Statistical Trend: Chargers Game Was Not A Surprise
As ugly as last night's Chargers game was - an all around poor game by the entire team - the outcome should not come as a surprise to anybody. The Chargers are one of the very best teams in the league, and were playing at home in what they probably considered their biggest game of the year. But beyond those facts, there are additional statictics that were overlooked prior to the 30-10 debacle. Let's take a look at how all NFL teams have fared in similar scenarios so far this year.
1. Back-To-Back Road Games
NFL teams are collectively 4-10 when playing the second game of back-to-back road games in 2008. In none of those wins did the winning team have to travel a great distance across multiple time zones. One of those was against a winless team within the same state, and another was against a quarterback with a seperated shoulder.
3 Dolphins 38 at Patriots 13 (W) [1st ‘wildcat’ game]
3 Saints 32 at Broncos 34
3 Raiders 23 at Bills 24
4 Cardinals 35 at Jets 56
4 Browns 20 at Bengals 12 (W) [short distance, winless team]
4 Texans 27 at Jaguars 30
5 Falcons 27 at Packers 24 (W) [short distance; QB hurt]
5 Bills 17 at Cardinals 41
5 Vikings 30 at Saints 27 (W)
5 Chargers 10 at Dolphins 17
5 Redskins 23 at Eagles 17
6 Bears 20 at Falcons 24
6 Bengals 14 at Jets 26
6 Patriots 10 at Chargers 30
2. Traveling Across Multiple Time Zones
Teams traveling across three time zones are collectively 2-11 this season. The two wins are on a game ending jump ball, and when the winning team was coming off a bye. Eight of those games were decided by 14 points or more.
1 Panthers 26 at Chargers 24 (W)
1 Seahawks 10 at Bills 34
2 Dolphins 10 at Cardinals 31
3 Cardinals 17 at Redskins 24
3 Raiders 23 at Bills 24
3 Jets 29 at Chargers 48
4 Cardinals 35 at Jets 56
5 Bills 17 at Cardinals 41
5 Chargers 10 at Dolphins 17
5 Patriots 30 at 49ers 21 (W) [coming off bye week]
6 Patriots 10 at Chargers 30
6 Seahawks 6 at Giants 44
6 Eagles 40 at 49ers 26
To look at the affect of travel a bit more also consider what happens when having to travel two time zones away. The result is not as pronounced, but still worth noting: a 3-6 record. That means that teams traveling across two or more time zones are 5-17 this year. A .227 winning percentage is far enough off the norm that it should not be ignored. It is also worth mentioning that two of those wins were against third-string quarterbacks.
2 Raiders 23 at Chiefs 8 (W) [1-win Chiefs; 3rd-string QB]
3 Lions 13 at 49ers 31
3 Rams 13 at Seahawks 37
4 49ers 17 at Saints 31
5 Bucs 13 at Broncos 16
6 Cowboys 24 at Cardinals 30
6 Jaguars 24 at Broncos 17 (W)
6 Packers 27 at Seahawks 17 (W) [3rd string QB]
6 Raiders 3 at Saints 34
There is no doubt that the Pats have many issues (besides Matt Cassel) that need to be worked out, including among other things the offensive line's run and pass blocking, lack of pressure by the defense, and coverage by the secondary. The bottom line is that there may be not an excuse, but an explanation for why the Patriots looked so sluggish last night. Hopefully that trend will continue when Denver comes in to Foxboro.
1. Back-To-Back Road Games
NFL teams are collectively 4-10 when playing the second game of back-to-back road games in 2008. In none of those wins did the winning team have to travel a great distance across multiple time zones. One of those was against a winless team within the same state, and another was against a quarterback with a seperated shoulder.
3 Dolphins 38 at Patriots 13 (W) [1st ‘wildcat’ game]
3 Saints 32 at Broncos 34
3 Raiders 23 at Bills 24
4 Cardinals 35 at Jets 56
4 Browns 20 at Bengals 12 (W) [short distance, winless team]
4 Texans 27 at Jaguars 30
5 Falcons 27 at Packers 24 (W) [short distance; QB hurt]
5 Bills 17 at Cardinals 41
5 Vikings 30 at Saints 27 (W)
5 Chargers 10 at Dolphins 17
5 Redskins 23 at Eagles 17
6 Bears 20 at Falcons 24
6 Bengals 14 at Jets 26
6 Patriots 10 at Chargers 30
2. Traveling Across Multiple Time Zones
Teams traveling across three time zones are collectively 2-11 this season. The two wins are on a game ending jump ball, and when the winning team was coming off a bye. Eight of those games were decided by 14 points or more.
1 Panthers 26 at Chargers 24 (W)
1 Seahawks 10 at Bills 34
2 Dolphins 10 at Cardinals 31
3 Cardinals 17 at Redskins 24
3 Raiders 23 at Bills 24
3 Jets 29 at Chargers 48
4 Cardinals 35 at Jets 56
5 Bills 17 at Cardinals 41
5 Chargers 10 at Dolphins 17
5 Patriots 30 at 49ers 21 (W) [coming off bye week]
6 Patriots 10 at Chargers 30
6 Seahawks 6 at Giants 44
6 Eagles 40 at 49ers 26
To look at the affect of travel a bit more also consider what happens when having to travel two time zones away. The result is not as pronounced, but still worth noting: a 3-6 record. That means that teams traveling across two or more time zones are 5-17 this year. A .227 winning percentage is far enough off the norm that it should not be ignored. It is also worth mentioning that two of those wins were against third-string quarterbacks.
2 Raiders 23 at Chiefs 8 (W) [1-win Chiefs; 3rd-string QB]
3 Lions 13 at 49ers 31
3 Rams 13 at Seahawks 37
4 49ers 17 at Saints 31
5 Bucs 13 at Broncos 16
6 Cowboys 24 at Cardinals 30
6 Jaguars 24 at Broncos 17 (W)
6 Packers 27 at Seahawks 17 (W) [3rd string QB]
6 Raiders 3 at Saints 34
There is no doubt that the Pats have many issues (besides Matt Cassel) that need to be worked out, including among other things the offensive line's run and pass blocking, lack of pressure by the defense, and coverage by the secondary. The bottom line is that there may be not an excuse, but an explanation for why the Patriots looked so sluggish last night. Hopefully that trend will continue when Denver comes in to Foxboro.
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