Best guess at our Comp picks

[FreeTedWilliams]

I was surfing the net and came across a couple of KFFL posters who have come up with a decent formula for projecting the comp picks that the NFL awards. They seem to be pretty close ever year, so I thought I would try to project the Pats comp picks for this year.

Their basic formula goes mostly by how much the players are getting paid per year (salary + signing bonus), with smaller factors such as playing time and post season honors (Pro-Bowl) counting much less.


So the Patriots signed
Reche Caldwell 1.3 million/yr
Mel Mitchell 856,000/yr

and lost
David Givens Texans 4.8 million/yr
Tom Ashworth Seahawks 2.6 million/yr
Adam Vinateri Colts 2.4 millon/yr
Andre Davis Bills 1.3 million/yr
Christian Fauria Redskins 1 million/yr
Tim Dwight Jets 875,000/yr
Matt Chatham Jets 585,000/yr (could not find the amount of his signing bonus so this amount should actually fo up)


last year the comp picks were awarded for the following salaries and rounds
3rd round- 5.167 mil/yr +
4th round- 4.16-5.5 mil/yr
5th round- 2.6-3.5 mil/yr
6th round- 1.97-2.9 mil/yr
7th round- 1.75-585,000/yr

As you can see the amount overlap, so they must take into effect playing time and post season honors. Assuming inflation these amounts will go up this year. So I project the following:

So if you cancel out Caldwell with Andre Davis, and Mitchell with Dwight, that leaves the following players and compensation:

Givens 4.8 mil/yr (IR after week 5)- 4th round

Vinateri 2.4 mil/yr (16 games) - 5th round (highest paid kicker, former pro bowler)

Ashworth 2.6 mil/yr (games played 16/ games started 6)-6th round

Possible extra pick:
Chatham 585,000 + unknown SB (started 16 games)- 7th round

I know that Jonathan Kraft is crying for a third round comp, but I just can't see it happening, especially if you consider that Givens got hurt.

Fauria only played in 9 games and had only 2 receptions, so I don't think that the Pats will get compensated for him or Michael Stone.

Other fun facts about the comp picks that I learned:
The NFL gives out 32 comp picks every year
The max picks any one team can get is 4
After the NFL figures out what comp picks are to be awarded using the FA loss/gained formula, the remaining comp picks left are awarded as if there was an 8th round of the draft. So say the NFL figures that it has to award 28 comp picks, it will automatically give the remaining 4 picks as 7th round comp picks to the teams with the worst records in this years case Oakland, Detriot, CLeveland, Tampa Bay, etc.

[cstjohn17]

Good stuff Ted, do you need a hat? I don't want your ears to get cold.

What is truly amazing is that I find this stuff interesting... In my head I had guessed 5,5,6... the more picks the better

What about Wille McGinnest? that could be another 6... I hope we use some of the picks to move around and take specific players or trade them for 08 picks. I don't see a need for 10-12 draft picks with only 7-8 having realistic chances to make the roster.

[Remix 6]

Givens isnt a Texan

[spacecrime]

Originally Posted by cstjohn17

What about Wille McGinnest? that could be another 6...

WMG doesn't count. He was cut, not a FA.

[patpatriot]

What is behind J Kraft's belief that the pats will get a compensatory 3rd rd pick? I heard him says that was what he expected in a radio interview (Felger)? Wishfull thinking/politicing or realistic assessment? You guestimates are fine IMHO. That would give us:

Rd 1:
24 & 28

RD 2:
60

Rd 3:
92

Rd 4:
124
129 (comp)

Rd 5:
161 (comp)

Rd 6:
166 (Az trade)
193 (comp)

RD 7
220
225 (comp)

Add a mid-50s pick for Samuel and you've got quite a haul!

[patpatriot]

Here's some possible choices around the pats draft positions based on GBN and Foxsports:

24:

# *Darrelle Revis CB 5-11,190 Pittsburgh
# *Lawrence Timmons LB 6-3, 230 Florida State
# Adam Carriker DE 6-5, 290 Nebraska
# *Jon Beason LB 6-0, 230 Miami
# *Robert Meacham WR 6-2, 205 Tennessee
# Ryan Kalil C 6-4, 291 Southern California

28:

# Ryan Kalil C 6-4, 291 Southern California
# *Zach Miller TE 6-5, 260 Arizona State
# Anthony Spencer DE 6-3, 265 Purdue
# Brandon Meriweather FS 5-11, 190 Miami
# Quinn Pit**** DT 6-3, 301 Ohio State
# Michael Griffin FS 5-11, 195 Texas

92:

