The 2013 Prospect Thread

[mayoclinic]

Originally Posted by Snake Eyes

I just watched an interview with Hunt, after watching him life weights and throw a shotput I'm all over this guy.

He understands technique/mechanics/alignment. I used to throw shotput/discus and know how there's a ton of small mechanical movements that go into what seems like a big movement, and it can be very demanding, mentally and physically, to spend the necessary effort into mastering them, Hunt's movements are beautiful. If he can master those field events he should have no problem developing magnificent football moves if given high level coaching and a full-time focus on it.

Hunt seems to have excellent linear speed. JJ Watt took some time to develop his movement skills, and was much better moving front/back than laterally his junior year at Wisconsin, but improved noticeably over the course of the season. I think Hunt is strong enough to play inside (he played NT at times for SMU last year) and agile enough to stand up at times, making him very appealing as a LDE counterpart to Chandler Jones, with Jake Bequette sort of in-between the two in terms of style and hopefully able to back up both.

Lotulelei and Hankins are both studs. And I love Barkevious Mingo. All will likely be top 20 picks, if not higher. But I think that Jesse Williams, Margus Hunt and Dion Jordan are just as intriguing.

This time last year Quinton Coples was a projected top 5 pick and Chandler Jones was an unknown.

[mayoclinic]

Originally Posted by NinjaZX6R

I see him more of a 43 LDE/ 43 under LDE.

Maybe, though he's still a bit undersized.

Mackenzie Pantoja on Simon:

Positives:

+Character
+Strength (relative too size)
+Hand usage
+Fundamentals
+Instincts

Negatives:

-Too short for defensive end at 6’1, not athletic enough for linebacker
-Lacks quickness
-Below average football speed
-Tight hips
-Poor athlete
-No length

I wanted to like Ohio State defensive end John Simon. I really did. What can a guy dislike about a guy who was recently banned from entering the Woody Hayes Athletic Center by himself because he lifts weights too much? Meyer wants players to learn from Simon, plus I’m sure he wants his players to make sure Simon doesn’t work out until he dies. I can’t help but love his character. But, at the same time, what is there to like about an undersized defensive end who isn’t very athletic and has no quickness?

Simon has mediocre measurables. My big red flag for him is his height. Unless your name is Dwight Freeney, you can’t cut it at defensive end in the NFL at Simon’s height of 6’1. His length isn’t very impressive either. However, he has solid bulk at 270lbs, and he has above average speed with a 4.76 40 yard dash.
Simon has solid stats. In 2011, he got 53 tackles, 16.0 TFL’s, and 7.0 sacks, to go along with a respectable 3 pass breakups. In 2010, he got 41 tackles, 8.5 TFL’s, and 3 sacks. His stats aren’t poor, but they aren’t really mind blowing either.

I don’t think Simon profiles too well as a pass rusher. I don’t think he has the size and length necessary to play 4-3 end at the NFL level. Yet, at the same time, I don’t think he has the athleticism to play 3-4 outside linebacker at the NFL level. As a pass rusher, Simon tries to rely on pass rush moves and strength, but, considering his lack of length, I don’t think he’ll be able to get with his hand usage and strength at the NFL level. Much of hand usage is moving the arms of the O-lineman to get in good position to shed the block. However, Simon has very short arms, and the higher he rises, the longer the arms of the linemen he faces will get. Offensive tackles with even the smallest amount of length will get their hands on his chest and drive him off the ball on pass plays, knowing his arms are too short for him to even touch their chest and try to get off the block. People will naturally suggest that he tries to find other ways to get to the quarterback. But Simon has no quickness whatsoever, and his hips are extremely tight, so he has virtually no chance of ever being able to use methods like the speed rush with any kind of success. The bull rush won’t work either because, even though he has tremendous strength, his short arms make it nearly impossible for him to even touch O-linemen and move them backwards at the NFL level. I don’t see how Simon profiles as a pass rusher at the next level.

I mentioned that I don’t think Simon has the length for 4-3 end at the next level. So what about 3-4 outside linebacker? More red flags. He is too short for strongside outside linebacker (they need to cover tight ends), and he is way too bulky to play 3-4 weakside outside linebacker. Even if he lost 20lbs and played 3-4 weakside outside linebacker, he still would probably be a nightmare in coverage, thanks to his tight hips, lack of change of direction skills, and lack of lateral range. I don’t think Simon has a chance in coverage, plus he lacks range, so I don’t see him being a 3-4 outside linebacker in the NFL.

