AFC East Stock Ratings

[Metaphors]

Patriots

Short-term Rating = Hold

Fundamentals are strong and that carried the Pats through their 1st two games. KC was a game of survival and the Jets game provided strong emotion and focus. The next 3 games will be key in getting a read on this team. At home against an inferior team (Miami), on the road against an inferior team (SF) and on the road against a roughly equal team (SD).

If the Pats can take care of business against the teams they should beat, even if the final results are not dominant or flashy, that should be enough to reach the playoffs and possibly win the division. If the Pats can stay with the elite AFC teams (Indy, Pitt, SD, Denver), especially on the road, and be in position to win in the 4th quarter...then their rating improves to a "Buy" and that puts them solidly in the mix for a run at the title.

Long-term Rating = Buy

Would raise this to a "Strong Buy" except for Brady's injury (should be fine with a full year to recover, but you never know) and Wilfork's contract status (should be a top priority to re-sign, but you never know). The 3 year time horizon for the Pats is very strong. Key parts are already in place, talented youth in the pipeline, no cap issues and extra draft assets in the bank.

Bills

Short-term Rating = Buy

The Bills got incredibly lucky to get Seattle (no receivers) and Jacksonville (no lineman) out of the way early. The next 3 games (OAK, at STL, at ARZ) give them a chance to pad their record and gain some margin for error later. The Bills play all 3 phases well so they really only need to stay healthy, focused and consistent. Not a bad place to be at this point in the season.

The Bills have the players and a workable schedule to get to the playoffs. They just haven't done it with this crew so this rating could drop quickly with a key injury or a disappointing loss.

Long-term Rating = Hold

You can't rate a "Buy" when you aren't sure which city (or country for that matter) will be your home in 3 years. Financial instability also keeps the Bills from preventing or plugging holes in the roster, so the ship has the potential to sink without much notice.

The Bills are at a good stage in their development but need a permanent home and steady revenue stream to make the leap to an elite team.

Jets

Short-term Rating = Hold

There is talent all over the roster, but it seems to be disjointed and haphazard...including the coaching and gameplan. If the Jets can circle the wagons, there is no question they can be a dangerous team against anyone. A shaky win in Miami and a disheartening loss against the Pats didn't answer any questions. The next game at SD will be a good test. The Jets don't need to win, but they better show up strong and get some positive juju flowing. The next games are at home against beatable teams (Arizona, Cincy) and the faithful will not be in a patient frame of mind.

Bottom line is that the Jets still have lots of upside but also lots of questions about the results so far. The Jets are on the clock, more than a 1-1 team should be, to reach their potential or risk playing out the rest of this season in the NY media with a lame duck coach and an emotional wreck at QB.

Long-term Rating = Sell

The Jets are moving into a new stadium and need short-term success, but have they sacrificed too much in the long-term? Cap issues are looming on the horizon. Future picks gained for Kendall/Vilma are offset by a probable loss of a 3rd for Favre...and no comp picks are on the way to help out. Favre isn't the long-term solution and Jenkins (key to the 3-4) likely isn't either. Too many potential problems and not enough assets to solve them.

Dolphins

Short-term Rating = Sell

You don't want to be holding interest in this team in the short-term. Way too many key holes to be an effective team this year. The Arizona game was embarrassing and the Jets game just showed their ceiling is keeping a game close...not actually winning it. The Fins really need to take one of the next 3 (at NE, SD, at HOU) but that isn't going to be easy or likely.

Miami is slowly putting the right pieces in place, but this year is a giant write-off. Their focus should be squarely on player development and that will make the results look uglier than they really are. Watch for development of the youngsters, especially on the lines, to see when the Fins are ready to turn the corner.

Long-term Rating = Buy

The Fins look like they have a direction and plan and the people in place to implement it. No cap issues and a lot of their success will depend on if Henne develops into a top-notch leader of the offense. I'm betting that he will and it will be sooner rather than later. One good off-season (draft and FA) may be all it takes for Miami to go from doormat to competitive.

 

[Richter]

I largely agree, except on the Fins. I don't like their young talent outside of Satele, Ginn is a total bust, I'm not sold that Henne can become a solid quarterback, Ronnie Brown's knee is quite scary for his future prospects, and the defense is bereft of play-makers of any age. A good draft and a few shrewd free agent signings could change all this, but you could say that of any team.

 

[Watson's IQ]

I too am not convinced that Miami is as close as you imply. I know this is the NFL, and you can go from doormat to competitive overnight. I also think that there isn't anyone better at resurrecting moribund teams than Tuna. I just don't see it happening for a few years, and who knows if he'll be bored by then.

 

[Funktopus]

I just love it that some anonymous poster on a message board writes a better article that the Herald or foxsports.

My prediction: your Buy/Sell concept is hijacked by a local columnist scrambling to meet a deadline.

 

[Metaphors]

I too am not convinced that Miami is as close as you imply. I know this is the NFL, and you can go from doormat to competitive overnight. I also think that there isn't anyone better at resurrecting moribund teams than Tuna. I just don't see it happening for a few years, and who knows if he'll be bored by then.

As I said in my original post, I'm looking at the lines when judging the Fins development. Langford, Merling, Soliai are all youngsters that could be a solid foundation moving forward. Long and Satele are also young and Carey/Smiley are just entering their prime. That is a helluva set of potential to start with. If they develop and the Fins have the lines under control, it becomes infinitely easier to add playmakers (WR and DB specifically) around them.

It is really hard to project forward with teams in the early stages of rebuilding. My "buy" rating was based on having a strategy and having the foundation to execute on it. Bear in mind that if you could see my actual stock market experiences in the past, you would take my future projections with a serious grain of salt.

 

[PromisedLand]

I just love it that some anonymous poster on a message board writes a better article that the Herald or foxsports.

My prediction: your Buy/Sell concept is hijacked by a local columnist scrambling to meet a deadline.

I agree it was a great article, but dude, ESPN has been doing Buy or Sell for years on Around the Horn. So if anyone is doing any hijacking it is the OP.

 

[Metaphors]

I agree it was a great article, but dude, ESPN has been doing Buy or Sell for years on Around the Horn. So if anyone is doing any hijacking it is the OP.

Yeah, I really wasn't trying to be original. I've seen the whole buy/sell/hold concept used a million times in various contexts. Given the stock market reactions over the last couple of days, it seemed appropriate.

BTW, I watched that show you mentioned only once before...and it took me nearly a week to recover enough to be able to carry on an adult conversation. If they actually eliminated the "experts" from existence instead of just from the rest of the show, they could probably lure me back.

 

[billdog3484]

wow what is this????

 

[patsfanindoltsland]

yeah, not so sure about the dolphins. parcells is a great hc, but a gm? not so sure about that...considering one of his FA signings already has soured on them (ernest wilford), it just doesn't show promise for their ability to acquire talent. we'll have to see how they continue to draft.