Bill Simmons: 2008 AFC Predictions

[Disco Volante]

http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story?page=simmons/080904

Prediction No. 11: The Patriots will not make the Super Bowl.

I'm not feeling it. My Dad disagrees. We argued about it on the phone. He loves our easy schedule. I pointed out that the playoffs won't be so easy. He said I was a fair-weather fan and needed to move back home. I took it personally. Voices were raised. He asked me who I liked more than the Pats. I told him, "If my life depended on it, I'd go with Jacksonville." He pointed out my bipolar behavior during the Celtics' playoff run. I asked him to name three things that have gone right since January other than Belichick getting cheered on the Jumbotron during every big Celtics game. He drew a blank. I asked if there's been a single good sign in the gawd-awful preseason that I missed. He thought rookie middle linebacker Jerod Mayo looked good, and seemed mildly excited about LaMont Jordan. I asked if we could get 16 games out of Randy Moss again. He didn't know. I asked if it worried him that our offensive line gave away Super Bowl XLII and looked even worse in the preseason. He agreed that, yes, this was an awful sign. I asked him to name our starting cornerbacks. He said "Ellis Hobbs and maybe Wheatley, the rookie." I asked if that was the same Ellis Hobbs who he has been complaining about for the past two years. He said yes. We finally ended the conversation because it's much more fun these days to talk about Dustin Pedroia and Jed Lowrie.

Here's the point: I don't know what I'm getting from the Patriots this year. They still have a giant bull's-eye on them every week, only they don't have last season's depth because they didn't get enough from those rookie classes in 2006, 2007 and 2008 (partly because they dealt picks to get Moss and Wes Welker last year, partly because they lost No. 32 in this past draft with Spygate, partly because they uncharacteristically botched a few picks), and again, the offensive line and secondary loom as potential problem areas. Plus, what are the residual emotional effects from last season? Is Brady healthy? Will they wear down from being America's villain for the second straight year? I kept waiting for signs of life from the preseason … anything … just a glimmer. Nothing. They remind me of the Pistons from 2005 to 2007, a talented team that thinks it can just turn it on whenever it wants, only the Pats aren't quite as talented as they used to be. I am concerned.

 

[MetalBleachers]

Not sure I've ever typed this before, but here goes:
STFU.

Thank you. We now return you to your regularly scheduled programming.

 

[BadMoFo]

I can understand what he's saying. I know we have the potential to be as great as last year, but we also have the potential to be just another good team that doesn't win it all. It happens.

 

[BadMoFo]

Not sure I've ever typed this before, but here goes:
STFU.

Thank you. We now return you to your regularly scheduled programming.

Who exactly are you telling to shut the **** up?

 

[SoCal Pmen]

I don't expect everyone to pick NE to win it all. Just unrealistic and he makes some valid points.

 

[Nordberg]

Love Simmons.....He is on the level most of the time. His concerns are my concerns. I still think they will be 13-3 at days end....but, you can still bring into questions that he has.

 

[piemonade]

I have such a man crush on Bill Simmons(not cause of this though), even though I'm a colts fan.
It feels so dirty.

 

[BadMoFo]

I don't expect everyone to pick NE to win it all. Just unrealistic and he makes some valid points.

For the most part, everyone has picked us to win the division, but what last year has taught all these "experts" is that anyone can win it once they get into the playoffs.

 

[363839]

Simmons does have some good points in this column. Particularly regarding the offensive line.
He sounds more negative than I would expect of him normally. I wonder if he had a talking to from his superiors after his column that suggested his colleagues "grow up" about spygate.

 

[richpats]

I can understand what he's saying. I know we have the potential to be as great as last year, but we also have the potential to be just another good team that doesn't win it all. It happens.

I don't think we can be as great as last year, but we can be a great team that wins the Super Bowl, if that makes any sense.

 

[since67]

All I know is...ARE YOU READY FOR SOME FOOTBALL?!?!!!

 

[TruthSeeker]

Many of us (including myself) have these same concerns. What do you expect? We haven't really gotten to see the Patriots this year. Four weakly played exhibition games with neither our offense or defense doing much of anything?

Even after 4 weeks (of weak competition) in the regular season, we still may not know exactly how good the Patriots will be. And just because you can easily make the playoffs, perhaps with the #1 seed, that is certainly no guarantee of making the Super Bowl.

I'd really like to see a defense that dominates - at least that dominates some weak teams. I don't feel very confident of that. at all.

 

[JMarr]

"Prediction No. 11: The Patriots will not make the Super Bowl.

