats and the numbers would be even more impressive. From what i have seen from Cassel's play over the weeks he looks like he can make all the Throws.

The Gaffney play wouldn't be a red zone score, it would have been a 39-yd TD. As far as red zone production goes, just like everything else as Cassel continues to play more and more the teams TD % will increase as the season wears on.

 

[NYCPatsFan]

Two very important stats.

....

What's the solution? More passing attempts in the red zone?
Maybe McDaniels and Bellichick just don't think Matt is accurate enough for
red zone passing.
This seems to be the case based on how they have been calling
the game in the red zone. Maybe they are saving their red zone passing plays for latter in the season.

What ever the case, PATs will have problems when facing Offenses
that can score unless PATs red zone TDs/game increases
JEsTs have been getting 28+ pts/game, 3rd best in the league. While
PATs have been getting less than 21 pts/game
This could be a game PATs lack of Red Zone production catches up with them.
If BB has any special red zone plays, I hope he uses them Thursday.

Nice research. You raise an interesting possibility that maybe MC isn't accurate enough for the red zone passing.

Assuming that someone hasn't done this yet, we could compile all our calls in the red zone this season and compare each strategy and its resultant score. That will also shed light on how much we relied on running/passing in the red zone.

Don't agree with the notion of us saving plays for later during the season because I think it is a big myth.

 

[xmarkd400x]

As BB says:

In the red zone, the defense has less field to defend, so it makes it easier for them. You can't run Moss deep to take two defenders out of the picture anymore. Also, windows are smaller and opportunities are more fleeting. Passing effectively is harder in the red zone than anywhere else on the field and Matt Cassel studies hard and makes strides every week. He will get better and so will the team.

 

[JR4]

As BB says:

In the red zone, the defense has less field to defend, so it makes it easier for them. You can't run Moss deep to take two defenders out of the picture anymore. Also, windows are smaller and opportunities are more fleeting. Passing effectively is harder in the red zone than anywhere else on the field and Matt Cassel studies hard and makes strides every week. He will get better and so will the team.

Ok I agree he could get better in the red zone .... IF .. they were calling passing plays in the Red Zone. But it seems they are reluctant to do that.
Certainly they pass it far far less than they did when TB was in there.

If they continue to not call many passing plays in the red zone ...
how will Matt get better?

 

[BionicPatriot]

Ok I agree he could get better in the red zone .... IF .. they were calling passing plays in the Red Zone. But it seems they are reluctant to do that.
Certainly they pass it far far less than they did when TB was in there.

If they continue to not call many passing plays in the red zone ...
how will Matt get better?

They can't just say "Hey Matt, chuck it and see what you can do"

They're developing him as the season goes on. The redzone is the hardest spot for a QB. All his throws have to be pinpoint accurate because you have no cushion and the defense has not even 10 yards to defend. Although it's easy to run one in, it's a lot easier playing pass defense there. IMO, I'd call more fade routes if anything.

But I believe they're just gaining more and more trust to have Matt make certain throws. I damn sure know 2-3 weeks ago Matt wasn't making as many throws down the field as he was on sunday. I say give him some more time and you'll see the production pick up.

 

[JR4]

.......

IMO, I'd call more fade routes if anything.
....

exactly ... but they're not even doing that. There are plays that are not so risky but nothing so far.
This may be a result of what they see in practice and when he does well
in practice they'll do more RZ passing in games.
Maybe this is the week they turn him loose.

 

[Deus Irae]

According to CBS Sportsline, Cassel has attempted 42 passes inside the red zone. He's 18-42, completing under 43% of his passes in that area. There's been no lack of red zone passing.

 

[NYCPatsFan]

According to CBS Sportsline, Cassel has attempted 42 passes inside the red zone. He's 18-42, completing under 43% of his passes in that area. There's been no lack of red zone passing.

Thanks for that stat.

I estimated that # to be around the 25-30% mark. Guess the coaches have been giving MC a lot more credit than we thought of.

 

[Lloyd_Christmas]

I think Cassel has really improved these last few weeks. I'm sure as the season goes on, his red zone passing will get better as well.

