Early look at Patriots comp picks for '09

[DocE]

I did some research this morning on where the Patriots compensation picks should fall in the '09 draft.

Source for compensation formula is here:

Projecting the 2008 Compensatory NFL Draft Picks « AdamJT13

AdamJT has been projecting these picks forever, so I trust his info far more than a random Internet poster and/or blogger.

The Patriots lost 3 players who will qualify as compensatory free agents in Samuel, Stallworth, and Gay. Eugene Wilson would have qualified as well, but he didn't make the Tampa Bay squad.

The question is did the Patriots sign any compensatory free agents? Lewis Sanders is not a compensatory free agent because the Falcons released him in February. Sam Aiken is the one potential compensatory free agent signed by the Patriots and he is right on the boarder of qualifying. His contract size (about 785K/yr for 2 years) is right on the boarder for qualifying as a 7th round type and the fact that he rarely plays anything but special teams (offensive and defensive snaps are taken in to account in the formula) cloud his situation even further.

Bottom line: The Patriots receive 2 comp picks if Aiken is deemed to be a compensatory free agent and they receive 3 comp pick if Aiken is not deemed a compensatory free agent.

Asante Samuel will net the Patriots a 3rd round comp pick- His contract numbers fall well above the minimum per year (about 6 million where Samuel's contract avg's 9 mil) to qualify as a 3rd round pick for the Patriots.

Donte Stallworth's contract averages about 5 million a year, but it's backloaded so projecting where his comp pick status lies is more difficult. The Patriots should get a 4th or 5th round comp pick for Stallworth, but I don't know which.

Randall Gay's contract averages about 3 million a year which puts his contract on the boarder between the 5th and 6th round comp picks.

So the Patriots should end up with 3rd and 5th round compensatory picks at the very worst. At the very best they will end up with 3rd, 4th, and 5th round picks.

 

[fester]

So the Patriots should end up with 3rd and 5th round compensatory picks at the very worst. At the very best they will end up with 3rd, 4th, and 5th round picks.

Using your projections then the Pats Draft haul looks like the following ---
1st, 2nd (SD), 2nd, 3rd 3rd (Comp), 4th, 5th, 5th (Comp), 6th, 7th

OR

1st, 2nd (SD), 2nd, 3rd, 3rd (Comp), 4th, 4th (Comp) 5th, 5th (Comp), 6th, 7th

Plenty of space to play... I bet at least one of the 2nd or 3rd rounders gets traded for future picks.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

Excellent analysis. A couple of things, though:

The Patriots lost 3 players who will qualify as compensatory free agents in Samuel, Stallworth, and Gay. Eugene Wilson would have qualified as well, but he didn't make the Tampa Bay squad.

Bottom line: The Patriots receive 2 comp picks if Aiken is deemed to be a compensatory free agent and they receive 3 comp pick if Aiken is not deemed a compensatory free agent.

Asante Samuel will net the Patriots a 3rd round comp pick- His contract numbers fall well above the minimum per year (about 6 million where Samuel's contract avg's 9 mil) to qualify as a 3rd round pick for the Patriots.

Donte Stallworth's contract averages about 5 million a year, but it's backloaded so projecting where his comp pick status lies is more difficult. The Patriots should get a 4th or 5th round comp pick for Stallworth, but I don't know which.

Randall Gay's contract averages about 3 million a year which puts his contract on the boarder between the 5th and 6th round comp picks.

So the Patriots should end up with 3rd and 5th round compensatory picks at the very worst. At the very best they will end up with 3rd, 4th, and 5th round picks.

(1) The dollar figure used is average annual value, regardless of backloading, etc., assuming the contract goes to completion. So the exact details of how Stallworth gets his $X million over Y years are irrelevant.

(2) The cutoffs tend to drift upward a few percent each year, so I'm not sure if Stallworth and Gay will end up above or below the line, so to speak (playing time is also a factor, but Stallworth has missed a significant amount so far).

