2006 Value Groupings

[rookBoston]

Wanted to solicit the board for their value groupings.

To kick things off, I'll post mine. I think I'm already on record with my belief that this is the year of the Linebacker for the Pats, and if we take a Receiver in the first, barring a trade down, I'll absolutely bust a gut.

Keys:
Keep a short board. Only the players that you really want. Remember, you're only going to get ONE of these players, barring a miracle, so make sure every single name that you list is someone you're willing to stake your career on. And remember, you should be perfectly ambivalent over which player you get our of any given group-- they should all value out exactly equal in your mind.


Group 1 - unique
(RB Reggie Bush, DE Mario Williams)

Group 2 - rookie starters for the Pats
(LB AJ Hawk, NT Haloti Ngata, SS Michael Huff, LB Chad Greenway, LB Bobby Carpenter)

Group 3 - elite upside
(LB Manny Lawson, FS Donte Whitner, LB Mathias Kiwanuka, LB Kamerion Wimbley, CB Richard Marshall)

Group 4 - sophmore starters
(RB Deangelo Williams, RB Lawrence Moroney, CB Jimmy Williams, RB Joseph Addai, LB Thomas Howard)

Group 5 - key contributors
(WR Sinorice Moss, DE Tamba Hali, LB Mark Anderson, LB Darryl Tapp, DL Jonathan Lewis, DE John McCargo, LB Roger McIntosh, CB Ashton Youboti)

Note, esp. the players I've left off. I dont want Jackson on the team. I dont want Justice or even D'Brick. I had Vernon Davis in Group 2, but I took him off because I dont like what the scouts have to say about his pass blocking. Jimmy Williams is on the board, but I'm thinking of taking him off. Tye Hill didn't make the cut.

And, yes, I've rated Carpenter ahead of Lawson, and Greenway on par with Hawk, and Marshall ahead of Deangelo... that's just my personal take on value to the team. That's what value groupings are all about.

[PonyExpress]

Rook,

I agree with a lot here. The problem I have with Jackson is, without being too insulting, he doesn’t appear to be the sharpest tool in the shed…

As far as Carpenter goes, I’m not so sure. Profootballweekly just tagged him as having “character concerns�. These concerns are, according to their head writer Nawrocki, an inability to get along with his teammates and lack of leadership. Combined with the report from NextLevelScouting about Carpenter being prissy and immature at his pro day, I’m not sure this is the guy I want at ILB, the leadership position on the Pats, for the foreseeable future. If PFW and NLS are reporting the same thing, that constitutes a trend. Maybe we should be cautious before putting Carpenter in the “elite� category.

[Box_O_Rocks]

I wasn't too focused on value groups for my master board, but I could work with the following groupings (though I'd be more inclined to take best value off my shopping list):

Impact DE/OLB: Manny Lawson, Darryl Tapp
Athletic (Swing) OT: Eric Winston, Daryn Colledge, Andrew Whitworth, Guy Whimper
LB to SS conversion: Jon Alston, Brian Iwuh, Keith Ellison, Kevin Schimmelmann
DE/ILB: Chris Gocong, Mike Kudla
Two-down ILB: Oliver Hoyte, Kai Parham, Tim Dobbins, Tim McGarigle
Possession WR: Mike Hass, Brandon Marshall
Second Tier Possession WR: Greg Jennings, Maurice Stoval, Jason Avant

[flutie2phelan]

Originally Posted by rookBoston

....
Keys:
Keep a short board. Only the players that you really want. Remember, you're only going to get ONE of these players, barring a miracle, so make sure every single name that you list is someone you're willing to stake your career on. And remember, you should be perfectly ambivalent over which player you get our of any given group-- they should all value out exactly equal in your mind.
....

I've been waiting almost two years for this.

First off, your "Keys" sound like the keys to the kingdom.

Cranking in PonyExpress' well-reasoned objection to Carpenter ...
and my remembered impression of the probable flow of picks ahead of us ...
implies that we'll get EITHER Greenway OR Lawson OR Kiwi.

Followed by a good RB.

And another decent LB.

After another choice pick ... comes Day2.
All in all, a Christmas to remember!

[bosfan]

Whenever I start to plug names into certain rounds I feel it is a futile exercise. We all know we are strategically positioned to have a solid draft and I'm content with that. When the smoke clears we can evaluate our new players and am sure we will have some selected a nice group of reinforcements. Oh yeah, it's fun to speculate who might be where or if we will trade up/down or whatever but in the end if we address LB/DB/WR and RB with our initial picks, I will feel I nailed day one (whatever the names are).

[mgteich]

You say that we will get one of these.

1) Is this then your Round 1 Board?

2) I presume some we would have to trade up for; some we would trade down for.

3) I'm somewhat confused by your categories. Are there really no other receivers that could be sophomore starters. I may be nitpicking on label. Group 4 looks like players I would trade down for in the 1st and Group 3 who I would expect to get at 21. I understand we thane would need to move depending on how the draft goes. Are Group 5 expected to there in the top of the second?

