National perspective on Cassel

[BradyManny]

I almost barfed on the way to work today as I heard some guy from Football Outsiders ripping on Cassel on 1510 AM today. Don't get me wrong, I love Football Outsiders, but the problem is they often just look at the stats, not the games.

His premise was not an outrageous one - that Cassel is taking over for the best offense in history and therefore is at a distinct advantage. Sure, fine, whatever - but for anyone who has watched the last two games, its clear he's making strides and is at the very least, a good backup QB in the NFL capable of starting and winning games - with the likelihood that he will continue to improve.

Now the pertinent question, I think, is how will Cassel be viewed nationally, by other teams, by other scouts and other GMs. We've had the discussion about re-signing, tag and trading, etc. - it's also directly affected by how Cassel is viewed and regarded by the rest of the league. I'd love to either a) have Cassel back as a backup at a reasonable price or b) retain Cassel one way or the other and swap him for picks. But it all depends on what other teams and scouts think of him. Will teams make the same mistake the guys at Football Outsiders make, for instance?

 

[TheGodInAGreyHoodie]

I almost barfed on the way to work today as I heard some guy from Football Outsiders ripping on Cassel on 1510 AM today. Don't get me wrong, I love Football Outsiders, but the problem is they often just look at the stats, not the games.

His premise was not an outrageous one - that Cassel is taking over for the best offense in history and therefore is at a distinct advantage. Sure, fine, whatever - but for anyone who has watched the last two games, its clear he's making strides and is at the very least, a good backup QB in the NFL capable of starting and winning games - with the likelihood that he will continue to improve.

Now the pertinent question, I think, is how will Cassel be viewed nationally, by other teams, by other scouts and other GMs. We've had the discussion about re-signing, tag and trading, etc. - it's also directly affected by how Cassel is viewed and regarded by the rest of the league.

I hope the nation underestimates Cassel. Both in terms of preparation for games and the offers they make for him in FA.

But keep in mind even the worst of teams such as the Lions and Bengals have better scouts and talent judges then the very best analysts at ESPN and on talk radio.

 

[JSn]

Teams looking for QB's are watching games, not just reading stat sheets.

We don't have a real statement game until the Bills game. If we lose here, Matt will get slagged, but if we win, the party line will be "the Colts reaqlly aren't a good team this year."

When we beat the Bills, people will not be able to deny we have beaten a quality opponent.

If Matt is able to maintain his cool under the pressure of November's games, wins are very likely.

Unless we make it deep into the play-off's, Matt won't likely get much respect from outside the minds of the NFL (coaches/players/scouts/Pats fans).

Sadly, if we do make a real run, we'll have to listen to "Brady is a system QB" forever.

 

[Watson's IQ]

Now the pertinent question, I think, is how will Cassel be viewed nationally, by other teams, by other scouts and other GMs.

I think it's safe to say that opposing teams look at the games, and not the stats. If they're doing otherwise, they probably shouldn't be employed.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

They won't compare him to Brady 2007 but rather to what they have and what else is available...

He won't be back here in 2009 because he will either be too good or not good enough to be a backup.

If he finishes this season with Brady circa 2001 numbers and gets into the playoffs, he will have a market. If he gets us beyond the first round of the playoffs or if his personal numbers/performance down the stretch bely our not advancing he will be a pretty hot commodity compared to what else is available in essentially the retread jag and aging veteran market.

Kyle Orton had mediocre stats in Chicago last season and they landed him a 2 year extension that will pay him between $3-4.5M (the latter likely as he won the starters job vs. Grossman who signed essentially the same deal for 2008). We could not get Cassel to sign that deal because we can't offer him a shot to compete for the starters job going forward against Rex Grossman...

The Pats could try to extend Cassel for 3 years on a borderline starters deal structured to guarantee him something in excess of $14M over the term with language that would allow for and for practical reason implicitly call for a trade by 2010 if he isn't starting here. Tough nut to achieve and risky if he folded down the stretch. Or we could wait and see what unfolds and tag him if his stock is high come February... And if it is we risk nothing by tagging him because his market will be in the 5 year $40M with $20M+ over the first three and double digit millions guaranteed range to be someone elses starter with a shot at becoming their franchise QB - so he would not be drooling to sign that tag to stay here as Brady's backup... He and his agent know it's the what have you done lately league.