So the best-case scenario for Samuel-Stallworth-Gay is 3-4-5; the worst-case is 3-5-nothing. Intermediate cases would be 3-4-6, 3-5-5, or 3-5-6. [To be precise, Samuel should be either #97 or #98; Stallworth should be either one of the last fourth-rounders or one of the first fifth-rounders; ditto for Gay with respect to the fifth/sixth rounds.]

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

Anyway you slice it the Pats are stocked up for bear hunting in the 2009 draft. Thanks for the analysis!

 

[BradyManny]

Wow, the idea of having 2 picks in rounds 2, 3, 4 & 5 makes me want to get up and do cart wheels around the office. But alas, it's a small office, so I'd probably hurt myself.

Really, this gives us the flexibility to move around, and specifically, perhaps move up or move into future years. I need to spend some time to see how many jobs/spots will be available on this team next year...it will be interesting to see what their philosophy is.

They'll have to find the right balance between stockpiling up on youth and retaining some of those key ST guys that would otherwise be bubble guys on the roster.

 

[Ochmed Jones]

Wow, the idea of having 2 picks in rounds 2, 3, 4 & 5 makes me want to get up and do cart wheels around the office. But alas, it's a small office, so I'd probably hurt myself.

It would not be unrealistic to think that 6 or 7 rookies could make our roster next season, maybe more or maybe less depending on how many FA's we lose or sign.

But regardless, if we get 3 comp picks, I would like to see BB turn some of our picks into 2010 day one draft chips in order to keep the the cupboard stocked in the future.

 

[VJCPatriot]

Please keep in mind that comp picks can't be traded. Having comp picks does not give you 'more' ammo for the draft. But because the picks are redundant, it lets you use your normal picks as trade ammo if need be without having nothing left to pick in that round.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

Please keep in mind that comp picks can't be traded. Having comp picks does not give you 'more' ammo for the draft. But because the picks are redundant, it lets you use your normal picks as trade ammo if need be without having nothing left to pick in that round.

Well, for not being live rounds they shoot pretty straight. Off the top of my head - Brady and Kaczur were comp picks.

 

[FreeTedWilliams]

Please keep in mind that comp picks can't be traded. Having comp picks does not give you 'more' ammo for the draft. But because the picks are redundant, it lets you use your normal picks as trade ammo if need be without having nothing left to pick in that round.

What I would love to see is the Pats use the #1 and the 2 #2s and the 3rd round comp pick for Assante, and then make some of those one up trades The ones like last year, when we traded a 3rd for a 2nd next year. That seems to be the norm, in the last draft the Pats traded a 3rd for a 5th, and a #2 in this year's draft.

Two other similar trades were:
Philadelphia traded its sixth-round (No. 191) pick to Cleveland for the Browns’ 2009 fifth-round pick.

Green Bay traded its seventh-round (No. 237) to New Orleans for the Saints’ 2009 sixth-round pick.

Both great trades. Philly & Green bay will easily move up at least 40 draft slots with these trades (I think the Philly/Cleveland pick stands at #148 today). And Green Bay will be getting a 3rd from the Jests (a 2nd if they make the playoffs) plus they will move up from #237 to @ # 190.

What makes these trades great is that a 6th or 7th rounder was going to have a hard time make either one of those clubs, so why not trade the pick away and wait a year, and move it up one round. I would love to see the Pats do this with any/all of their 3rd-7th round picks.

 

[BradyManny]

What makes these trades great is that a 6th or 7th rounder was going to have a hard time make either one of those clubs, so why not trade the pick away and wait a year, and move it up one round. I would love to see the Pats do this with any/all of their 3rd-7th round picks.

Co-sign, I'd like to see them do some of this too. They already have a lot of strong players on the bubble of the roster, a bunch of great ST players, and developmental players on the squad or PS - so roster space will be at a premium going into next season.

