08-24-2009, 07:32 AM
In the Starting Line-up
Join Date: Feb 2008
Location: Jacksonville, FL
So I had my leagues draft last night. And I drafted 100% based on my own formula and need chart I created in Excel.
I want to pass my idea by everyone, and my results to see what you think. First off, I drafted 3rd, league is pretty standard, score is tweaked to give QBs a little more value, RBs a little less.
My Draft Class ( Just the Starters ):
Round 1: WR Larry Fitzgerald
Round 2: WR Calvin Johnson
Round 3: RB Marion Barber
Round 4: RB Ryan Grant
Round 5: QB Matt Schaub
Round 6: RB Willie Parker
Round 7: TE John Carlson
Defense: Green Bay
Kicker: John Carney
How I drafted:
First I would say, drafting 3rd, I went after Fitz too early. However my formula told me he was the highest value player left after the first two players were drafted.
My Valuation board went like, based on Yahoo stat predictions, I applied our scoring to the base stats NOT including INTs, or Fumbles, just thier base stats.
I then sort all players at a position against their total predicted value, then with Excel I determine the Percentage difference from the currently top rated WR frmt he second rated WR telling me how much of a drop it is from 1 to 2 of available players.
Then using this percentage ranking, which was always changing depending on who was drafted ahead I drafted whatever player had the highest differential percentage. Taking into account need, At one point the highest differential was Ray Rice, but I already had 4 RBs. This game in real handy in the early rounds, as well as late rounds when I stopped caring...
I DID however reach for Ryan Grant, as I think he's going to have a GOOD year, my Sheet told me I reached up 8 RBs to get him, but I had to mix in some gut with numbers.
My Formula prevented me from reaching for a QB too soon, as the values were never there, yet everyone was drafting them... it made me nervous, but in the end I got my targeted Schuab, 2 rounds later than when I started thinking about it.
Overall, what do you think of my idea, and the result? The formula, I think is money, I have a SOLID team, I already have the highest projected scoring team week1, my backups are even solid... It really created a strategy to get the higest value player on the board every pick. I knew I was getting a player in which the next player had a major drop in value...