Pass-run balance and the shotgun
Posted 09-24-2009 at 08:10 PM by jmt57
After two weeks of play the hot topics of conversation have centered on the Pats offense. The debates have centered on the offensive play calling; specifically the pass-run ratio, number of plays from the shotgun, and offensive formation. I thought I would go back to the Bills and Jets games to see if I could find something more specific – you know, to allow myself to come to a semi-intelligent conclusion rather than simply shout “the Pats need to run more!” or “fire/cut (fill in the blank)”. Here’s a look at each of the Pats drives in the first two games. Note the numbers may not exactly match official statistics due to penalties and sacks.
Week One versus Buffalo
1st drive: 2 passes, 1 run; shotgun: 1 pass, 0 runs
2nd drive: 5 passes, 5 runs; shotgun: 4 passes, 2 runs
3rd drive: 2 passes (including 1 sack), 1 run; shotgun: 1 pass, 1 run
2nd quarter
4th drive: 7 passes, 6 runs; shotgun: 5 passes, 1 run
5th drive: 1 pass, 1 run; shotgun: 1 passes, 0 run
2:00 warning
5th drive (continued): 5 passes, 1 run; all from shotgun
3rd quarter
6th drive: 10 passes, 3 runs; shotgun: 7 passes, 0 runs
7th drive (Pats down by 7): 4 passes, 0 runs; shotgun: 4 passes, 0 runs
4th quarter
7th drive (continued): 4 passes, 2 runs; shotgun: 3 passes, 0 runs
8th drive (Pats down by 11, 5:32 remaining): 11 plays, all passes from shotgun
9th drive (Pats down by 5, 1:56 remaining): 3 plays, all passes from shotgun
Totals: 54 passes, 20 runs; shotgun: 45 passes, 5 runs
Very unbalanced, right? But what does it look like if you take away the plays after the two-minute warning in the first half, and the last two drives when the Pats were down by 11 late in the 4th quarter?
Adjusted totals: 35 passes, 19 runs; from the shotgun: 26 passes, 4 runs.
Still fairly unbalanced, but now it doesn’t look quite so bad as the first set of numbers did. Actually the first half doesn’t look bad at all other than a couple of three-and-outs.
But did that have an effect on the play selection to open the second half?
On the first two drives after halftime the Pats almost exclusively passed out of the shotgun: 18 passes and only 5 runs. Look how predictable the Pats became: they passed all 14 times when they went to the shotgun on those two drives; at least when Brady took the snap from under center they passed 4 times and ran 5 times.
Week Two at Jets
1st drive: 3 passes, 4 runs; shotgun: 2 passes, 3 runs
2nd drive: 3 passes, 0 runs; shotgun: 2 passes, 0 runs
3rd drive: 4 passes, 1 run; shotgun: 3 passes, 1 run, 2 penalties
4th drive: 3 passes, 4 runs; shotgun: 2 passes, 2 runs
2nd quarter
5th drive: 6 passes, 3 runs; shotgun: 4 passes, 0 runs, 2 penalties
6th drive: 5 passes, 3 runs; shotgun: 5 passes, 1 run
2-minute warning
6th drive (continued): 5 passes, 0 runs; shotgun: 5 passes, 1 penalty
3rd quarter
7th drive: 2 passes, 1 run; shotgun: 2 passes, 1 run
(Pats down by 4)
8th drive: 3 passes, 5 runs; shotgun: 3 passes, 3 runs, 2 penalties
4th quarter
(Pats down by 7 with 9:48 left)
9th drive: 4 passes, 1 run; shotgun: 4 passes, 0 runs
(Pats down by 7 with 5:01 left)
10th drive: 6 passes, 1 run; shotgun: 6 passes, 1 run
(Pats down by 7 with 1:48 left)
11th drive: 5 passes, 0 runs; shotgun: 5 passes, 0 runs
Totals: 49 passes, 23 runs
From the shotgun: 43 passes, 12 runs, 6 penalties
From under center: 6 passes, 11 runs
Last two minutes of first half and last two drives of the game: 16 passes and one run - all from the shotgun.