As for the risk involved in projecting Brady's rehab for 2009, the Pats either covered that when they drafted O'Connell (whom they would probably back up with a $1M vet unless Gutierrez has redeemed himself at #3 over the course of this season) or they wasted a 3rd rounder...

I think too that the national perspective on Cassel will not be shaped by stats geeks but rather by scouts, coaches, gm's and the bigger talking heads on the 4 letter networks.

 

[PatsWickedPissah]

Now the pertinent question, I think, is how will Cassel be viewed nationally, by other teams, by other scouts and other GMs. We've had the discussion about re-signing, tag and trading, etc. - it's also directly affected by how Cassel is viewed and regarded by the rest of the league. I'd love to either a) have Cassel back as a backup at a reasonable price or b) retain Cassel one way or the other and swap him for picks. But it all depends on what other teams and scouts think of him. Will teams make the same mistake the guys at Football Outsiders make, for instance?

No, simply because there are MANY more games to be played providing real game hard evidence of Cassel's capabilities. The scout info is just beginning. Later game performance will also be counted more than his 1st few NFL games. It's in Cassel's and Josh's hands.

And as to the point of taking over 'the greatest offense' there's no Stallworth, no Maroney, and no Morris on the field. The writers need to think before they write.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

The writers need to think before they write.

Perish the thought.

 

[Leave No Doubt]

He won't be back here in 2009 because he will either be too good or not good enough to be a backup.

He'll be good enough to be a backup unless he folds down the stretch but I agree- if this season ends on a positive note he'll definitely be considered too good to be a backup, which is what makes his 09 Pats' status so hard to call right now.

 

[emoney_33]

I hope the nation underestimates Cassel. Both in terms of preparation for games and the offers they make for him in FA.

But keep in mind even the worst of teams such as the Lions and Bengals have better scouts and talent judges then the very best analysts at ESPN and on talk radio.

I don't hope the 2nd part at all. I think MC deserves a real shot at NFL stardom. He's worked his butt off silently for almost a decade. I hope some team throws a boatload of cash his way, even if it's too much.

 

[TheGodInAGreyHoodie]

I don't hope the 2nd part at all. I think MC deserves a real shot at NFL stardom. He's worked his butt off silently for almost a decade. I hope some team throws a boatload of cash his way, even if it's too much.

Note I said offers. If all other 31 teams underestimates his worth that means BB gets to keep him

 

[emoney_33]

Note I said offers. If all other 31 teams underestimates his worth that means BB gets to keep him

Thinking selfishly I agree . I do hope Matt gets all the money he deserves though (assuming he continues to develop positively).

 

[Jared]

Note I said offers. If all other 31 teams underestimates his worth that means BB gets to keep him

Not necessarily. Even mid-low range starting QB money is a lot to tie up for a backup. If this is the direction it's headed, what happens?

We franchise Cassel. 14 million in cap space vanishes.
We entertain trade offers. Teams don't offer us as much as we had hoped.
Either A: We trade Matt for less than we wanted, and are still out a backup QB.
Or B: Cassel signs tender, costing the team a ton of money.

 

[TruthSeeker]

Or we could wait and see what unfolds and tag him if his stock is high come February... And if it is we risk nothing by tagging him because his market will be in the 5 year $40M with $20M+ over the first three and double digit millions guaranteed range to be someone elses starter with a shot at becoming their franchise QB.

Actually, you risk quite a bit by tagging him because the market value of Cassel is just speculation. Perhaps someone does want to give him 20M guaranteed (he'd already be getting 14M guaranteed for 1 year by signing the offer sheet; you'd need to push that to closer to 20M to make it attractive enough for him to move on). Even if they do, how do you know that they also want to give up something significant in a trade? You don't.

The "risk nothing by tagging him" remark is just wrong. There is significant risk. Since the Patriots would already be getting a 3rd round compensation pick, you have to question whether the risk of being stuck for $14M in salary cap is worth the improvement from an end of 3rd round pick to whatever you might get in a franchised player trade - particularly when other teams know that you're pretty much forced to trade him once you franchise him. The downside risk is large; the upside is murky even assuming Matt plays well over the rest of the year.

 

[SuperStang83]

Is it possible that Cassel would or could sign a small deal with us so that we could get more for him in FA and we wouldn't be losing much?

 

[MoLewisrocks]

Actually, you risk quite a bit by tagging him because the market value of Cassel is just speculation. Perhaps someone does want to give him 20M guaranteed (he'd already be getting 14M guaranteed for 1 year by signing the offer sheet; you'd need to push that to closer to 20M to make it attractive enough for him to move on). Even if they do, how do you know that they also want to give up something significant in a trade? You don't.

