2009 Preview - Where's the talent?

[DaBruinz]

OK. I know its really early in the season, but I just looked at a top 100 list and I was utterly blown away... Unless there is the largest junior class in NFL history to enter, this draft is going to be particularly thin on talent at the top of the draft. There were only about a dozen true 1st rounders with another dozen 1st/2nd rounders... The 2nd rounders took me through pick 40 and then the 2/3 and 3rd rounders took me to pick 75...

I know the Pats have 3 picks in the 1st 2 rounds and, probably 5 in the 1st 100 due to compensation for Samuel. However, its not looking great for the talent that will be available...

 

[patchick]

OK. I know its really early in the season, but I just looked at a top 100 list and I was utterly blown away... Unless there is the largest junior class in NFL history to enter, this draft is going to be particularly thin on talent at the top of the draft. There were only about a dozen true 1st rounders with another dozen 1st/2nd rounders... The 2nd rounders took me through pick 40 and then the 2/3 and 3rd rounders took me to pick 75...

Hmm...let's say that in a typical year, there are maybe two dozen "true first rounders." Last year about half (11) of the first two dozen players ranked by nfldraftscout were underclassmen. So if you counted a dozen seniors in that category for this year, that actually seems pretty solid.

[edited error]

 

[DaBruinz]

Hmm...let's say that in a typical year, there are maybe two dozen "true first rounders." Last year about half (11) of the first two dozen players ranked by nfldraftscout were underclassmen. So if you counted a dozen seniors in that category for this year, that actually seems pretty solid.

[edited error]

Patchick - Maybe the sites are getting better at predicting talent or maybe the talent just isn't there. I don't know. But in years past, there have usually been two dozen SENIORS who were listed as solid 1st rounders at this time of year, with another two to three dozen listed as tweeners and solid second rounders.

The last time it was like this was 2007, which BB claimed was a poor draft, talent wise.

 

[dryheat44]

Patchick - Maybe the sites are getting better at predicting talent or maybe the talent just isn't there. I don't know. But in years past, there have usually been two dozen SENIORS who were listed as solid 1st rounders at this time of year, with another two to three dozen listed as tweeners and solid second rounders.

The last time it was like this was 2007, which BB claimed was a poor draft, talent wise.

To be honest, I can't think of a draft with more than a handful of blue-chip seniors since the mid-90s. If they were that good as juniors, they left early. How many were there last year? Probably a half dozen (guessing).

 

[Jimke]

OK. I know its really early in the season, but I just looked at a top 100 list and I was utterly blown away... Unless there is the largest junior class in NFL history to enter, this draft is going to be particularly thin on talent at the top of the draft. There were only about a dozen true 1st rounders with another dozen 1st/2nd rounders... The 2nd rounders took me through pick 40 and then the 2/3 and 3rd rounders took me to pick 75...

I know the Pats have 3 picks in the 1st 2 rounds and, probably 5 in the 1st 100 due to compensation for Samuel. However, its not looking great for the talent that will be available...

The thing that may sweeten up the draft is the large influx of

juniors that you mentioned above. I read recently that juniors are

worrying that any new CBA might reduce rookie salaries.

 

[cstjohn17]

I try not to read too much into the quality of drafts, most of 5 studs, 10-20 good players and then a bunch of players that in the right situation could be good. Top end talent doesn't concern me because most years the Pats don't pick until around 30 so no point drooling about Calvin Johnson or Carson Palmer. It seems like every year there are some good players between pick 20 and pick 100. The Pats have 5 picks in that range, relying on past history 1 will be starter, 2 will be quality backups and 2 won't do anything.

The Pats can use more impact or depth at almost every unit and the draft is the cheapest and best way to develop a roster.

 

[Ochmed Jones]

Most of the best "senior" talent for this draft is playing in the NFL right now.

I expect that this year's 1st pick could be a third year sophomore, Crabtree.

I think the first round could have as many as 20 juniors in it, with the entire top five being a sophomore and 4 juniors.

But overall this draft could not possibly be as deep as last year's draft.

Defensive End appears to be the deepest part of this draft. OT also appears to have a good bit of depth as well. CB, QB, WR, and even RB appear very thin at this point,but could change dramaticaly by April.

 

[BelichickFan]

ILB is a good position this year with Lauranitis, Rey Maualuga, Darry Beckwith.

If you think the senior class is week, imagine if Lauranitis, Maualuga, Oher and Jenkins had all come out last year as some expected.

