Revisiting an old idea...

[patfanken]

.... in the up and down world that is Matt Cassel's life as a New England Patriot.

After the Jet game there was a lot of talk about what to do with Matt's future in NE, and/or how to maximize his trade value in the future. Here are the facts.

1. He has NO future trade value as of now because he will be a FA at the end of the season.
if he has a future with the Pats there will have to be a new contract signed BEFORE the end of this season.

2. Assuming he continues to make progress over the season and the Pats make it into the playoffs, there WILL BE a market for him this off season.

3. IF he WERE under contract with the Pats at the end of the season, he would be most likely worth some kind of 3rd round pick, or some kind of sliding scale deal that would change the round based on how much he plays for his new team. Very much like the deal the Jets have with the Pack on Farve. Something that moves from a 4th to a 2nd based on performance.

4. What the Pats have to do is to get him under contract. Right now he's earning about a half million dollars. So a deal that would put 4-6 Million in his pocket immediately would look pretty good to him. In reality it pays him as a true starter on a contending team, and wouldn't really hurt him in his quest to get his own team next year. In essence the Pats are willing to give him financial security TODAY in exchange for the ability to get some kind of draft pick in the off season. It really wouldn't effect his ability to get a new contract. Since any team that would trade for him would probably give him a new longer term contract.

5. To get this done, I was thinking of a 2 year $8MM deal with a $6MM signing bonus. That puts some good money in his pocket in time for Christmas, at the same time gives the Pats the right to trade him instead of just watch him walk out the door. Its a much cheaper option that making him a franchise or transitional player. At worst the Pats would have a much better and more experienced back up for 2009 than the one they had in 2008.

 

[satz]

Re: Revisiting an old idea....

You are going to pay 4-6$ million for a 3rd round pick with a slide rule?
cap management right their.

 

[ScottieC]

Re: Revisiting an old idea....

You are going to pay 4-6$ million for a 3rd round pick with a slide rule?
cap management right their.

No way. Matt holds all the cards here and his value next year is tied directly to what he does over the rest of the season.

If he wants to be a very rich man, he needs play well and get into the playoffs.

 

[Kontradiction]

Re: Revisiting an old idea....

You are going to pay 4-6$ million for a 3rd round pick with a slide rule?
cap management right their.

Yeah, only he's not a third round pick.

 

[BelichickFan]

Re: Revisiting an old idea....

1. He has NO future trade value as of now because he will be a FA at the end of the season.
if he has a future with the Pats there will have to be a new contract signed BEFORE the end of this season.

5. To get this done, I was thinking of a 2 year $8MM deal with a $6MM signing bonus. That puts some good money in his pocket in time for Christmas, at the same time gives the Pats the right to trade him instead of just watch him walk out the door. Its a much cheaper option that making him a franchise or transitional player. At worst the Pats would have a much better and more experienced back up for 2009 than the one they had in 2008.

If you assume he continue as is, no better, no worse :

I don't think he'd sign a 2 year/$8M deal. He could get more than that on the open market. Capable, young QB with upside would do better. I would like to think we'd Franchise him and trade him. Of course he'd have to do well enough to make him tradable but that's part of the premise.

There's three possibility in my mind :

- He looks bad the rest of the way. In which case we just let him go obviously.

- He looks below average but playable the rest of the way. That's tricky to Franchise him as he could sign the offer which is guaranteed and we may find no takers and be stuck with a one year albatross contract.

- He looks average or better. Now I Franchise him, not expecting a bounty but figuring a team would give up between a #2 and #4 pick either signing him long term or paying him the Franchise amount for a year then deciding a year from now what to do.

The middle option is the only tricky one. As long as he looks decent enough that we were confident a team would trade something for him (they'd be paying big bucks for at either one year or long term) and get us out of the contract that's how I'd go.

That said, the Patriots have been overly conservative in tagging and trading players for my liking so I expect him to walk with no strings attached unless he looks REALLY good.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

Re: Revisiting an old idea....

