Bust factor

[cstjohn17]

Rather than moving up to take a player I would like to see the Pats stay where they are and take 2 good to very good players that can play at a high level for the next five years. Adding a 1st rounder into any of the units will immediately improve the depth.

This is my list of players, we should be able to get 2 of the top 12 on this list and really shore up the overall roster.

For best rendering use the attached Excel file.

Upside (10-Pro Bowl - 1-Reserve depth)
Bust Risk (10 Low risk - 1 -High Risk)
Rank Name Pos Upside Bust risk Score Comments
1 Adam Carriker DE 10 8 80 Appears to be in impact player in any scheme, little chance he is around at 24
2 Michael Griffin S 7 7 49 Solid, played very well at a top program against the best competition, very good tackler wood improve secondary
3 Levi Brown RT 7 7 49 Low risk, immediate upgrade at RT
4 Justin Blalock RT/OG 7 7 49 Low risk, immediate upgrade at RT
5 Aaron Sears RT/OG 7 7 49 Low risk, immediate upgrade at RT
6 Leon Hall DB 8 6 48 Should be a solid player, 3rd CB in year 1, little chance he is around at 24
7 Marshawn Lynch RB 8 6 48 Will be an impact player
8 Darelle Revis DB 9 5 45 Big upside, 3rd corner in year 1 as well as 3rd FS, good versatility
9 Reggie Nelson S 9 5 45 Huge upside , a bit concerned about his size but should play at a high level for all 5 years
10 Ben Grubbs OG 7 6 42 I doubt they take a guard, but he is the best one out there
11 Anthony Spencer DE 8 5 40 Solid players, seems to be improving, can pass rush and hold the edge, not sure if he can cover
12 Lawrence Timmons LB 8 5 40 Not a great fit in our scheme but has very good natural ability
13 Joe Staley OT 9 4 36 Huge upside, potential LT, immediate upgrade at RT
14 Jarvis Moss DE 9 4 36 Huge upisde, pretty skinny, injury history
15 Aaron Ross DB 7 5 35 Solid player, may never be great, adds value as punt returner
16 Patrick Willis LB 7 5 35 Good player, injury history
17 Paul Posluszny LB 7 5 35 Good player, a little small to play ILB
18 Sidney Rice WR 7 5 35 Raw, WRs were all tagged as high risk
19 Dwayne Jarrett WR 8 4 32 Speed may be an issue, WRs were all tagged as high risk
20 Robert Meachem WR 8 4 32 Solid specimen, WRs were all tagged as high risk
21 Chris Houston DB 7 4 28 Good athelete, not positive he will be a great football player
22 Jon Beason LB 7 4 28 Pretty small for an ILB
23 Dwayne Bowe WR 7 4 28 Solid, not special, WRs were all tagged as high risk
24 Ted Ginn WR 8 3 24 Big bust potential, good be dynamic as a returner, WRs were all tagged as high risk

Players off board
Ryan Kalil OL not big enough to play guard
Eric Wright DB character
Marcus Thomas DT not worth first round
Tony Ugoh OT not worth first round
Greg Olsen TE we love our tight but enough is enough

[Warren94]

Eric Wright is a good corner playing at UNLV. Olson does not catch the ball with his hands so he is a work-out warrior. Moss has a bigger bust potential than Beason. Blalock is over-rated and is more of a guard than a OT.

JMO

[Warren94]

Bowe is one of the most complete wide-outs. can block, runs great routes.

[Box_O_Rocks]

I don't get that warm fuzzy feeling of contentment reading this list, but rather than contest your analysis I'll just ask this question about Joe Staley: how does a LT who is considered a weak/inexperienced run blocker an immediate upgrade at RT?

[cstjohn17]

Originally Posted by Box_O_Rocks

I don't get that warm fuzzy feeling of contentment reading this list, but rather than contest your analysis I'll just ask this question about Joe Staley: how does a LT who is considered a weak/inexperienced run blocker an immediate upgrade at RT?

Contest away, I see Staley as a very athetic tackle with a mean, physical demeanor. If he can play LT in the pros I don't see RT as a major reach. There is a lot of love for Kaczur and O'Callaghan but all I see is inconsistency. Maybe Kaczur rebounds (he is also 28) and O'Cal should improve moving into year 2 but the position can be upgraded.

[cstjohn17]

Originally Posted by Warren94

Eric Wright is a good corner playing at UNLV. Olson does not catch the ball with his hands so he is a work-out warrior. Moss has a bigger bust potential than Beason. Blalock is over-rated and is more of a guard than a OT.

JMO

Wright brings a lot of baggage, attempted rape is a deal breaker for me. Olsen is not on my list.

I could be talked out of Sears or Blalock, but in general round 1 RTs are low risk picks.

[Warren94]

Griffin is Over-Rated.

[Box_O_Rocks]

Originally Posted by cstjohn17

Contest away, I see Staley as a very athetic tackle with a mean, physical demeanor. If he can play LT in the pros I don't see RT as a major reach. There is a lot of love for Kaczur and O'Callaghan but all I see is inconsistency. Maybe Kaczur rebounds (he is also 28) and O'Cal should improve moving into year 2 but the position can be upgraded.

O'C's selection was a stunner for me, I'm waiting to see how he performs after the off-season program - I'm hoping Woicik & Nash (& hopefully Davis) improve his foot speed. Kaczur impressed me as a rookie and if healthy I think can do an even better job for us, I'm not that worried about his age, his expiration date should come some time after his contract concludes. I expect him to be better for ending the season in apparent good health, allowing him to fully participate in the off-season work.

Staley is a good looking kid from what I've seen and what I've read. I'd have no problem seeing his name posted at the end of round one. Where we seem to differ is what he can bring to the table right away. I don't see a kid who reportedly has trouble with run blocking winning a starting job out of training camp - especially at RT. I'd be more inclined to take Tony Ugoh who is a commanding run blocker, and work with his athleticism to improve his pass blocking. Either way, barring injury, Light and Kaczur have the inside track for the two tackle positions as the most well-rounded OTs on the roster. Your guess is as good as mine as to which one goes where.

[VJCPatriot]

I like Nelson's upside more than Griffin.
I'd rather go for an LT replacement in the 1st than an RT upgrade.
LT is a much harder position to fill and we have plenty of candidates to plug into RT even if you don't like em all that much.

I would take a top CB prospect any day over Griffin.
Let me elaborate.
Clements just signed an 8 yr/80M contract. He is an above average proven CB.
The top safeties in the game would love to be getting paid 4M/year.
See what I'm talking about?

[cstjohn17]

Originally Posted by VJCPatriot

I like Nelson's upside more than Griffin.
I'd rather go for an LT replacement in the 1st than an RT upgrade.
LT is a much harder position to fill and we have plenty of candidates to plug into RT even if you don't like em all that much.

I would take a top CB prospect any day over Griffin.
Let me elaborate.
Clements just signed an 8 yr/80M contract. He is an above average proven CB.
The top safeties in the game would love to be getting paid 4M/year.
See what I'm talking about?

We agree about Nelson, IMO more upside, more risk of a bust than Griffin.

I disagree about the rest of it though, drafting for $$$ cost alone is the exact opposite of what I am saying. If Sears/Blalock/Brown are seen as an improvement at RT and can play the position for 5 years at a fairly high level then they move up on my board and are attractive at 28.

As far as drafting for positions that cost money, it is getting the point that they all cost money. This has not effected the Pats stategy for making first round picks (TEs, 1 Guard). If they don't think Samuel will be staying then CB is more of a need but I would rather take an above average S or RT than an average CB.