 

[Ochmed Jones]

ILB is a good position this year with Lauranitis, Rey Maualuga, Darry Beckwith.

If you think the senior class is week, imagine if Lauranitis, Maualuga, Oher and Jenkins had all come out last year as some expected.

Keep in mind that Virginia has a couple of LBers coming out this year, although I think one got hurt two weeks and is lost for the season.

ILB Sintim (or something like that) has decent size, takes few false steps and makes plays against most teams not named USC. Not sure how the kid is going to run or if Al is going to give BB the thumbs up on this kid yet, but based purely on what happens on the field, I think the kid can play for us.

 

[Afterlifemobile-86]

Not trying to be a homer.....

But MLB Frantz Joseph- Florida Atlantic
Was a transfer from BC and has been a beast for us ever since. Him playing at FAU could also make him a sleeper in later rounds.

Also like DE George Selvie- U of South Florida. Guy is insane and would be an interesting prospect especially with this being Seymor's last year under contract.

Keep an eye on Javon Ringer RB out of Michigan State. I'm kind of concerned about Maroney's progress.

 

[dryheat44]

Not trying to be a homer.....

But MLB Frantz Joseph- Florida Atlantic
Was a transfer from BC and has been a beast for us ever since. Him playing at FAU could also make him a sleeper in later rounds.

Also like DE George Selvie- U of South Florida. Guy is insane and would be an interesting prospect especially with this being Seymor's last year under contract.

Keep an eye on Javon Ringer RB out of Michigan State. I'm kind of concerned about Maroney's progress.

I know nothing about Joseph, so thanks for the heads up, and keep us posted.

I like Selvie also, but there's no way he's a DE in the 3-4.

Ringer shows flashes, but in my eyes, he's the 8th-10th best RB this year. I think the two Clemson guys will be successful if Spiller comes out, obviously Wells and Moreno, Lucky, Adrian Foster, Mike Davis, PJ Hill....

Oh, and Pat Hill has a 6-4 260 lb Tight End named Bear. I think we need a guy like that next year.

 

[patchick]

Oh, and Pat Hill as a 6-4 260 lb Tight End named Bear. I think we need a guy like that next year.

Huh...a Fresno State Bulldog from rural central California who moonlights as a rodeo calf roper? Nah, the Patriots would never draft a guy like that.

 

[Ochmed Jones]

Correction

Keep in mind that Virginia has a couple of LBers coming out this year, although I think one got hurt two weeks and is lost for the season.

ILB Sintim (or something like that) has decent size, takes few false steps and makes plays against most teams not named USC. Not sure how the kid is going to run or if Al is going to give BB the thumbs up on this kid yet, but based purely on what happens on the field, I think the kid can play for us.

Appleby is the ILB on Virginia.

Sintim is the OLB.

 

[Ochmed Jones]

I know nothing about Joseph, so thanks for the heads up, and keep us posted.

I like Selvie also, but there's no way he's a DE in the 3-4.

Ringer shows flashes, but in my eyes, he's the 8th-10th best RB this year. I think the two Clemson guys will be successful if Spiller comes out, obviously Wells and Moreno, Lucky, Adrian Foster, Mike Davis, PJ Hill....

Oh, and Pat Hill has a 6-4 260 lb Tight End named Bear. I think we need a guy like that next year.

Selvie is a heck of a player. If you want a play maker on defense, he is the guy this year.

In the crying shame column; Mike Davis fumbled away the upset of the season last Saturday.

 

[KillEM]

I've been watching USC and there's two players that stick out to me that I'd love to draft for our Defense. Everyone knows Bruschi and Harrison are on their last legs. Rey Mauluauga would be an obvious choice but I doubt he will be around at our pick. Some of the more unheralded defensive players on USC that would fit in well with the Patriots...

OLB/ILB/DE - Brian Cushing - Versatile play maker. Could play any LB spot in our D. You know Belichick loves versatile players. Cushings 6'4 250lbs so he has the size for the 3-4. Also pretty fast. Can get to the Quarterback and stop the run. Jack of all trades. Could step in and take over Bruschi's spot, and eventually move to OLB when Vrabel retires.


SS - Kevin Ellison - Big strong safety. Similar size to Rodney Harrison. Aggressive. Lays out the big hit. Looks like a 2nd-3rd rounder prospect now but I think he will end up in the early-mid 2nd. 6'1 225lbs. He'd eventually take over the SS spot from James Sanders. And even if he didn't, he adds much needed depth and could fill in that hybrid SS/OLB spot that Belichick planned for Tank Williams before he was injured. Very intelligent. Smartest player on the USC defense.


