ALDS: Red Sox vs Angels [5 game series]

[Disco Volante]

All games will be aired on TBS.

Series Schedule

Wednesday (10/1)
@ Angels

Friday (10/3)
@ Angels

Sunday (10/5)
@ Red Sox

Monday (10/6)
@ Red Sox

Wednesday (10/8)
@ Angels

 

[WhiskeyBreath]

Why would they chose that series? I don't see how it makes sense for them.

 

[Foley]

It makes sense because their rotation isn't in as good shape as people think.

Saunders hasn't pitched in over a week because of a kidney stone, and has lost 8 pounds after being on a liquid diet in that time. He's scheduled to make a start on Sunday, and if that doesn't go well they may be hesitant to start him in the ALDS.

Lackey is 1-3 with a 7.96ERA and 1.92WHIP in his last 5 starts, and has given up at least 4ER in 4 of those 5 starts. This includes giving up 10ER in 2.2IP yesterday.

Garland has been absolutely abysmal in the second half, posting a 5.99ERA and 1.59WHIP since the ASB. He's been even worse in September, posting a 7.18ERA and 1.86WHIP for the month. Garland has already said he doesn't deserve to be on the playoff roster.

Santana has been great and Weaver has been decent, but there are some major question marks with the other 3 guys in their rotation. Scioscia has already said he planned on pitching Weaver out of the pen for the first round, which makes the most sense in case Saunders can't pitch or Lackey struggles again.

Overall the Angels staff pitched to the tune of a 4.78ERA in September, good for 11th worst in baseball in that span. The Red Sox 4.31ERA in September is good for best among AL playoff teams.

 

[WhiskeyBreath]

I know that their rotation has been beat up lately but who in their right mind would want to give Boston the chance to use Beckett and Lester twice in a 5 game series.

 

[Wendel]

If we can somehow beat the Angels and get out of the first round this team is winning the World Series.

 

[Foley]

I know that their rotation has been beat up lately but who in their right mind would want to give Boston the chance to use Beckett and Lester twice in a 5 game series.

A team that realizes in the other schedule they would get a clear disadvantage in game 4, while they would get no such disadvantage with the series they selected.

In this schedule the potential game 4 and 5 match-up would be Beckett/Lackey and Lester/Santana. Neither of those is a clear advantage for either team. Lackey has sucked recently so that may give a slight edge to Boston for that game, but game 5 is a toss-up.

In the other schedule the potential game 4 and 5 match-up would be Wakefield/Weaver and Beckett/Lackey. That game 4 match-up is an advantage for Boston. Wakefield has a 3.28ERA and 1.08WHIP at Fenway this year, while Weaver has a 6.75ERA and 1.78WHIP at Fenway this year (and on the season he has a 4.91ERA and 1.43WHIP on the road).

 

[WhiskeyBreath]

A team that realizes in the other schedule they would get a clear disadvantage in game 4, while they would get no such disadvantage with the series they selected.

In this schedule the potential game 4 and 5 match-up would be Beckett/Lackey and Lester/Santana. Neither of those is a clear advantage for either team. Lackey has sucked recently so that may give a slight edge to Boston for that game, but game 5 is a toss-up.

In the other schedule the potential game 4 and 5 match-up would be Wakefield/Weaver and Beckett/Lackey. That game 4 match-up is an advantage for Boston. Wakefield has a 3.28ERA and 1.08WHIP at Fenway this year, while Weaver has a 6.75ERA and 1.78WHIP at Fenway this year (and on the season he has a 4.91ERA and 1.43WHIP on the road).

Beckett/Lackey is a huge advantage for the Sox. Beckett is one of the best playoff pitchers ever and Lackey sucks vs Boston.

The Wake/Weaver matchup is a toss up. Weaver hasn't done well vs Boston and Wakefield is an awful playoff pitcher.

 

[Foley]

Lackey is 2-0 with a 2.81ERA and 0.69WHIP against Boston this year. Beckett is 0-2 with a 7.43ERA and 1.65WHIP against LAA this year. What they did in 2007 is not as important as what they have done in 2008. And regardless, if you want to call that a huge advantage it only emphasizes my point. Why would LAA select a schedule that gives Boston a huge advantage in what would be the clinching game of the series?

And yes, Wakefield has done poorly in recent playoffs, Weaver has done poorly against Boston. The fact that Wakefield has done great in Fenway while Weaver has done awful on the road is why I give Wakefield the advantage.

 

[WhiskeyBreath]

I put more stock into a players career success vs an opponent rather than the last couple games. Thats all.

 

[Foley]

Being that teams add players, lose players, and are different from year to year, I put more stock in recent history.

But again, if that match-up is a huge advantage, why would LAA choose a schedule that gives Boston a huge advantage in the clinching game of the series?

 

[patriotspride]

if the sox dont have lowell and drew. there wont be any advantage no matter who is pitching.

 

[ausbacker]

Wouldn't give Dice-K and Lester the b2b jobs? I know big game experience counts for alot, but on form would they be our best pitching combo atm?

 

[WhiskeyBreath]

if the sox dont have lowell and drew. there wont be any advantage no matter who is pitching.

How is Drew a loss? Other than one awesome month the guy has been awful.

 

[D-Money]

I am more concern with Lowell then Drew.I think Drew will play.This team needs to get pitching and hit these angels pitchers who are struggling heading into the post-season.

 

[WeezyFbaby]

this is gonna be a huge test for this team. they were dominated and embarrassed during the season but all that doesnt matter check everything at the door the key is who gets hot. Heres the advantage straight up. LAA hasnt played a meaningful game since July and boston has battled all season i think thats gonna be a huge advantage. It al depends on who gets hot if lester or beckett catch fire u would assume boston can win 3 vice versa if lackey or santana catch fire then they obviously have the advantage. Its a tough series to call and i think it will go to 5 and come down to who pitches the best.
Should be very interesting cant wait for it to start

 

[D-Money]

This bullpen will make me cringe come this coming week.Guys like Lopez and Del Carmen who fall behind the hitters.

 

[IcyPatriot]

Very unscientific but the way the Angels spanked us earlier in the year ... it's our turn. In a way I like that lester and Dice-K are starting the 1st 2 games ... game 3 with Beckett will put us up 2-1 at worst.

 

[patriotspride]

Very unscientific but the way the Angels spanked us earlier in the year ... it's our turn. In a way I like that lester and Dice-K are starting the 1st 2 games ... game 3 with Beckett will put us up 2-1 at worst.

nice spin but there is no way to spin it. having beckett go one game maybe in the series instead of two sucks.

 

[IcyPatriot]

nice spin but there is no way to spin it. having beckett go one game maybe in the series instead of two sucks.

Okay then ... he'll be available for the bullpen in game 5.

 

[Wildo7]

hopefully Lester can settle down here