ESPN: Mayo one of the top 5 most overrated players in the league

[PATRIOTSFANINPA]

If Mayo started pressuring and sacking the QB he would be a complete athlete on this team - For now he is a tackling machine and as a rokie you can't expect it all

In 2009,I do expect him to have 7-10 sacks in his second campaign and a year in the system

 

[chris_in_sunnyvale]

I remember watching Mayo make a few tackles on the opposite sideline from where he was lining up at...throw out plays like that and the numbers would probably drop. Not too mention a play here and there where he runs the back down from BEHIND to save a huge play...yup, overrated.

This is also a good point. Joyner is focusing on POA plays and ignoring the plays where he may be coming from the backside of a play and saving a long gainer.

Joyner may show Mayo struggling at the POA, but considering he's a rookie it's not all too surprising. Mayo may be making up for it in other ways that Joyner is not acknowledging.

Regards,
Chris

 

[tart]

Re: Mayo one of the top 5 most overrated players in the league

P.S. I have a lot of respect for KC Joyner's analysis in general; He was hired by ESPN well into his career as the Bill James of football so he's not just some talking head. His books (very much like Baseball Abstract for football) are highly praised.

I do as well, I've enjoyed him for quite awhile. He knows his stuff, and I don't doubt there is a certain bit of validity to what he is saying. Wish he would've gone a bit more in-depth though with a more comprehensive analysis, rather than just focusing on two stats.

 

[upstater1]

One way for Mayo to improve these stats is to not try to make tackles on runners who are further down the field. Then his average will improve.

For now, though, he's as bad as that horrible Brandon Marshall, apparently. I guarantee you that Reche Caldwell did better than 7 yards a catch.

 

[wdkantro2]

Re: Mayo one of the top 5 most overrated players in the league

Can someone explain why he claims Marshall's YPA is 7.1, when it is clearly 12.3?

 

[BradyManny]

L O L

ESPN - Joyner: Mistakes stunting Jay Cutler's growth

He's accusing Jerod of being an overrated linebacker/player because his tackles are on average 7.2 yards up the field. He doesn't take into account that the D-line and OLBs are supposed to have the first shot at the RB, generally speaking.

I pointed out in another thread why Joyner's stat breakdowns are horribly misleading, particularly for the Patriots.

Here's a gem from Joyner:

His run-stuffing prowess is probably even worse than that if the 7.2 yards per attempt on the POA runs is added to the analysis.

What this doesn't account for is that Mayo is the fastest member of the front 7, there have been a few plays where a running back got through the first two levels and Mayo went and chased him down. I guess he should've let the running back just go on for a bigger run or a TD, I'm sure he's really pissed that it hurt his POA numbers in Joyner's stat system.

Joyner is the reason why blindly looking at stats and box scores to "break down" a game is a dangerous thing.

Or to put it another way, Bill Belichick has thought enough of Mayo to play him on more snaps than any other defender save for two, and has left a HOF linebacker in Junior Seau sitting in retirement in order to do so. Who knows more about football? Bill Belichick? Or some guy who thinks breaking down a game means looking at charts and box scores and trying to decipher things from numbers.

 

[Ice Cold Bruschi]

Re: Mayo one of the top 5 most overrated players in the league

Because clearly Mayo is just getting blown off the line every play and not playing in coverage at all, nope not at all

 

[Disco Volante]

Re: Mayo one of the top 5 most overrated players in the league

Just reading this thread title hurts my head.

Not being sarcastic either, I actually start getting a headache.

 

[Sicilian]

If Mayo started pressuring and sacking the QB he would be a complete athlete on this team - For now he is a tackling machine and as a rokie you can't expect it all

In 2009,I do expect him to have 7-10 sacks in his second campaign and a year in the system

ILBs in Belichick's system don't tend to get a lot of sacks, do they? I can't recall one who had 7 sacks... McGinest, Colvin, Vrabel, etc were always the double digit sack guys, but they're on the outside where it's expected.

 

[PatsFan24]

L O L

ESPN - Joyner: Mistakes stunting Jay Cutler's growth

He's accusing Jerod of being an overrated linebacker/player because his tackles are on average 7.2 yards up the field. He doesn't take into account that the D-line and OLBs are supposed to have the first shot at the RB, generally speaking.

