New U-H Horizontal Sort, 3/26

[dryheat44]

After re-working the board, and keeping with a Patriot-centric emphasis, here's how the board shapes up. Some high-profile guys, like McFadden and Ryan, are missing since they'll be gone long, long before the Patriots would consider drafting them. I could probably do the same with others on the list (Rodgers-Cromartie, Felix Jones), but given the rises and falls of the weeks leading up to the draft, I've kept them on, so if the man made the first version, he's still here. Remember, this is where their value to the 2008 New England Patriots would be, as seen through the eyes of the senile Uncle, so guys with injury or character issues are farther down than they would otherwise be so as to minimize risk, if they haven't been altogether removed.


Tier 1 -- Value #1-#8
Jake Long OT Michigan
Chris Long LB Virginia

Tier 2 -- Value #9-#20
Vernon Gholston LB Ohio St
Ryan Clady OT Boise St
Quentin Groves LB Auburn
Glenn Dorsey DE LSU
Sedric Ellis DE USC

Tier 3 -- Value #21-#35
Andre Caldwell WR Florida
Devin Thomas WR Michigan St
Brandon Albert G Virginia
Aqib Talib CB Kansas
Leodis McKelvin CB Troy
Antoine Cason CB Arizona

Tier 4 -- Value #36-#55
Jonathan Stewart RB Oregon
Felix Jones RB Arkansas
Limas Sweed WR Texas
Malcolm Kelly WR Oklahoma
Early Doucett WR LSU
Chris Williams OT Vanderbilt
Anthony Collins OT Kansas
Gosder Cherilus OT Boston College
Cliff Avril LB Purdue
Erin Henderson LB Maryland
Jerod Mayo LB Tennessee
Johnathan Goff LB Vanderbilt
Branden Flowers CB Virginia Tech
Reggie Smith DB Oklahoma

Tier 5 -- Value #56-#75
Chad Henne QB Michigan
Joe Flacco QB Delaware
Eddie Royal WR Virginia Tech
Earl Bennett WR Vanderbilt
Eric Young G Tennessee
Sam Baker G USC
Ezra Butler OLB Nevada
Derrick Harvey OLB Florida
Pat Sims DE Auburn
Trevor Laws DE Notre Dame
Kentwan Balmer DE North Carolina
Red Bryant NT Texas A&M
Tracy Porter CB Indiana
Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie CB Tennessee St
Quentin Demps S UTEP
Josh Barrett Arizona St

Tier 6 -- Value #76-#100
Matt Forte RB Tulane
Brad Cottam TE Tennessee
Oneil Cousins OL UTEP
Charles Godfrey CB Iowa
Chevis Jackson DB LSU
Tom Zbikowski S Notre Dame
Jamar Adams S Michigan

Tier 7 -- Value #101-#125
Kevin Smith RB Central Florida
Chris Johnson RB East Carolina
Tashard Choice RB Georgia Tech
Owen Schmitt FB/TE West Virginia
John Greco OT Toledo
Duane Brown OT Virginia Tech
Mike Pollack C Arizona St
Stanford Keglar LB Purdue
Jeremy Thompson LB Wake Forest
Ahtyba Rubin NT Iowa St
Frank Okam NT Texas
Jack Williams CB Kent St
Patrick Lee S Auburn
Derrick Doggett S Oregon St
Wesley Woodyard S Kentucky

Tier 8 -- Value #126-#150
Erik Ainge QB Tennessee
Josh Johnson QB San Diego
Ray Rice RB Rutgers
Lavelle Hawkins WR California
Darius Reynard WR West Virginia
Paul Hubbard WR Wisconsin
Kevin Robinson WR Utah St
Craig Stevens TE California
Jeremy Zuttah G Rutgers
Kory Lichtensteiger C Bowling Green
John Sullivan C Notre Dame
Chase Ortiz ILB TCU
Trevor Scott OLB Buffalo
Gary Guyton OLB Georgia Tech
Bryan Kehl OLB BYU
Nick Hayden DE Wisconsin
Marcus Harrison DE Arkansas
Kellen Dykes DE West Virginia
Dwight Lowery CB San Jose St.
Jonathan Zenon CB LSU
Jonathan Wilhite CB Auburn
Antwan Molden CB Eastern Kentucky
Craig Steltz S LSU

Tier 9 -- Value #151-#200
Sam Keller QB Nebraska
Thomas Brown RB Georgia
Jacob Hester RB LSU
Chauncey Washington RB USC
Jalen Parmele RB Toledo
Jerome Simpson WR Coastal Carolina
Gary Barnidge TE Louisville
Kellen Davis TE Michigan St
Drew Miller C Florida
Drew Radovich G USC
Hilee Taylor LB North Carolina
Jeremy Leman LB Illinois
Jack Ikeguonu CB Wisconsin

Tier 10 -- Value #201-UDFA
Seth Adams QB Mississippi
Albert Young RB Iowa
Marcus Thomas RB UTEP
Keon Lattimore RB Maryland
Justin Beaver RB Wisconsin - Whitewater
Peyton Hillis FB Arkansas
Marcus Henry WR Kansas
Roderick Johnson ILB Oklahoma St
Kaleb Thornhill ILB Michigan St
Martail Burnett ILB Utah
Jeff Van Orsow ILB Oregon St
Rudy Hardie ILB Howard
Marc Magro ILB West Virginia
Casper Brinkley OLB South Carolina
Jonal Saint-Dic OLB Michigan St
Andy Studebaker OLB Wheaton
Bob Williams S Bethune-Cookman

[mike100915]

I think Gholston has to be in tier 1. He performance is just as good as Chris Long's. Also, I think Groves should be moved down to tier 3. I'm just not as high on him as the others are. As good as Jake Long is, I'm don't think he is a Franchise LT. He'll be an excellent pro, but he'll never be a lock down LT. Yes, he was good at Michigan, but he can be beat handly by speed rushers. In the NFL, he'll deal with them 85% of the time. I'll still love to see him there at #7, but I think when it comes to tier 1 players. It's Chris Long, Vernon Gholston, and Glenn Dorsey.