5. To get this done, I was thinking of a 2 year $8MM deal with a $6MM signing bonus. That puts some good money in his pocket in time for Christmas, at the same time gives the Pats the right to trade him instead of just watch him walk out the door. Its a much cheaper option that making him a franchise or transitional player. At worst the Pats would have a much better and more experienced back up for 2009 than the one they had in 2008.

As a not-so-minor point, slapping the transitional tag on Cassel would be beyond pointless. All the transitional tag does is guarantee you right of first refusal; no compensation at all is required.

 

[PatsWickedPissah]

Re: Revisiting an old idea....

Unless he's outstanding which I do not expect, Franchising him is risky. Plus we'd need the cap space even temporarily.

A $6M bonus on a 2 year $8M contract hits us $4M this year minus his already half million. Limits our ability to re-up key players early.

That same contract puts $3M dead cap money into 2009.

This is not worth trying to get a middling draft pick. Let's root for Matt and be happy he's here now when we need him.

 

[captadamnj]

Re: Revisiting an old idea....

I don't dislike Cassel. I think he's doing ok. But let me also say that no way a player that hasn't qb'd meaningful games in 8 years has any success on any team other than the Patriots. This is the Patriots way, and the fact that it seems to extend all the way to the qb position is truly remarkable.

We talk about Cassel leading this team to the playoffs, but I think a better description is the Patriots getting to the playoffs with Cassel. If this team goes deep into the Post-Season, I will be the first to stand up and applaud Cassel's effort, but I would probably view his efforts along the lines of Johnson with the Bucs in '03 and Dilfer with the Ravens in '01.

That being said, assuming he plays in the average to better than average category the rest of the way (still an assumption, but I like his chances), I would see the Pats offering him an above average 2nd string qb salary 2 year contract. They need insurance for Brady coming back from the surgery and would give O'Connell time to develop. And if I was in his shoes, looking around the league at the "success" (i.e. - lack thereof) of other Pats that went to other teams, I would probably take that deal. If he doesn't wind up sticking with the Pats after that, he would still be young enough to come into his prime with another team.

 

[Urgent]

Re: Revisiting an old idea....

There's three possibility in my mind :

- He looks bad the rest of the way. In which case we just let him go obviously.

- He looks below average but playable the rest of the way. That's tricky to Franchise him as he could sign the offer which is guaranteed and we may find no takers and be stuck with a one year albatross contract.

- He looks average or better. Now I Franchise him, not expecting a bounty but figuring a team would give up between a #2 and #4 pick either signing him long term or paying him the Franchise amount for a year then deciding a year from now what to do.

The middle option is the only tricky one. As long as he looks decent enough that we were confident a team would trade something for him (they'd be paying big bucks for at either one year or long term) and get us out of the contract that's how I'd go.

That said, the Patriots have been overly conservative in tagging and trading players for my liking so I expect him to walk with no strings attached unless he looks REALLY good.

I suggested exactly the same three-pronged outlook after his first game, before a down game and an up game, and was ridiculed. But I still believe that's a decent framework.

I also agree that Matt probably would not agree to an extension right now, especially a two-year deal.

Cleo Lemon got a three-year, $10mm contract, without the benefit of a whole year starting. Cleo Lemon strives to be mediocre. Cassel will definitely be in line for a $10mm deal if he plays well behind the Patriots offense.

If Cassel signs a two-year deal with the Patriots right now, in all likelihood, he would be a back-up once again with the Patriots. His value at the end of that deal would be depreciated by his lack of playing time and age. The future is now for Cassel.

If Cassel signs a deal with the Patriots, and they opt to trade him, they determine where he goes. If Cassel hits free agency, he can call the shots. He can speak with Minnesota, St Louis, Miami, Tennessee, and take a deal that offers him the greatest chance to play.

If the Patriots were to sign Cassel to such a deal, I would assume they would want to structure it with higher salaries and lower bonus. $6mm bonus plus two $1mm salaries doesn't help them.