LOL espn proves once again they are a joke of a network

 

[fnordcircle]

Re: Mayo one of the top 5 most overrated players in the league

Quote about Brandon Marshall:

"Marshall also is averaging only 7.0 YPA when facing someone in coverage"

As opposed to what? The times when they just let him run down the field with no one on him?

Facing someone in coverage = man to man coverage.

SO the other times weren't when they just let him run down the field but when the defense is in zone coverage.

Don't worry keep watching the games and you'll learn about the sport of football!

 

[chris_in_sunnyvale]

Re: Mayo one of the top 5 most overrated players in the league

Quote about Brandon Marshall:

"Marshall also is averaging only 7.0 YPA when facing someone in coverage"

As opposed to what? The times when they just let him run down the field with no one on him?

This is an incomplete quote. The quote continues, "whether it be a CB, LB or safety. Last year he averaged 7.4 YPA against CBs."

The implication is that LBs and safeties (who should be a huge mismatch) are keeping him in check in addition to CBs.

That being said, Joyner probably wants to re-evaluate his Marshall critique. After his torching of Antonio Cromartie in week 2 (18 catches!), the guy has seen routine double-teams, yet Cutler continued to lock onto him. That's going to bring down the YPA on anyone, no matter how good they are.

Regards,
Chris

 

[signbabybrady]

:scream: FU**IN espn man its such BS how much they hate on the Pats. The kid has played 8 games and prematurely he is on an overated list. He is having a good year for any player and he is rookie where is the overated

 

[Keegs]

how can he be overrated?

no one is talking about him.

Godammnit i hate people. ESPN is a bunch of jerkstores.

 

[xmarkd400x]

Jerod Mayo, LB, Patriots

Mayo is a perfect example of a player whose tackles total raises his perceived performance level well above what it truly is. Mayo won the rookie defensive player of the month award in October largely because of his 24 tackles in that period.

Mayo's point-of-attack (POA) run metrics for the season show that he actually is struggling quite badly in one of the primary functions for his position. I have broken down six of the Patriots' eight games, and in that sample, Mayo has been at the run POA 34 times.

Ok so far.

He has defeated only six of those blocks, which equates to a POA win percentage of 17.7. If historical trends are a good indicator, that would place him in the bottom quarter of the league at season's end.

What is the criteria for "defeating" a block? Also, where does he stand now (Instead of 'at seasons end')? What are the "historical trends"?

His run-stuffing prowess is probably even worse than that if the 7.2 yards per attempt on the POA runs is added to the analysis.

I'm not even sure about this one. It doesn't make sense to me.


Well.... if he has all this data, I'd sure love to see it. I like CHFF because they back up their facts with more facts. I would like to see KC Joyner's body of evidence.

 

[spacecrime]

Re: Mayo one of the top 5 most overrated players in the league

Quote about Brandon Marshall:

"Marshall also is averaging only 7.0 YPA when facing someone in coverage"

As opposed to what? The times when they just let him run down the field with no one on him?

too funny!

 

[spacecrime]

Re: Mayo one of the top 5 most overrated players in the league

How can Mayo be overated. Has he made the Pro Bowl or something?

First you say a player is great. Then you say he isn't as great as you thought he was, and therefore he was over-rated. When they think they were right the first time, he will then become under-rated because even though they are going back to their original assessment, they are judging from when they have puka-ed him right at the moment.

 

[DarrylS]

Is the press that bored that they have to come up with this crap.. maybe we need a good TO or Winslow meltdown so they can have something significant to write about. Maybe they can look up Michael Vick to see how he is doing, the Joey Porter/Matt Jones situation..

 

[Deus Irae]

I don't know why people are getting their panties in a bunch about this. Mayo has made improvements, but he had the same problems in camp and during the exhibition games. One analyst's opinion is that those problems mean Mayo is overrated. Who cares what the analysts think they see after 8 games of a player's rookie season, other than in the most general sense?

 

[fnordcircle]

Who cares what the analysts think

Is pretty much all you need to ask.

Granted it is hard to consider a rookie overrated when it's not like he's been getting hyped like Merriman was in his rookie year, for example, but ultimately what the hell does it matter what anyone thinks?