Last week's game was the first time that I felt our passing offense was really in rythm. Matt was throwing not only to Moss, Welker, and Faulk, but also the TEs, Gaffney, and even Sam Aiken. Not sure if that means we is going through his reads better or if they are just designing plays that utilize more of the weapons. Hopefully it is his reads improving, but in either case, it was the most effective we have been all year.

It wasn't quite to the 2007 level of passing attack, but it had a bit of that feel to it. I was greatly impressed.

 

[wistahpatsfan]

I think Cassel has really improved these last few weeks. I'm sure as the season goes on, his red zone passing will get better as well.

Last week's game was the first time that I felt our passing offense was really in rythm. Matt was throwing not only to Moss, Welker, and Faulk, but also the TEs, Gaffney, and even Sam Aiken. Not sure if that means we is going through his reads better or if they are just designing plays that utilize more of the weapons. Hopefully it is his reads improving, but in either case, it was the most effective we have been all year.

It wasn't quite to the 2007 level of passing attack, but it had a bit of that feel to it. I was greatly impressed.

Good post.
I was thinking something similar. I also think the stats outlined by the OP show how well the O-line is playing, especially on third. Red zone effectiveness is more dependent on the QB performance at that point. Based on Cassel's progress so far, I gotta believe that's what they're working on this week.

 

[JR4]

According to CBS Sportsline, Cassel has attempted 42 passes inside the red zone. He's 18-42, completing under 43% of his passes in that area. There's been no lack of red zone passing.

and how many of the 18 completed how many went for a TD???
2 or 3?
See if you find any passing TD's when PATs were less than 10 and
goal. You might find 1.

Again with PATs being in top 6 for 1st dns/game and 3rd Dn conversion their offense should yield more points per game.

To say there is no lack of RZ passing is miss leading. There is a problem
with RZ passing ... results ...mainly LACK of TDs.
Let a team complete 90% of its RZ passes but if yields No TDs what good
is it?

There is a problem with PATs RZ offense and it has to do with Matt Cassel
or the calls being given him. IMO

 

[TruthSeeker]

Matt Cassel is not being asked to win games; he's being asked not to lose them. It's no surprise that the Patriots scoring offense in the red zone is not what other teams is because of the huge focus on not turning over the ball. Again, Matt has done a really good job of not creating turnovers - and the Patriots have a 6-3 record to show for it. If you want more red zone TDs, then you'll also have more red zone turnovers.

For years, the most frustrating part of Tom Brady's game for me was the 3rd and goal turnover. It never seemed to happen on 1st or 2nd down, but 3rd & goal was very dangerous. I'd be rooting not for the TD, but to avoid the turnover! I (and I expect BB as well) don't want to risk the turnover against most teams the Patriots play. It's just not worth it; they'll win because of their defense if the offense scores occasionally and doesn't turn the ball over.

It's 2001 all over again - with the exception that Brady could and did get it done when his back against the wall and Matt Cassel hasn't even been asked to. A perfect example was the Colts game - BB deciding at the last minute to go for the "safe" field goal instead of the risky (but, IMO, necessary) TD. Alas, their defense couldn't hold and it turned into a loss. BB just doesn't want to put Matt Cassel into a must succeed situation if he can avoid it.

 

[JR4]

...and how many of the 18 completed how many went for a TD???

Follow up, answer my own question:

In the Red Zone
Attempted passes = 42
Completed Passes=19
TD=5

That's 1 TD for every 8 passes in the Red Zone.
Since PATs are averaging less than 5 passes a game in the Red Zone thats Not a very good thing.

It seems, PATs have a very weak pass offense in the Red Zone.
Stop their run game in the Red Zone and you reduce them to getting field goals.

 

[Fencer]

Good analysis guys.

Brady used to be a dink and dunker who happened to excel in the clutch.

Cassell is a dink and dunker who can't get it done yet in red zone.

To have any hope of going deep into the playoffs, Cassell has to continue narrowing the gap with young-Brady. (Obviously, approaching mature-Brady this year is beyond unrealistic.)