Handicapping the Pats pick

[rookBoston]

After years of picking Carpenter, Lawson, Posluszny, Griffin and all kinds of good players who never get picked, I've finally decided to take a different approach to Pats draft evaluation this year. Instead of picking THE GUY who I think the Pats are going to select, I've decided to content myself with handicapping based on (1) who's likely to be there and (2) who's likely be perceived as "value" for the Pats.

Here's how I see the race breaking down, if the Pats select #2 overall:

30% RB McFadden - he's a fit, regardless of what you think of Moroney
25% Trade Down - if Miami takes Dorsey, teams will move up to take McFadden
18% DE Long - mature prospect with 4 years playing in a 3-4 at Al Groh's hands
14% DT Dorsey - if Miami takes McFadden, BPA gives us elite depth on the interior line
12% OT Long - completes the OL for the history books, pushing Kaczur to into #3 swing tackle role
1% The Field - if no one wants to trade into the #2 spot, BB may just take the player he wants. Laurinaitis, Gholston, Ellis, Jenkins-- feasilbe, but would be a shocking reach at #2 overall


Here's how I see the race breaking down, if the Pats select #5 overall:

15% DE Long - good value at #2, great value at #5 and he might just be there
15% Trade Down - trading back into the 8-12 range would still produce an elite starter
9% DL Ellis - underrated. Could play NT or any DL position for the Pats
8% ILB Laurinaitis - fits a chronic need
8% CB Jenkins (USF) - hard hitting replacement for Asante
8% The Field - lot of good players not listed here
8% OLB Gholston - very trendy pick for the Pats, but a reach at #5
6% OT Long - luxury pick, but unlikely to last this long
6% DE Campbell - downgraded because he's so raw... but looks good on paper!
6% CB Jenkins (OSU) - elite corner, but I need to know more before I bump him up higher
4% ILB Maualuga - assuming he declares
3% OLB Harvey - BB likes kids from Florida
2% Trade Up - long shot, but what if BB sees HOF potential in Dorsey or McFadden?
1% S Phillips - I dont like this kid for the Pats, but cant deny he's in the hunt
1% DT Dorsey - silly to think he'd last until #5... but stranger things have happened
*% RB McFadden - snowball's chance in hell

[Ochmed Jones]

The kid from TExas A&M Red something of another looks like he could be a solid NT in a 3-4 and be secured on the second day of the draft.

[dryheat44]

Originally Posted by Ochmed Jones

The kid from TExas A&M Red something of another looks like he could be a solid NT in a 3-4 and be secured on the second day of the draft.

I've seen him showing up in the first round of mock drafts lately. He has potential to go Top 15 with a great Pro-Day and Combine. I think he's definitely in play with a trade down or trade up if we can't extend Vince between now and the draft.

[mgteich]

We won't panic on a 2010 need.

Originally Posted by dryheat44

I've seen him showing up in the first round of mock drafts lately. He has potential to go Top 15 with a great Pro-Day and Combine. I think he's definitely in play with a trade down or trade up if we can't extend Vince between now and the draft.

[mgteich]

I think that we would have short list at five, and an easy decision. I think moving up would be likely than down. There will be a lot of movement between now and draft day, but we should be fine choosing among

Dorsey
McFadden
Long
Long
These were your four elite players if we picked at #2

I would think that a QB might be picked in the top five, leaving us one of these four and very satisfied. The next tier for should include Laurentitis and our best rated corner, and the possibility of moving down a couple of spots if none of our elite players are left.

There are usually 2-7 top elite players. It would seem that we will be able to get one of them. I don't think that we will pass. This is why we traded with SF, to have this chance.

Originally Posted by rookBoston

After years of picking Carpenter, Lawson, Posluszny, Griffin and all kinds of good players who never get picked, I've finally decided to take a different approach to Pats draft evaluation this year. Instead of picking THE GUY who I think the Pats are going to select, I've decided to content myself with handicapping based on (1) who's likely to be there and (2) who's likely be perceived as "value" for the Pats.

Here's how I see the race breaking down, if the Pats select #2 overall:

30% RB McFadden - he's a fit, regardless of what you think of Moroney
25% Trade Down - if Miami takes Dorsey, teams will move up to take McFadden
18% DE Long - mature prospect with 4 years playing in a 3-4 at Al Groh's hands
14% DT Dorsey - if Miami takes McFadden, BPA gives us elite depth on the interior line
12% OT Long - completes the OL for the history books, pushing Kaczur to into #3 swing tackle role
1% The Field - if no one wants to trade into the #2 spot, BB may just take the player he wants. Laurinaitis, Gholston, Ellis, Jenkins-- feasilbe, but would be a shocking reach at #2 overall


Here's how I see the race breaking down, if the Pats select #5 overall:

15% DE Long - good value at #2, great value at #5 and he might just be there
15% Trade Down - trading back into the 8-12 range would still produce an elite starter
9% DL Ellis - underrated. Could play NT or any DL position for the Pats
8% ILB Laurinaitis - fits a chronic need
8% CB Jenkins (USF) - hard hitting replacement for Asante
8% The Field - lot of good players not listed here
8% OLB Gholston - very trendy pick for the Pats, but a reach at #5
6% OT Long - luxury pick, but unlikely to last this long
6% DE Campbell - downgraded because he's so raw... but looks good on paper!
6% CB Jenkins (OSU) - elite corner, but I need to know more before I bump him up higher
4% ILB Maualuga - assuming he declares
3% OLB Harvey - BB likes kids from Florida
2% Trade Up - long shot, but what if BB sees HOF potential in Dorsey or McFadden?
1% S Phillips - I dont like this kid for the Pats, but cant deny he's in the hunt
1% DT Dorsey - silly to think he'd last until #5... but stranger things have happened
*% RB McFadden - snowball's chance in hell

[Ochmed Jones]

I think if QB Woodson will be a fast riser after the bowls and combine. If he has a great off season it is not hard to imagine him carving out a spot in the top 5. (Especially with Atlanta out there.)

[VJCPatriot]

Originally Posted by mgteich

There are usually 2-7 top elite players. It would seem that we will be able to get one of them. I don't think that we will pass. This is why we traded with SF, to have this chance.

I agree. If BB sees a special player, he will take him. This was the entire point of the SF trade, to get a chance to get one of those elite players. It may not seem FAIR that the Pats get to do this after the season they're having, but it's a product of savvy management and draft day trades.

[PatDaPatriot]

A lot is going to depend on what they do in free agency. At this time last year many of us were expecting the Pats to draft a wide receiver. After free agency, wide receiver wasn't a huge draft need. Who knows what will happen with Samuel and at linebacker...

I expect Vernon Gholston to shoot up the draft board. He'll test well at the combine, and he's proven to be a productive football player. Come April he won't be a reach at picks 5-8, and I believe he will be a Patriot next season...