Originally Posted by rookBoston

Wanted to solicit the board for their value groupings.

To kick things off, I'll post mine. I think I'm already on record with my belief that this is the year of the Linebacker for the Pats, and if we take a Receiver in the first, barring a trade down, I'll absolutely bust a gut.

Keys:
Keep a short board. Only the players that you really want. Remember, you're only going to get ONE of these players, barring a miracle, so make sure every single name that you list is someone you're willing to stake your career on. And remember, you should be perfectly ambivalent over which player you get our of any given group-- they should all value out exactly equal in your mind.


Group 1 - unique
(RB Reggie Bush, DE Mario Williams)

Group 2 - rookie starters for the Pats
(LB AJ Hawk, NT Haloti Ngata, SS Michael Huff, LB Chad Greenway, LB Bobby Carpenter)

Group 3 - elite upside
(LB Manny Lawson, FS Donte Whitner, LB Mathias Kiwanuka, LB Kamerion Wimbley, CB Richard Marshall)

Group 4 - sophmore starters
(RB Deangelo Williams, RB Lawrence Moroney, CB Jimmy Williams, RB Joseph Addai, LB Thomas Howard)

Group 5 - key contributors
(WR Sinorice Moss, DE Tamba Hali, LB Mark Anderson, LB Darryl Tapp, DL Jonathan Lewis, DE John McCargo, LB Roger McIntosh, CB Ashton Youboti)

Note, esp. the players I've left off. I dont want Jackson on the team. I dont want Justice or even D'Brick. I had Vernon Davis in Group 2, but I took him off because I dont like what the scouts have to say about his pass blocking. Jimmy Williams is on the board, but I'm thinking of taking him off. Tye Hill didn't make the cut.

And, yes, I've rated Carpenter ahead of Lawson, and Greenway on par with Hawk, and Marshall ahead of Deangelo... that's just my personal take on value to the team. That's what value groupings are all about.

[rookBoston]

Originally Posted by mgteich

You say that we will get one of these.

1) Is this then your Round 1 Board?

Yup. I should have specified. Value Groupings for all seven rounds would take me... well, a long time to pull together.

Originally Posted by mgteich

2) I presume some we would have to trade up for; some we would trade down for.

Undoubtedly. The Value Grouping strategy is based on the fact that you set equally ranked players into a single group. The first player in that group to be drafted sets the "fair value" for that group. The idea is to wait until the group only has one player left, and then trade into that position to cash in on optimal value.

Group 1 is clearly out of reach for us. I put it up there only to set my Top-5 list, in case Houston panics.

Group 2 will start losing players in the Top-10, but a few may drop into the teens. If four out of the five in this group are off the board by #12, then we would need to trade up to #13 to get best value, according to the way I stacked this board.

I've posted my mock draft where we do exactly that-- we trade up to #13 for Carpenter. I think most Pats Fans would probably put Carpenter into Group 3, which would mean Group 2 is pretty much a top-10 bunching: if the Lions take Michael Huff at #9, we'd have to target Greenway as high as #10. Honestly, that would put this Group pretty much out of reach, unless Greenway just kept falling.

Group 3 will start losing players in the teens, but will probably last into the late-20s/early-30s. As I've stacked this board, I would expect a trade down from #21 to #28-30 range, and we'd probably get either Kiwanuka or Marshall. So, again, by my ratings we'd be getting top-20 talent at (let's say) #30.

Again, critics will say Marshall belongs in Group 4 or Group 5... and honestly, they may be right. Marshall is a bit green to be in this company.

Group 4 may start as early as the teens, and will last into the 2nd round. Given the spread of that grouping, the last player in the group taken will be an absolute bargain. Again, this is because we have him rated equal to a guy who went in the teens, so we're getting fantastic value. Trouble is, it's kinda hard to trade into the #33, #34, #35 spots, where we'd probably want to be for this group. The Baltimore/San Fran trade actually put Balitimore in ideal position for this Group. For the Pats, a big trade up from #52 is not completely out of the question.

Group 5 will have one or two first rounders, but the group should last all the way to #52, or thereabouts. So, really, we could get two of the players on this board.

Originally Posted by mgteich

3) I'm somewhat confused by your categories. Are there really no other receivers that could be sophomore starters. I may be nitpicking on label. Group 4 looks like players I would trade down for in the 1st and Group 3 who I would expect to get at 21. I understand we thane would need to move depending on how the draft goes. Are Group 5 expected to there in the top of the second?

Yup. We can get a Group 3 player at #21, but the value would be in trading down a bit until that Group thins out.

Group 4... you have it right.

Group 5, like I said, will tail off through the second round. Group 5 might be a good group to work with to strategize a trade up from #52, to draft the last guy remaining out of the group.