Rest of the game: 33 passes, 22 runs
From the shotgun: 27 passes, 11 runs
From under center: 6 passes, 11 runs
At least the runs were split 50-50 between the shotgun and under center. However, the formation still gave the play away, even more so than the Buffalo game. Even after taking away all the plays at the end of the half and at the end of the game, the Pats still pass well over twice as often as they run out of the shotgun, and run about twice as often as they pass when under center. Overall the balance between the run and the pass doesn’t look that bad (3:2), but keep in mind we’re not including those end of half and end of game plays.
So in conclusion it looks like those wanting the Pats to show more commitment to the run may be correct; same holds true for those that would like to see a bit less of the shotgun. Actually as it turns out that’s almost two different ways of saying the same thing: when Brady lines up in the shotgun it’s a near certainty that he’s going to pass, and if the Pats run the ball it most likely will come when Brady’s under center. How about becoming a bit less predictable in order to take advantage of an unsuspecting defense? Set up in a passing formation and let a running back shoot through the gap vacated by the pass rusher looking for a sack. Line up under center then drop back to shotgun, and visa versa. After a few running plays go to a play action pass. Run the ball when the defense is coming all out for the quarterback, expecting him to pass. If they start laying back a bit after getting burnt, now you have more time to throw.
I know I’m guilty of being an armchair quarterback with the benefit of 20-20 hindsight, but the Pats just simply need to be less predictable if they are to succeed. One other area that they can improve on in order to achieve that goal is with their personnel, or more specifically with their offensive formations. Against the Jets the Pats utilized a 3-WR, 1-TE, 1-RB set on nearly every single play. One time they used two running backs, and one time they used two tight ends (both with two receivers.) Come on, that’s just flat out pathetic. Pop Warner ten year olds mix up their offense more than that. Let’s not only see some two-tight end sets, but passes thrown out of that formation. Or how about a draw play from a four-wideout formation?
Mix it up. Keep the opponent guessing. Zig when they expect you to zag. Stay one step ahead and keep the other guys off balance. And whatever you do, don’t take your foot off the accelerator.
Week One versus Buffalo
1st drive: 2 passes, 1 run; shotgun: 1 pass, 0 runs
2nd drive: 5 passes, 5 runs; shotgun: 4 passes, 2 runs
3rd drive: 2 passes (including 1 sack), 1 run; shotgun: 1 pass, 1 run
2nd quarter
4th drive: 7 passes, 6 runs; shotgun: 5 passes, 1 run
5th drive: 1 pass, 1 run; shotgun: 1 passes, 0 run
2:00 warning
5th drive (continued): 5 passes, 1 run; all from shotgun
3rd quarter
6th drive: 10 passes, 3 runs; shotgun: 7 passes, 0 runs
7th drive (Pats down by 7): 4 passes, 0 runs; shotgun: 4 passes, 0 runs
4th quarter
7th drive (continued): 4 passes, 2 runs; shotgun: 3 passes, 0 runs
8th drive (Pats down by 11, 5:32 remaining): 11 plays, all passes from shotgun
9th drive (Pats down by 5, 1:56 remaining): 3 plays, all passes from shotgun
Totals: 54 passes, 20 runs; shotgun: 45 passes, 5 runs
Very unbalanced, right? But what does it look like if you take away the plays after the two-minute warning in the first half, and the last two drives when the Pats were down by 11 late in the 4th quarter?
Adjusted totals: 35 passes, 19 runs; from the shotgun: 26 passes, 4 runs.
Still fairly unbalanced, but now it doesn’t look quite so bad as the first set of numbers did. Actually the first half doesn’t look bad at all other than a couple of three-and-outs.
But did that have an effect on the play selection to open the second half?