I'm not feeling it. My Dad disagrees. We argued about it on the phone. He loves our easy schedule. I pointed out that the playoffs won't be so easy. He said I was a fair-weather fan and needed to move back home. I took it personally. Voices were raised. He asked me who I liked more than the Pats. I told him, "If my life depended on it, I'd go with Jacksonville." He pointed out my bipolar behavior during the Celtics' playoff run. I asked him to name three things that have gone right since January other than Belichick getting cheered on the Jumbotron during every big Celtics game. He drew a blank. I asked if there's been a single good sign in the gawd-awful preseason that I missed. He thought rookie middle linebacker Jerod Mayo looked good, and seemed mildly excited about LaMont Jordan. I asked if we could get 16 games out of Randy Moss again. He didn't know. I asked if it worried him that our offensive line gave away Super Bowl XLII and looked even worse in the preseason. He agreed that, yes, this was an awful sign. I asked him to name our starting cornerbacks. He said "Ellis Hobbs and maybe Wheatley, the rookie." I asked if that was the same Ellis Hobbs who he has been complaining about for the past two years. He said yes. We finally ended the conversation because it's much more fun these days to talk about Dustin Pedroia and Jed Lowrie.

Here's the point: I don't know what I'm getting from the Patriots this year. They still have a giant bull's-eye on them every week, only they don't have last season's depth because they didn't get enough from those rookie classes in 2006, 2007 and 2008 (partly because they dealt picks to get Moss and Wes Welker last year, partly because they lost No. 32 in this past draft with Spygate, partly because they uncharacteristically botched a few picks), and again, the offensive line and secondary loom as potential problem areas. Plus, what are the residual emotional effects from last season? Is Brady healthy? Will they wear down from being America's villain for the second straight year? I kept waiting for signs of life from the preseason … anything … just a glimmer. Nothing. They remind me of the Pistons from 2005 to 2007, a talented team that thinks it can just turn it on whenever it wants, only the Pats aren't quite as talented as they used to be. I am concerned."


(Damn chicken littles again...)

 

[jared2181]

He seems to legitimately believe in jinxes. He also has that disaster of a column comparing the 2007 Pats with the '86 Celtics hanging over his head. My guess is that the negativity about this years Pats team is a sham.

 

[LloydBraun]

I agree with the buls-eye and the concerns about the OL.

But, what is the talk of a lack of depth? I feel that this team is quite deep in most areas, save for QB and experience in the secondary. The depth this year at LB is great ad the collection of backs hopefully means that the run game will be more of a focus.

Every team has questions, but I believe the Pats have the fewest.

 

[Cantabrigian]

Aboslutely agree about the jinx thing. I think he is trying to undo what he did last year for the Super Bowl. Who knows? Maybe it will work this year. He won't admit it this time though so we may be in for a series of downbeat assessments of the pats right up to the superbowl. We can watch out for a "I did it!" article after we win the superbowl.

 

[Richter]

Forget his stupid Patriots prediction, what the hell is with all the love for the Jaguars? I don't get it. They match up incredibly poorly with the Patriots and the Colts, they don't have a reliable outside threat on offense, and their pass defense is still as suspect as it has been for the past 5 years or so. That team has topped out, even with an easy schedule. No way do they get the top seed or make the Superbowl, let alone win it. Maybe, MAYBE, they could get by the Pats or the Colts, but not both.

 

[hyperpat]

So Simmons has gone p*ssy on us. Hey, it happens. Guys lose heart. They can't handle the pressure. Need to see something from their team mates, something that brings them back. Brings them back from the brink of capitulation. It's the glint in the eye, the authority in the tone. It's what leaders do. They inspire. They fire their men up. So fired up that every man plays better, plays with confidence. So fired up they don't just think they're going to win -- they KNOW it.

A leader is coming. He will take the field on Sunday. They will see him, see his fire and theirs will blaze up, burning hot and ready for the campaign. Ready for victory.

No. 12 approaches the huddle. . . the crowd holds its breath. . . . .

 

[Rob0729]

Forget his stupid Patriots prediction, what the hell is with all the love for the Jaguars? I don't get it. They match up incredibly poorly with the Patriots and the Colts, they don't have a reliable outside threat on offense, and their pass defense is still as suspect as it has been for the past 5 years or so. That team has topped out, even with an easy schedule. No way do they get the top seed or make the Superbowl, let alone win it. Maybe, MAYBE, they could get by the Pats or the Colts, but not both.

I think the Jags will win the South, but it isn't because I am in love with the Jags. It is because I think the Colts are in for a down year. I think they have a ton of injury concerns up and down their roster. How will Manning hold up if he has uncontrolable knee swelling as rumored? How will his line hold up with three rookies manning the interior part of their line with a center who has never snapped the ball to Manning ever other than a week or two worth of practice? Can Harrison rebound? Can Sanders stay healthy? Will Freeney regain his speed? How will they deal with their thin LB corp?

Personally, I think the Jags will stay about the same from last year. I just agree with Simmons that the Colts will struggle to make the playoffs. I pick them as a Wild Card right now, but I wouldn't be surprised if they miss the playoffs or even finish third in the AFC South.

 

[Rob0729]

As for Simmons, even though he wrote what he did, he does have the Pats losing to the Jags in the AFC Championship. It isn't like he has them as an one and done in the playoffs. I don't know if I buy some of his reasoning, but it isn't like he giving up on the season for the Pats.