Simon is mediocre against the run. He has incredibly tight hips, which make him a mediocre tackler (easy to juke out), and he doesn’t get great leverage against the run, and he has almost no range whatsoever. However, if he can get his short arms around a ball carrier, he is an excellent tackler, simply because he has phenomenal strength and he uses ideal tackling fundamentals. Although he has good instincts, he doesn’t look very fast on film, and his lack of short area speed makes him mediocre in pursuit. Plus, I don’t think it would be crazy to say he doesn’t even have enough range for defensive end at the NFL level.

Simon has awesome intangibles. As mentioned in the first paragraph, he was recently banned by Urban Meyer from entering the weight room alone since he lifts so many weights. His work in the weight room really plays dividends (benches 225lbs 48 times, completely unheard for a guy his size). I honestly can’t say I know everything about his character, because I don’t know him, but the way his coaches rave about him is a good sign for his character, and he plays with excellent on field intensity. I love Simon’s character.

The one position I think Simon has a chance to play in the NFL is defensive tackle. He’ll need to bulk up, but his length isn’t going to be as much of an issue at defensive tackle because offensive guards tend to have less length than offensive tackles, plus defensive tackles don’t need as much range as defensive ends. He profiles pretty well against the run as a defensive tackle, considering his solid strength and instincts. However, it’s all in theory. He still will need to add about 30lbs, plus it isn’t easy to learn a new position.

Honestly, I don’t think Simon is going to be a great player in the NFL. I love his intangibles and strength, but I can’t get over the fact that there aren’t many undersized defensive ends who aren’t very athletic and have no quickness that have ever had success at the NFL level. And I don’t see Simon being very successful either.

NFL Comparison: Brandon Graham with more strength.
Grade: 70 (worthy of a late third to early fourth round pick)
Projection: 87 (will be an early second round pick)

John Simon- 2013 NFL Draft Scouting Report - NFL Mocks - 2013 NFL Mock Draft, Fantasy Football, NFL News, and NFL Mock Draft Databases

I pretty much agree with Pantoja's assessment. I love Simon's intangibles and work ethic, but I just don't see a great fit in the NFL, especially for the Pats. The combination of lack of height, short arms, tight hips and limited range of motion just seems like too much to overcome to be an impact player at the next level.

[mayoclinic]

Major sleeper alert for OTG!!! In contrast to his report on John Simon, here's Mackenzie Pantoja on Missouri Western St. DE David Bass:

Positives:

+Can do anything on pass plays
+Versatile
+Great pass rusher
+Terrific in coverage
+Can deflect passes at the line of scrimmage
+Terrific length
+Very loose hips
+Uses his hands effectively
+Incredible on field awareness against the pass
+Reacts quickly
+Good in pursuit
+Pretty quick
+Good at disengaging from blocks

Negatives:

-Horrible competition (he plays for Missouri Western State)
-Poor strength
-Mediocre instincts against the run
-Can’t get good leverage

Missouri Western State defensive end David Bass is nothing short of incredible. He has the potential to be phenomenal in the NFL. But I want to start off by admitting I’ve only seen him play one time. The guy plays for Missouri Western State. It’s a miracle that I was able to get any game film on him at all. But, for whatever reason, last week, Fox College Sports Central showed a rerun of last years Missouri Western State vs. Central Missouri game, and I was able to scout him. I don’t like evaluating a guy based on his performance in one game, but I make exceptions for non-FBS prospects, because I am lucky to get one game of film on those guys. And, in that one game, David Bass looked absolutely terrific.

Bass has excellent measurables. He has been listed as tall as 6’5 and as short as 6’3, but, watching him on film, I’m inclined to believe he is closer to 6’5 or maybe even 6’6. He has above average bulk for a 4-3 end at 275lbs and excellent speed, running a 4.76 forty according to nfldraftscout, my personal favorite reference for 40 yard dash times. He also has excellent length.
Bass has excellent stats. In 2011, he had 55 tackles, 14.5 sacks, 20 TFL’s, and 4 pass breakups (terrific for a defensive end). In 2010, he had 47 tackles, 8.0 sacks, 10.5 TFL’s, 4 pass breakups and 2 interceptions. Again, pass deflection numbers were quite impressive. Overall, Bass has excellent numbers.
Bass is nothing short of terrific on anything that has to do with pass plays. I can’t emphasize this enough; I have never before scouted a player who is tremendous at so many different things needed to stop the pass. The amount of ways he can be used on pass plays is nothing short of unbelievable, but I’ll try to go over the things he can do against the pass one thing at a time, starting with coverage. Bass is truly spectacular in coverage. I’m not sure if I could design a player better suited to cover the NFL’s new breed of “super tight ends” (Gronk, Graham, etc.) than Bass. He has tremendous height at 6’5, and incredibly long arms relative to size, and unbelievably loose hips that allow him to change directions with ease. But it doesn’t stop there; in the game against Central Missouri, Bass made a play that I will never forget. He line up in a 3 point stance, and, as soon as the ball was snapped, he dropped back into man coverage chasing down a slot receiver. The receiver was running a go route. First off, finding a defensive end who can get out of a 3 point stance and then immediately stay stride for stride with a slot receiver on a go route is nearly impossible, even at the DII level. But it gets better. Bass was watching the eyes of the receiver as he was covering him, he saw the receiver look up, and he immediately turned his head looking for the ball, and he deflected the pass. I’ve never seen a defensive end that has the instincts to read the eyes of the receiver and then turn his head and deflect passes. I couldn’t believe it. Again, Bass has incredibly loose hips and can change directions with ease, which will translate to success in coverage at the NFL (making 3-4 outside linebacker a definite possibility). His long arms also help him deflect passes. Bass can do anything in coverage.

