6 point underdogs?

[VJCPatriot]

Can someone explain to me how the Pats are 3-1 compared to the Chargers 2-3, both lost to Miami and yet the Pats are 6 point underdogs? Does the fact that the game is in SD make that much of a difference or do the "experts" (haha) actually believe that the chargers are that much better?

I think they just don't buy into Cassel yet. Talentwise the Chargers are stacked but they are playing terribly so I think we will beat them, even without Brady.

The Chargers may be the most unlucky but best 2-3 team ever but luck has not been on their side

Sheesh, why don't you go out and buy your Chargers jersey already!

 

[patriotsdynasty12189]

Matt Cassel...seriously.

 

[JSn]

I expect to see evans getting some more carries than usual in this game as well - The Patriots will most likely try and slow this game down using thier rotation of backs and that is the best way to beat the CHargers and keep Cassel from having to be the guy to win the game - I don't want to see Cassel in that position right now against a solid team like SD - The defense,special teams and rushing attack are keys to beating SD in thier house.

I understand what you're saying, and it does need to be a team win, but I think Cassel is going to have to have a 2-3 passing TD game. I'm ok with him being thrown into the fire this week, to a degree. It's not like we have a stretch of painfully easy games this year, especially in our division. He needs to be ready for a lot of good teams. The chargers chasing him down is a great way to get him ready for that.

It might be that we can win ball control again, but I'm not positive on that one...

 

[NovaScotiaPatsFan]

Well the home team usually gets 3 just for bein the home team, so really it's only 3 point dogs.

 

[Leave No Doubt]

Well the home team usually gets 3 just for bein the home team, so really it's only 3 point dogs.

Exactly,and the remaining 3 points after factoring in HFA really isn't that shocking. Thinking in terms of how the Pats are viewed by the betting public I'm sure many are still a bit wary of Cassel's consistency plus there's probably a question mark regarding them,in their present status, being able to win again out there this week. :blahblah:

 

[bostonia3333]

Game managers tend to be underdogs. I wouldn't be surprised if Brady won the MVP again by NOT playing.

 

[GostkowSKI]

New England would have been a 1 point favorite at Gillette IMO

I can't remember the last pick em game in Foxboro or at least while Gillette is standing - Maybe back in 2001 with the Rams visiting was the last?

Were the Pats a pick em' or a dog in 2005 and/or 2006 at home vs. the Colts?

 

[PATRIOT64]

Were the Pats a pick em' or a dog in 2005 and/or 2006 at home vs. the Colts?

IIRC NE was 2 to 2 1/2 point favorites in both those games

I think the Brady-led NE team has not been an underdog at Gillette since the 2002 season - I may be wrong but I don't think so

 

[NYCPatsFan]

Given the homefield advantage and the fact that the Chargers were robbed off a victory at Denver (and nearly got one against the Panthers, both on the road btw), I am a bit surprised that the spread is not more. But I guess they factored in Mr. Tomilson's injury and the absence of their WR.

I don't care to be honest.

I would rather have the whole world doubting us and keeping us the underdogs for the entire season.

GO PATS!!

 

[420jim]

So far this season team "A" looked good one week and the next they looked like a dog. Team "B" looked bad one week and champs the next. The only thing "WE" know is that the Giants are good and the Raiders are the Raiders for a reason (Al, I took too many trips on the Ronald Reagan freeway, Davis)

The line means little, Las Vegas Books have no bettor (pun intended) handle on teams than we do. Which brings up a different train of thought...

The NFL has a hair across its @ss about Las Vegas, I live there and the rules the NFL imposes are nuts. And yet, there is a spread line posted in the papers and on its own sports shows. A line that only comes from Las Vegas, but that is a topic for another thread.

 

[420jim]

IIRC NE was 2 to 2 1/2 point favorites in both those games

I think the Brady-led NE team has not been an underdog at Gillette since the 2002 season - I may be wrong but I don't think so

Wasn't the Colts a 3 point favorite @ Gillette for the 2003 Divisional playoffs?