Looking at this from another team's perspective, would you rather have Matt Cassel at, say, $3mm a season, or Kevin O'Connell at $0.5mm a season with that third round pick? Depends on your situation, of course, but it's not a slam dunk.

Also, the value of a third round pick is well less than $6mm, the salary cap charge if he was traded. When you consider the probability of success and the free agent replacement cost, the value of a third-round pick is around $500K or so to the cap.

For a number of reasons, I think it is in Matt Cassel's best interests to hit free agency.

However, it's fun to debate.

 

[JoePats]

Re: Revisiting an old idea....

If you assume he continue as is, no better, no worse :

I don't think he'd sign a 2 year/$8M deal. He could get more than that on the open market. Capable, young QB with upside would do better. I would like to think we'd Franchise him and trade him. Of course he'd have to do well enough to make him tradable but that's part of the premise.

There's three possibility in my mind :

- He looks bad the rest of the way. In which case we just let him go obviously.

- He looks below average but playable the rest of the way. That's tricky to Franchise him as he could sign the offer which is guaranteed and we may find no takers and be stuck with a one year albatross contract.

- He looks average or better. Now I Franchise him, not expecting a bounty but figuring a team would give up between a #2 and #4 pick either signing him long term or paying him the Franchise amount for a year then deciding a year from now what to do.

The middle option is the only tricky one. As long as he looks decent enough that we were confident a team would trade something for him (they'd be paying big bucks for at either one year or long term) and get us out of the contract that's how I'd go.

That said, the Patriots have been overly conservative in tagging and trading players for my liking so I expect him to walk with no strings attached unless he looks REALLY good.

There's no way a team will pay him $12 million for one year and give up a draft pick to that right.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

Re: Revisiting an old idea....

If Cassel signs a deal with the Patriots, and they opt to trade him, they determine where he goes. If Cassel hits free agency, he can call the shots. He can speak with Minnesota, St Louis, Miami, Tennessee, and take a deal that offers him the greatest chance to play.

FWIW, I don't think the Pats would make any attempt to screw Cassel over. My guess is they'd do what the JEST did with Vilma--tell him, "you can talk with anybody except X, Y, and the #%@%@)#%&@#%&@#%ing JEST."

 

[MoLewisrocks]

Re: Revisiting an old idea....

.... in the up and down world that is Matt Cassel's life as a New England Patriot.

After the Jet game there was a lot of talk about what to do with Matt's future in NE, and/or how to maximize his trade value in the future. Here are the facts.

1. He has NO future trade value as of now because he will be a FA at the end of the season.
if he has a future with the Pats there will have to be a new contract signed BEFORE the end of this season.

2. Assuming he continues to make progress over the season and the Pats make it into the playoffs, there WILL BE a market for him this off season.

3. IF he WERE under contract with the Pats at the end of the season, he would be most likely worth some kind of 3rd round pick, or some kind of sliding scale deal that would change the round based on how much he plays for his new team. Very much like the deal the Jets have with the Pack on Farve. Something that moves from a 4th to a 2nd based on performance.

4. What the Pats have to do is to get him under contract. Right now he's earning about a half million dollars. So a deal that would put 4-6 Million in his pocket immediately would look pretty good to him. In reality it pays him as a true starter on a contending team, and wouldn't really hurt him in his quest to get his own team next year. In essence the Pats are willing to give him financial security TODAY in exchange for the ability to get some kind of draft pick in the off season. It really wouldn't effect his ability to get a new contract. Since any team that would trade for him would probably give him a new longer term contract.

5. To get this done, I was thinking of a 2 year $8MM deal with a $6MM signing bonus. That puts some good money in his pocket in time for Christmas, at the same time gives the Pats the right to trade him instead of just watch him walk out the door. Its a much cheaper option that making him a franchise or transitional player. At worst the Pats would have a much better and more experienced back up for 2009 than the one they had in 2008.