# Ben Grubbs OG 6-3, 315 Auburn
# Ryan McBean DT 6-5, 278 Oklahoma State
# Justin Durant LB 6-1, 230 Hampton
# Joe Newton TE 6-7, 260 Oregon State
# Sabby Piscitelli SS 6-3, 225 Oregon State
# Ilaika Alama-Francis DE 6-5, 255 Hawaii
# Manny Ramirez OG 6-3, 335 Texas Tech


124

Paul Williams WR 6-1, 200 Fresno State
Steve Smith WR 6-0, 195 Southern California
Noland Burchette DE 6-4, 260 Virginia Tech
Kelvin Smith LB 6-2, 235 Syracuse
Corey Hilliard OG 6-5, 315 Oklahoma State
David Clowney WR 6-0, 180 Virginia Tech

129 (comp)

# J.D. Nelson FS 6-0, 215 Orgon
# *Ryan Smith CB 5-10, 170 Florida
# Cory Anderson FB 6-2, 265 Tennessee
# Desmond Bishop LB 6-1, 240 California
# Justin Warren LB 6-2, 245 Texas A&M
# Kenny Scott CB 6-1, 175 Georgia Tech
# Clark Harris TE 6-5, 255 Rutgers

161 (comp)

Kevin Boss TE
Joel Filani WR
Daniel Sepulveda P
Jeff Samardzija WR Notre Dame
Cory Anderson FB Tennessee
Justin Hickman OLB UCLA 6-1 260 4.74

Rd 6:
166 (Az trade)

Tim Duckworth OG Auburn 6-3 305 5.38
Chase Pittman DE LSU 6-5 272 4.84
Brandon Jackson RB Nebraska 5-11 210 4.49
Justin Medlock K UCLA 6-0 198 4.89
Brandon Harrison SS Stanford 6-2 215 4.58
Danny Ware RB Georgia 6-1 223 4.58

193 (comp)

Matt Trannon WR Michigan State 6-6 232 4.67
Quincy Black OLB New Mexico 6-2 228 4.69
Gary Russell RB Minnesota 5-11 195 4.49
David Patterson DT Ohio State 6-2 274 4.94
Keith Jackson DT Arkansas 6-0 295 4.99
Allen Barbre OT Missouri Southern State 6-4 302 4.98
Cameron Stephenson OG Rutgers 6-5 305 5.28 6
Scott Stephenson C Iowa State 6-4 305 5.23



RD 7
220

Uche Nwaneri OG Purdue 6-3 305 5.30
Kyle Young C Fresno State 6-5 328 5.34
Steve Rissler OG Florida 6-3 305 5.26
Herb Taylor OT TCU 6-4 292 5.08
Jeff Rowe QB Nevada 6-5 225 4.85
Dallas Sartz OLB Southern Cal 6-5 238 4.69
C.J. Gaddis FS Clemson 6-0 210 4.48
Gerald Alexander FS Boise State 6-0 205 4.56

225 (comp)

Craig Dahl SS North Dakota State 6-1 212 4.53
Zach Latimer ILB Oklahoma 6-1 235 4.77
Derek Schouman FB Boise State 6-2 234 4.64
Joe Anoai DT Georgia Tech 6-3 288 4.96
Michael Allan TE Whitworth 6-6 252 4.69
Xzavie Jackson DE Missouri 6-3 283 4.79
Selvin Young RB Texas 5-11 215 4.57
Joe Cohen DT Florida 6-2 290 4.84
Dan Mozes C West Virginia 6-3 300 5.26

[FreeTedWilliams]

I think we absolutely have to draft Manny Ramirez!!

I will buy the jeresy tommorrow!!

Then we can take bets on how long it takes Manny to realize that they are not talking about him during Patriot games.

[BradyManny2344]

Originally Posted by FreeTedWilliams

I think we absolutely have to draft Manny Ramirez!!

I will buy the jeresy tommorrow!!

Then we can take bets on how long it takes Manny to realize that they are not talking about him during Patriot games.

LOL, we gotta draft Manny Ramirez. I don't care if it's for the good of the team or not.

[ctpatsfan77]

Originally Posted by patpatriot

Here's some possible choices around the pats draft positions based on GBN and Foxsports:

24:
28:
92:

What about 60?

[SamBamsFan]

Looking @ the major free agent signings @/ or above David Givens' AAV:

A Archuletta STL $5.3M/yr
L Bentley NO $6M/yr
D Brees SD $10M/yr
N Burleson MIN $7M/yr
A Carter SF $6M/yr
S Hutchinson SEA $7M/yr
D Howard NO $5.08M/yr
E James IND $7.5M/yr
J Peterson SF $7.71M/yr
A Randal-El PIT $5.5M/yr
D Thornton IND $4.6M/yr
B Williams MIN $6.33M/yr

Did I forget anyone?