Originally Posted by manxman2601
I'm projecting when I say he's a first rounder. Remember when Michael Brockers declared, virtually every team in the NFL had him in for a visit. I can see the same with Ansah and someone will probably fall in love with him. Of course, he could have a poor Senior/Shrine bowl or fail to live up to expectations at the combine (or get a serious injury God forbid) but his current path leads me to believe he'll be a first rounder and very possibly a high one.
A high 1st round pick is possible, but a long way off. There's a numbers game to be played, and as a 4-3 DE Ansah would have to leap frog a lot of other guys to be a top 10-15 pick. Sam Montgomery, Bjoern Werner. Guys from bigger name schools with more experience, better stats and more tape. It's possible - it only takes 1 team falling in love with a prospect - but it's an uphill climb. But by no means out of the question.
Looking at some of the "fast risers" on defense who have seemingly emerged from nowhere in 1 year prior to the draft:
2009: Connor Barwin. TE convert to DE who led the Big East with 12 sacks and 16 TFL, had great intangibles and off the charts measurables. Originally called a 3rd round pick, bumped up to the 2nd round and was considered a possible 1st round pick by some after blowing away the Combine and he Pro Day, before eventually going to Houston at #46 overall.
2010: Jason Pierre-Paul. The Haitian Sensation was a JUCO transfer who emerged from the shadow of George Selvie. Had 16.5 TFL and 6.5 sacks for USF as a junior before declaring. Taken #15 overall by the Giants.
2011: JJ Watt. Another TE convert to DE. Exploded his senior year with 21 TFL. Lott Trophy award winner, 1st team All Big 10 and 2nd Team All American. Team MVP. Taken #11 overall by Houston.
2012: Dontari Poe. Limited production for Memphis, but ideal size and freakish athleticism. Taken #11 overall by Kansas City.
2012: Chandler Jones. Hampered by injuries. Showed flashes of production, but didn't post eye-popping stats. Projected initially as a 2nd round pick when he declared as a junior, was a fast riser projected by some as a possible top 15 pick prior to the draft. Taken #21 overall by the Patriots.
4 of those 5 guys were 1st round picks. 3 were top 15 picks. Watt, Pierre-Paul and Barwin all produced at a very high level against strong competition. Poe had the least production against the weakest competition and the most developmental time, and has shown the slowest development, though his position is one that often takes time to develop.
Ansah is very raw, but if he continues to produce I think he will almost certainly be a top 50 pick, and most likely intrigue someone enough to be a top 40 or late 1st round pick. Beyond that right now is too hard to project, but his physical talent level is certainly off the charts.
If I had to guess right now I'd say there's about a 20% chance he goes top 20, a 50% chance he goes 20-50, a 20% chance he goes 50-100, and a 10% chance he goes lower than that (either because of inconcsistency, poor meaurables, a red flag, or mostly likely injury). But it's pure guesswork.