If he were under contract on a two year extension with $4M remaining in dead cap you'd have to get more than a sliding scale 2010 draft pick for him to absorb the $2M per dead cap hits in 2009 and 2010... And there is no incentive for him to sign a deal that might get him traded to a starting job where he's effectively signed for $1M per in unguaranteed salary only negating any new team's incentive in signing him to an extension of their own...

So again, if you want him to extend it's going to require the team to commit to someone (partly them and partly a trading partner) paying him roughly franchise tag (double digit)guaranteed money over the next 2 seasons. In the long run it's likely a better risk/reward gamble to take the approach that you will either tag and trade him if he emerges as a potential franchise starter or absent a strong market thank him for his service and let him walk. While it would be nice to have options in the event Brady hits any bumps in the road to full recovery, O'Connell remains and adding a veteran as insurance at the start of camp is a viable 2009 option.

 

[BelichickFan]

Re: Revisiting an old idea....

There's no way a team will pay him $12 million for one year and give up a draft pick to that right.

Let's see how he looks at the end of the year. If he's in the top half of NFL in QB rating (as an easy, generic way to judge him) and the team is 9-7 or better I have little doubt a team would trade for him. FA QB are costly and draft choices are iffy (not to mention expensive). For a team needing a QB I could easily see them making a trade like that and doing a long term deal. Again, only if Cassel looks at least average and shows upside.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

Re: Revisiting an old idea....

Unless he's outstanding which I do not expect, Franchising him is risky. Plus we'd need the cap space even temporarily.

A $6M bonus on a 2 year $8M contract hits us $4M this year minus his already half million. Limits our ability to re-up key players early.

That same contract puts $3M dead cap money into 2009.

This is not worth trying to get a middling draft pick. Let's root for Matt and be happy he's here now when we need him.

It hits us $2.5M this year and leaves a dead cap of $4M to be spread over 2009 and 2010 actually...

They won't tag him UNLESS they know there is a market and they are COMMITTED to getting a pre draft deal done. 2009 is projected to be a very shallow draft for QB's and lots of teams are in dire need of one... Ditto they won't extend him unless they can fashion a deal that works reasonably well for both sides (i.e. guarantees him some starters money while allowing for a trade so someone else can foot the bulk of that bill...).

 

[MoLewisrocks]

Re: Revisiting an old idea....

FWIW, I don't think the Pats would make any attempt to screw Cassel over. My guess is they'd do what the JEST did with Vilma--tell him, "you can talk with anybody except X, Y, and the #%@%@)#%&@#%&@#%ing JEST."

I also think Matt is a pretty savvy kid who would be looking at the long term (career) as well as short term (bonus $$$) ramifications of where he landed...(system similarity or fit, coaching and franchise stability, roster talent, conference or division...)

 

[MoLewisrocks]

Re: Revisiting an old idea....

There's no way a team will pay him $12 million for one year and give up a draft pick to that right.

Nor would they have to. You don't grasp that tagged players who are traded get a new long term deal as part of the process...or they wouldn't get traded...

 

[xmarkd400x]

Re: Revisiting an old idea....

Just hope the compensatory picks are good to us.

 

[TruthSeeker]

Re: Revisiting an old idea....

Somehow I don't think Cassel will be receiving a whole lot of consideration with O'Connell starting during the second half of the season.

 

[Urgent]

Re: Revisiting an old idea....

FWIW, I don't think the Pats would make any attempt to screw Cassel over. My guess is they'd do what the JEST did with Vilma--tell him, "you can talk with anybody except X, Y, and the #%@%@)#%&@#%&@#%ing JEST."

Agreed.

But, Matt's priorities might be:
1) Best chance to start
2) Longest deal
3) Largest bonus
4) Best team

While the Pats' priorities might be:
1) Highest draft choice compensation
2) Other division

There could be no overlap with Matt's priorities. Thus, he could better maximize his own value as a free agent.

 

[captadamnj]

Re: Revisiting an old idea....

Somehow I don't think Cassel will be receiving a whole lot of consideration with O'Connell starting during the second half of the season.

For who, your fantasy team?!