The "risk nothing by tagging him" remark is just wrong. There is significant risk. Since the Patriots would already be getting a 3rd round compensation pick, you have to question whether the risk of being stuck for $14M in salary cap is worth the improvement from an end of 3rd round pick to whatever you might get in a franchised player trade - particularly when other teams know that you're pretty much forced to trade him once you franchise him. The downside risk is large; the upside is murky even assuming Matt plays well over the rest of the year.

It isn't if you accept the underlying concept that Belioli aren't stupid - it's their job to know values and market and they would not tag him (which doesn't happen until late February 2009) unless they are CONFIDENT that he has a market and he will net them something of value beyond a comp pick in 2010. BTW assuming a future 3rd round comp pick is presumptious since even getting a pick is predicated on any FA we sign not negating it as well a secret formula that reportedly quantifies how the player performs relative to the contract he signs.

We got a first for Deion Branch even as the other 31 watched him hold a gun to our heads. In this league somebody always desperately covets what they think you have... We could have flipped Asante in 2007 and likely gotten something a lot more valuable short as well as long term than his performance in the Superbowl (which this offense likely would have gotten us to regardless...). Now we may get an untradeable comp pick at the end of the 3rd round in 2009. Somebody elses second in 2007 and a conditional 2008 pick would have looked nice in the flying Elvis right about now...

 

[MoLewisrocks]

Not necessarily. Even mid-low range starting QB money is a lot to tie up for a backup. If this is the direction it's headed, what happens?

We franchise Cassel. 14 million in cap space vanishes.
We entertain trade offers. Teams don't offer us as much as we had hoped.
Either A: We trade Matt for less than we wanted, and are still out a backup QB.
Or B: Cassel signs tender, costing the team a ton of money.

If cap vanishes for a couple of weeks or a month, what is the downside? We are $24M under the projected cap for 2009. Even a splashy FA can be added to the roster for a single digit first year cap hit.

We are not out a backup player. We have the 3rd rounder they reportedly graded out as a 1st round talent to replace the 7th rounder who hadn't played since HS...who is currently getting a year of experience as the #2 which is half the experience Cassel had but double what that guy Brady had when he stepped in...

It only takes one team with interest to make a trade and two teams to create a bidding war. If they are reasonable there is no risk. If they were unreasonable it would indicate they are either foolish or willing to pay the price. We're not talking Carl Peterson and his unhappy all world TE who wants out of a rebuild here, this is Belichick and Pioli and they always have a plan A, B, C...

 

[MoLewisrocks]

Is it possible that Cassel would or could sign a small deal with us so that we could get more for him in FA and we wouldn't be losing much?

No..........

 

[Jared]

We are not out a backup player. We have the 3rd rounder they reportedly graded out as a 1st round talent to replace the 7th rounder who hadn't played since HS...who is currently getting a year of experience as the #2 which is half the experience Cassel had but double what that guy Brady had when he stepped in...

A second year played who has never played a meaningful NFL game is not the same as someone who has played a full season (assuming he stays healthy) with solid quality.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

It isn't if you accept the underlying concept that Belioli aren't stupid - it's their job to know values and market and they would not tag him (which doesn't happen until late February 2009) unless they are CONFIDENT that he has a market and he will net them something of value beyond a comp pick in 2010. BTW assuming a future 3rd round comp pick is presumptious since even getting a pick is predicated on any FA we sign not negating it as well a secret formula that reportedly quantifies how the player performs relative to the contract he signs.

It's mostly average annual value of the contract. Doing really well can help, but not much (in other words, even if Asante, God forbid, had been on IR the entire 2008 season, the Pats still would have landed a comp third for him).

More importantly, don't forget the poison pill currently attached to the 2010 season--it will take six seasons to become an unrestricted free agent. That means that if Cassel takes the franchise tag, he's still a restricted free agent in 2010.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

It's mostly average annual value of the contract. Doing really well can help, but not much (in other words, even if Asante, God forbid, had been on IR the entire 2008 season, the Pats still would have landed a comp third for him).

More importantly, don't forget the poison pill currently attached to the 2010 season--it will take six seasons to become an unrestricted free agent. That means that if Cassel takes the franchise tag, he's still a restricted free agent in 2010.

But again, that's just another reason why he wouldn't be a risk to sign it...