So, if BB manages to get a player from Group 3 and a player from Group 5 (trade down from #21 and up from #52-- Whitner and McIntosh), I think that is very achievable.

More aggressive would be two players from Group 4 (way down from #21, but way up from #52--> Howard and Addai).

Last option would be to trade up into Group 2 (Greenway, perhaps), but then our appetite to trade up into Group 5 becomes less-- we still want to have some picks in the mid-rounds.

If we sit still and take the BPA, the best we could do is something like Lawson or Wimbley at #21, and probably that's all we'd get off this board.

[dryheat44]

Very, very nicely done.

[Brady'sButtBoy]

What's the obsession with Carpenter? He's a solid player that surely benefitted from having a ton of talent around him, starting with AJ Hawk. I only saw him play three times but I do remember him making some 'plays' in two of the games so I'm not saying he was purely a product of the OHSU defensive system.

Hawk has the makings of a star, while Carpenter will likely be a starter but not any kind of dominator. The first round is all about getting the super-studs, players with the grades, talent, and attitude that clearly set them apart from the rest of the group. If you look at Carpenter this way, he just doesn't measure up.

The argument could easily be made that there will not be ANY player at 21 who fits my description of what the first round is all about. In fact, that is what I expect and is why I feel trading down 5-8 spots in exchange for a future second rounder would be a very shrewd move since we'd still get a player of a virtually identical grade at the lower spot while positioning ourselves very well for the future - again.

With the Giants, Bears, Panthers at 25, 26, 27, we have three potential trades all out of our conference making a swap easier for both teams. If you buy the hype that the G-Men want a LB (Carpenter?) and the Carolina wants a certain RB and that the Bears want to enhance their offense, well, you can come up with a number of trade scenarios. All this would have been especially true if Lendale "White Castle," hadn't decided to eat half of the state of California for Christmas dinner and maybe fall out of the first round.

[mgteich]

Thanks for the clarifications; but I think from your comments that this is really a 2-round board, and perhaps with a bit of addition at the end, we couuld use it through the first pick in the third.

Originally Posted by rookBoston

Yup. I should have specified. Value Groupings for all seven rounds would take me... well, a long time to pull together.


Undoubtedly. The Value Grouping strategy is based on the fact that you set equally ranked players into a single group. The first player in that group to be drafted sets the "fair value" for that group. The idea is to wait until the group only has one player left, and then trade into that position to cash in on optimal value.

Group 1 is clearly out of reach for us. I put it up there only to set my Top-5 list, in case Houston panics.

Group 2 will start losing players in the Top-10, but a few may drop into the teens. If four out of the five in this group are off the board by #12, then we would need to trade up to #13 to get best value, according to the way I stacked this board.

I've posted my mock draft where we do exactly that-- we trade up to #13 for Carpenter. I think most Pats Fans would probably put Carpenter into Group 3, which would mean Group 2 is pretty much a top-10 bunching: if the Lions take Michael Huff at #9, we'd have to target Greenway as high as #10. Honestly, that would put this Group pretty much out of reach, unless Greenway just kept falling.

Group 3 will start losing players in the teens, but will probably last into the late-20s/early-30s. As I've stacked this board, I would expect a trade down from #21 to #28-30 range, and we'd probably get either Kiwanuka or Marshall. So, again, by my ratings we'd be getting top-20 talent at (let's say) #30.

Again, critics will say Marshall belongs in Group 4 or Group 5... and honestly, they may be right. Marshall is a bit green to be in this company.

Group 4 may start as early as the teens, and will last into the 2nd round. Given the spread of that grouping, the last player in the group taken will be an absolute bargain. Again, this is because we have him rated equal to a guy who went in the teens, so we're getting fantastic value. Trouble is, it's kinda hard to trade into the #33, #34, #35 spots, where we'd probably want to be for this group. The Baltimore/San Fran trade actually put Balitimore in ideal position for this Group. For the Pats, a big trade up from #52 is not completely out of the question.

Group 5 will have one or two first rounders, but the group should last all the way to #52, or thereabouts. So, really, we could get two of the players on this board.



Yup. We can get a Group 3 player at #21, but the value would be in trading down a bit until that Group thins out.

Group 4... you have it right.

Group 5, like I said, will tail off through the second round. Group 5 might be a good group to work with to strategize a trade up from #52, to draft the last guy remaining out of the group.

So, if BB manages to get a player from Group 3 and a player from Group 5 (trade down from #21 and up from #52-- Whitner and McIntosh), I think that is very achievable.

More aggressive would be two players from Group 4 (way down from #21, but way up from #52--> Howard and Addai).

Last option would be to trade up into Group 2 (Greenway, perhaps), but then our appetite to trade up into Group 5 becomes less-- we still want to have some picks in the mid-rounds.

If we sit still and take the BPA, the best we could do is something like Lawson or Wimbley at #21, and probably that's all we'd get off this board.