 

[cstjohn17]

Co-sign, I'd like to see them do some of this too. They already have a lot of strong players on the bubble of the roster, a bunch of great ST players, and developmental players on the squad or PS - so roster space will be at a premium going into next season.

Sometimes it makes sense but it is not like the Pats are 10 deep at every position. After this season they have 38 players signed, which leaves 15 open roster spots plus camp fodder. If a 7th rounder comes in and helps boost the overall competition during training camp then they have done their job, if they makes the practice squad then that is even better. Waiting a year and hoping they strike it big with a 6th rounder (re: Tom Brady) has a pretty low success rate.

I would rather they actively move up in the first couple of rounds to land a player they really like, Even if it means going home with 4 draft picks instead of 7. The Jets have been good at this, moving up to get Revis and then Keller last year. The Chargers have done it with Weddle and others.

The team I respect the most in drafting is the Steelers, they load up on good young LBs because it is the key to their defense.

 

[jeffbiologist]

Didnt the FO sign Stallworth to a multi year contract backloaded? He was cut wasnt he? I didnt think we got comp picks for cut players, but I might be wrong again....

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

Didnt the FO sign Stallworth to a multi year contract backloaded? He was cut wasnt he? I didnt think we got comp picks for cut players, but I might be wrong again....

Not "cut," they just didn't pick up his option, which allowed him to enter Free Agency.

 

[jeffbiologist]

Not "cut," they just didn't pick up his option, which allowed him to enter Free Agency.

Thanks, I didnt know all the ramifications of options as some have been more than happy to ridicule. Thanks for not jumping on,lol.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

Thanks for not jumping on,lol.

No problem, I try to save my cheap shots for when your "willfully ignorant" or just really irritating.

 

[DaBruinz]

It would not be unrealistic to think that 6 or 7 rookies could make our roster next season, maybe more or maybe less depending on how many FA's we lose or sign.

But regardless, if we get 3 comp picks, I would like to see BB turn some of our picks into 2010 day one draft chips in order to keep the the cupboard stocked in the future.

Considering that Day 1 is only the 1st and 2nd rounds now, unless he trades the the Pats or SDs 2nd round pick or the Pats 3rd round pick, its unlikely that the Pats would get a Day 1 pick next year.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

Considering that Day 1 is only the 1st and 2nd rounds now, unless he trades the the Pats or SDs 2nd round pick or the Pats 3rd round pick, its unlikely that the Pats would get a Day 1 pick next year.

I expect that he will, actually, especially if he can finagle a high pick (1 or 2) for Cassel.

 

[fester]

Regarding Cassel --- what is the minimum you think the Patriots would accept in a franchise and trade situation? The max is two first round picks, but what is the minimum? And then how would that play for the Pat's '09 draft as a draft that was 2 #1s, 2 #2s and 2#3's (including a comp for Samuals) as well as a banked 2010 #1 for Cassel would potentially allow the Pats to rejigger their salary cap structure and talent pool for the next five years.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

Regarding Cassel --- what is the minimum you think the Patriots would accept in a franchise and trade situation? The max is two first round picks, but what is the minimum? And then how would that play for the Pat's '09 draft as a draft that was 2 #1s, 2 #2s and 2#3's (including a comp for Samuals) as well as a banked 2010 #1 for Cassel would potentially allow the Pats to rejigger their salary cap structure and talent pool for the next five years.

AFAIK, that's what's required by rule if an offer sheet is not matched, not the maximum allowed. (After all, the Pats threw in an extra 7 for Welker beyond the 2 that would have been required if they had made an offer under the RFA tender rules.)

I doubt it'd be 2 1s. Maybe a 1 and a 3, or a 1 and a 2, giving up their 3 as "change."

 

[mgteich]

Stallworth doesn't count. The team didn't exercixe his option. I expect a 3rd and a 6th. I make no guesses at what we might get for Cassel. In any case, we will have lots of draft choices available.