On the first two drives after halftime the Pats almost exclusively passed out of the shotgun: 18 passes and only 5 runs. Look how predictable the Pats became: they passed all 14 times when they went to the shotgun on those two drives; at least when Brady took the snap from under center they passed 4 times and ran 5 times.
Week Two at Jets
1st drive: 3 passes, 4 runs; shotgun: 2 passes, 3 runs
2nd drive: 3 passes, 0 runs; shotgun: 2 passes, 0 runs
3rd drive: 4 passes, 1 run; shotgun: 3 passes, 1 run, 2 penalties
4th drive: 3 passes, 4 runs; shotgun: 2 passes, 2 runs
2nd quarter
5th drive: 6 passes, 3 runs; shotgun: 4 passes, 0 runs, 2 penalties
6th drive: 5 passes, 3 runs; shotgun: 5 passes, 1 run
2-minute warning
6th drive (continued): 5 passes, 0 runs; shotgun: 5 passes, 1 penalty
3rd quarter
7th drive: 2 passes, 1 run; shotgun: 2 passes, 1 run
(Pats down by 4)
8th drive: 3 passes, 5 runs; shotgun: 3 passes, 3 runs, 2 penalties
4th quarter
(Pats down by 7 with 9:48 left)
9th drive: 4 passes, 1 run; shotgun: 4 passes, 0 runs
(Pats down by 7 with 5:01 left)
10th drive: 6 passes, 1 run; shotgun: 6 passes, 1 run
(Pats down by 7 with 1:48 left)
11th drive: 5 passes, 0 runs; shotgun: 5 passes, 0 runs
Totals: 49 passes, 23 runs
From the shotgun: 43 passes, 12 runs, 6 penalties
From under center: 6 passes, 11 runs
Last two minutes of first half and last two drives of the game: 16 passes and one run - all from the shotgun.
Rest of the game: 33 passes, 22 runs
From the shotgun: 27 passes, 11 runs
From under center: 6 passes, 11 runs
At least the runs were split 50-50 between the shotgun and under center. However, the formation still gave the play away, even more so than the Buffalo game. Even after taking away all the plays at the end of the half and at the end of the game, the Pats still pass well over twice as often as they run out of the shotgun, and run about twice as often as they pass when under center. Overall the balance between the run and the pass doesn’t look that bad (3:2), but keep in mind we’re not including those end of half and end of game plays.
So in conclusion it looks like those wanting the Pats to show more commitment to the run may be correct; same holds true for those that would like to see a bit less of the shotgun. Actually as it turns out that’s almost two different ways of saying the same thing: when Brady lines up in the shotgun it’s a near certainty that he’s going to pass, and if the Pats run the ball it most likely will come when Brady’s under center. How about becoming a bit less predictable in order to take advantage of an unsuspecting defense? Set up in a passing formation and let a running back shoot through the gap vacated by the pass rusher looking for a sack. Line up under center then drop back to shotgun, and visa versa. After a few running plays go to a play action pass. Run the ball when the defense is coming all out for the quarterback, expecting him to pass. If they start laying back a bit after getting burnt, now you have more time to throw.
I know I’m guilty of being an armchair quarterback with the benefit of 20-20 hindsight, but the Pats just simply need to be less predictable if they are to succeed. One other area that they can improve on in order to achieve that goal is with their personnel, or more specifically with their offensive formations. Against the Jets the Pats utilized a 3-WR, 1-TE, 1-RB set on nearly every single play. One time they used two running backs, and one time they used two tight ends (both with two receivers.) Come on, that’s just flat out pathetic. Pop Warner ten year olds mix up their offense more than that. Let’s not only see some two-tight end sets, but passes thrown out of that formation. Or how about a draw play from a four-wideout formation?
Mix it up. Keep the opponent guessing. Zig when they expect you to zag. Stay one step ahead and keep the other guys off balance. And whatever you do, don’t take your foot off the accelerator.
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