It's possible we could land Cushing in round 1 and Ellison in round 2. Though they might both go higher than our picks. Who knows. Players draft stocks rise and fall so often, but as of now Cushing's a mid-late round 1 player and Ellison's a 2-3rounder. They would bring a lot of energy and youth to our rebuilding defense, and at positions of need.

 

[KillEM]

George Selvie will be a Top 5 pick. Probably to either Miami or San Francisco, as they both employ the 3-4 defense and Selvie projects to a 3-4 OLB.

No way we have a chance at drafting him.

 

[KillEM]

2009 Team Needs

ILB - Starter - Or atleast someone to split snaps with Bruschi and eventually replace him. ILB is a must in the first round unless there's a really good can't-miss prospect that slips to us.

SS - Starter/Depth - Is James Sanders really the future when Rodney retires? I don't think so. I'm not a fan of Sanders as he lets up some big plays and misses quite a few tackles. I hope we draft his replacement in the 2nd round.

CB - Depth - Hobbs and ONeal look good so far. Wheatley will eventually become a starter. Wilhite looks like a decent depth/ST player. Still, a CB in the 2nd/3rd or 4th(at latest) is a must. Unless ofcourse we find something in Free Agency or make a big trade. More likely scenerio though, we draft one.


Other than that, there aren't any needs. WR could use some youth. Though after the Chad Jackson BUST, I doubt we use a high pick on WR again. Our Offense is set right now. WR's are solid, QB is the best in the game, OLine is one of the best in the league, RB's are all good. The Defense is the main area of focus. I think we go Defense with our first 3 picks to fill those needs, then draft a WR and Guard in the later rounds.

 

[dryheat44]

George Selvie will be a Top 5 pick. Probably to either Miami or San Francisco, as they both employ the 3-4 defense and Selvie projects to a 3-4 OLB.

No way we have a chance at drafting him.

I have to believe that the Niners have to go quarterback there.

 

[PATS68]

Love draft talk.

Went back and looked at 2008 draft to see what the Pats could of had with that other 1st round pick. I think it would have been a trade or DE Merlin or Phillips.

100% agree with KillEm's team needs. I would love to see them take another LB, either outside or inside. The D could be outstadning and most of all fast like we have not seen before.

I think at some point Pats have also think about a WR to develop.

 

[Ochmed Jones]

I've been watching USC and there's two players that stick out to me that I'd love to draft for our Defense. Everyone knows Bruschi and Harrison are on their last legs. Rey Mauluauga would be an obvious choice but I doubt he will be around at our pick. Some of the more unheralded defensive players on USC that would fit in well with the Patriots...

OLB/ILB/DE - Brian Cushing - Versatile play maker. Could play any LB spot in our D. You know Belichick loves versatile players. Cushings 6'4 250lbs so he has the size for the 3-4. Also pretty fast. Can get to the Quarterback and stop the run. Jack of all trades. Could step in and take over Bruschi's spot, and eventually move to OLB when Vrabel retires.


SS - Kevin Ellison - Big strong safety. Similar size to Rodney Harrison. Aggressive. Lays out the big hit. Looks like a 2nd-3rd rounder prospect now but I think he will end up in the early-mid 2nd. 6'1 225lbs. He'd eventually take over the SS spot from James Sanders. And even if he didn't, he adds much needed depth and could fill in that hybrid SS/OLB spot that Belichick planned for Tank Williams before he was injured. Very intelligent. Smartest player on the USC defense.


It's possible we could land Cushing in round 1 and Ellison in round 2. Though they might both go higher than our picks. Who knows. Players draft stocks rise and fall so often, but as of now Cushing's a mid-late round 1 player and Ellison's a 2-3rounder. They would bring a lot of energy and youth to our rebuilding defense, and at positions of need.

You have to be careful with Carroll's USC players, not many have excelled in the NFL after a stellar career at USC. A lot of scouts openly question the heart and desire of USC players.

The hardest part of grading Cushings is on coverage, he never drops back into coverage, so it is impossible to get a complete projection on him, especially as a 3-4 OLB, without that element.

I thought Ellison played a great game going forward (toward the LOS) , but looked terrible in coverage. For a safety he plays with a lot of nastiness and I love that in a player. I wish more Patriots had a nasty streak to them than just Light and Harrison.