I'm 99% sure the Pats were a home 'dog vs Colts in the playoffs during one SB run.

 

[Patjew]

I can't remember the last pick em game in Foxboro or at least while Gillette is standing - Maybe back in 2001 with the Rams visiting was the last?

2004 AFC div playoff game vs Indy.

 

[Patsfanin Philly]

Here betters are following conventional wisdom and positing that 1) the Chargers need the win 2) it's the Patriots' second straight road game and 3) no Tom Brady.

I think #2 is less of an issue in this case since the Pats spent this week on the west coast and it was the Chargers who had to fly cross country home from Miami on Sunday....

 

[JAYHAWKS34]

Can someone explain to me how the Pats are 3-1 compared to the Chargers 2-3, both lost to Miami and yet the Pats are 6 point underdogs? Does the fact that the game is in SD make that much of a difference or do the "experts" (haha) actually believe that the chargers are that much better?

The game is in San Diego and we lost to Miami, nuff said

 

[denverpatsfan]

Line should be at least 10. This is a must win/revenge game for the Chargers.

 

[wiggins!]

remember to why lines are made, not who vegas thinks is going to win but how to create "equal betting." If vegas made the san diego a 3-point favorite (3 or 4) the world would be san diego and if san diego covered, vegas would lose. Same true for the pats being a double-digit "dog" as the previous poster said. If ne were +10, the betting public would be heavily in favor of the Pats. Right now, those across the country who wager have to think!

Oh, and vegas doesn't give 2 $%#&% what "experts" or "analysts" think either!

 

[TruthSeeker]

remember to why lines are made, not who vegas thinks is going to win but how to create "equal betting." If vegas made the san diego a 3-point favorite (3 or 4) the world would be san diego and if san diego covered, vegas would lose. Same true for the pats being a double-digit "dog" as the previous poster said. If ne were +10, the betting public would be heavily in favor of the Pats. Right now, those across the country who wager have to think!

Oh, and vegas doesn't give 2 $%#&% what "experts" or "analysts" think either!

That being said, the line is set this way because the betting public believes that it is correct i.e. about half favor the Patriots with this line and the other half favor the Chargers. The bookies who set the line guess what the betting public is going to do and the betting public makes its choices based on what it believes is reality. This has proven to be very accurate over the long term (any individual game can be way off for lots of reasons).

To not include this as part of the explanation gives the misguided impression that the lines are arbitrary - when they are exactly the opposite. They truly reflect the better public's opinion of reality. Now, whether this opinion is right or wrong will be seen over time.

 

[wiggins!]

That being said, the line is set this way because the betting public believes that it is correct i.e. about half favor the Patriots with this line and the other half favor the Chargers. The bookies who set the line guess what the betting public is going to do and the betting public makes its choices based on what it believes is reality. This has proven to be very accurate over the long term (any individual game can be way off for lots of reasons).

To not include this as part of the explanation gives the misguided impression that the lines are arbitrary - when they are exactly the opposite. They truly reflect the better public's opinion of reality. Now, whether this opinion is right or wrong will be seen over time.

Nope. That's a good point that you added. Guess what the public is going to do and set a line that creates equal betting. You're right. It's not arbitrary. I should have added that.

 

[upstater1]

Yes and yes. Miami throttled the Pats, and held on to beat SD by 7 iirc.

This isn't college football.

There is no transitive theory of victory in the NFL.

A loss by 21 or a loss by 3 is still a loss.

 

[godef]

Can someone explain to me how the Pats are 3-1 compared to the Chargers 2-3, both lost to Miami and yet the Pats are 6 point underdogs? Does the fact that the game is in SD make that much of a difference or do the "experts" (haha) actually believe that the chargers are that much better?

Experts believing the Chargers are much better or not has nothing to do with this. They are not picking who they think will win and by how much, they are picking how they think the public believes will win and by how much.

New York teams often get skewed odds because a lot of people live in New York and tend to disproportionally bet in their favor.

SO please, don't take it so personal, at least not with the "experts".