[dryheat44]

Originally Posted by mike100915

I think Gholston has to be in tier 1. He performance is just as good as Chris Long's. Also, I think Groves should be moved down to tier 3. I'm just not as high on him as the others are. As good as Jake Long is, I'm don't think he is a Franchise LT. He'll be an excellent pro, but he'll never be a lock down LT. Yes, he was good at Michigan, but he can be beat handly by speed rushers. In the NFL, he'll deal with them 85% of the time. I'll still love to see him there at #7, but I think when it comes to tier 1 players. It's Chris Long, Vernon Gholston, and Glenn Dorsey.

Dorsey's probably the best football player in the draft. I moved him down a tier because I don't think he represents top 8 draft pick value to the Patriots with Seymour, Warren, and Green all under contract. That being said, if they traded down to, say, 15, and he was still there by some fluky development, they'd probably take him and worry about it later.

[cstjohn17]

Wow, you love this stuff.

My interpretation (assuming no trade downs) is that you expect:
Pick #7 - the Pats to get a player from Tier 2 (maybe, maybe, maybe Tier 1)
Pick #62 - maybe Tier #4, likely Tier 5
Pick #69 - Tier 5
Pick #94 - Tier 6, maybe Tier 5

I could live with that, on paper we would get 1 starter and 2-3 quality reserves at LB and CB.

Comments
- you may be overating the LBs, it is easy to do because we focus so much energy on 'future' Patriot LBs
- you are clearly not high on Harvey, but Tier5? Wow, I can respect a man who holds a grudge

[BradyManny2344]

Thanks for posting - great stuff as usual.

[dryheat44]

Originally Posted by cstjohn17

Wow, you love this stuff.

My interpretation (assuming no trade downs) is that you expect:
Pick #7 - the Pats to get a player from Tier 2 (maybe, maybe, maybe Tier 1)
Pick #62 - maybe Tier #4, likely Tier 5
Pick #69 - Tier 5
Pick #94 - Tier 6, maybe Tier 5

you are clearly not high on Harvey, but Tier5? Wow, I can respect a man who holds a grudge

I wouldn't expect we would need to go below Tier 5 in the first three rounds. When I mocked it out, there was still a player or two in Tier 4 that were still there, although I've since adjusted. Different draft boards for different teams.

I'm unaware of the grudge of which you speak.

[mike100915]

I disagree with your assesement of Glenn Dorsey. Yes, he is more suited to be a 4-3 tackle, but so was Vince Wilfork. Give Dorsey a year in this system and he will be more dominant then Wilfork is. With the recent play and health concerns of Richard Seymour, I don't think passing on Dorsey would make any sense. He won't be there come #7 anyways, but he's a football player, who can play effectively in any system.

[BradyManny2344]

What do you think of Chris Williams for the Pats? I see you have him in Tier 4, but if the Pats could trade down to the middle or end of round 1, he would certainly be one of the guys on my list who I'd be hoping for them to get. I've been on the Clady bandwagon and in general think the OL could use some help, Williams later in the draft may present better value than Clady.

[mike100915]

Originally Posted by BradyManny2344

What do you think of Chris Williams for the Pats? I see you have him in Tier 4, but if the Pats could trade down to the middle or end of round 1, he would certainly be one of the guys on my list who I'd be hoping for them to get. I've been on the Clady bandwagon and in general think the OL could use some help, Williams later in the draft may present better value than Clady.

I personally believe taking an OL at #7 would be a mistake. That have alot more issues on defense. OL wasn't a problem at all last year until the Super Bowl. They can add more depth in the OL in rounds 4 and 5.

[Metaphors]

Originally Posted by dryheat44

Tier 1 -- Value #1-#8
Jake Long OT Michigan
Chris Long LB Virginia

First off, I think this type of exercise is more interesting than a mock draft. Miss the prediction on a guy early and it can domino the rest of the selections into oblivion.

Now...I agree with your selection Jake and also agree with others wanting to put Gholston in tier 1. I am still missing the love for Chris Long in the Patriots' system. I've seen him play in a handful of games in the last few years and I don't see an easy transition to OLB. He hasn't done it before and the success he has had at DE (inside penetration) translates marginally to OLB.

Chris Long is a fine player and I think he would do really well in St. Louis, Oakland or Cincinnati as a disruptive DE in both the passing and running game. I could see a team taking him on as a conversion project at pick #20 because he has refined skills and football seems very important to him. I can't see taking him at #1, #6 or #7 and crossing your fingers on a huge cash investment.

Gholston has played with his hand off the ground, but he seemed more effective playing as a traditional DE. That being said, his outside speed rush and ability to engage blockers on the edge seem to translate better to what is expected of a Pats OLB.

Anyone out there who has seen Chris Long play in games (highlights always look good and combine numbers are of marginal worth) have a different assessment about his game at UVA and how it would translate to a Pats OLB?