I doubt I will ever see a defensive lineman who can deflect passes at the line of scrimmage as well as Bass. On any given pass play in which Bass is blitzing, he uses a simple process in an effort to find the best way to disrupt the play. Before even attempting to shed a block and get to the quarterback, he reads the quarterback’s drop. If he sees the quarterback do a 3 step drop, he doesn’t even attempt to pressure him. He immediately puts himself into position to deflect the pass, using his incredibly long and quick arms. If the pass is to the outside and to his side of the field, more often than not he will deflect the pass. In the game, he deflected 3 passes, 2 of which were tipped high into the air and ended up being interceptions. I couldn’t believe it. Bass showcased amazing awareness to consistently read the drop of the quarterback and always try to deflect passes using his ridiculously long arms rather than rushing the quarterback if he sees a 3 step drop. Absolutely brilliant.

Bass has amazing awareness of the pass. Bass’s pass rushing techniques (namely good hand usage, see next paragraph) din’t really rely on getting good leverage against the O-lineman, meaning he doesn’t necessarily have to stay low and get good leverage to pressure the quarterback. As a result, his excellent height usually means that he can see above the head of the offensive lineman, so he always knows where the quarterback is, he knows the best route of pursuit to get to him, and he does a great job of disengaging from blocks if he sees the quarterback roll out or try to scramble up the middle. Always knowing where the quarterback is and being able to read the quarterback’s eyes while rushing him is a great asset for Bass, and it will only help him in the NFL.

Bass is an excellent pass rusher. I have always been addicted to guys who know how to use their hands to shed off blocks (I had Aldon Smith as a top 5 pick). Why? Because good hand usage is the only way to create pressure against any and all linemen. What I mean by that is that the bull rush is very rarely effective against offensive tackles and there isn’t enough room to create pressure from the inside using the speed rush. However, a good swim/rip move can beat guards and tackles alike, giving defensive coordinators the freedom to use crazy defensive line stunts and unusual alignments to create pressure. For example, Dwight Freeney is never going to create pressure through the interior of any offensive line. But guys like Aldon Smith and Bass can be used in all sorts of defensive line stunts and create pressure from anywhere they want. Plus, good hand usage can completely take the strength and athleticism of an offensive lineman out of the equation. The only way to beat good hand usage (namely against guys with long arms) is to use excellent fundamentals and have long arms. Regardless, Bass is an amazing pass rusher thanks to his hand usage. His quickness is mediocre, but he uses a variety of pass rush moves, and his arms are so long that it is tough to even touch his chest before he can use a pass rush move. However, most pass rush moves involve moving the arm of an offensive linemen, and he may need to add strength for him to be able to consistently do that at the NFL level. Regardless, Bass’ pass rush moves give him lots of potential at the NFL level.

Bass doesn’t look to be as terrific against the run. I must start out by saying that my sample size of Bass vs. the run is extremely small, considering Central Missouri only ran the ball 13 times in the game, only 5 times to the weakside, and, on one of those 5 plays, Bass wasn’t on the field, so I’m only looking at a sample size of about 4 plays. In those 4 plays, he showed that he has above average range (3-4 outside linebacker?), he is very good at disengaging from blocks, he is solid in pursuit, but his strength is far below average, his instincts are average at best, and he struggles to get good leverage against the run. He is a perfect tackler though, thanks to his long arms, loose hips (can’t juke him out), and excellent fundamentals. Again, it was 4 plays, but he will need to add strength to play 4-3 end in the NFL, and it would still be tough for him to play 3-4 outside linebacker if he didn’t add some strength.

Ultimately, Bass looks like an amazing prospect. Bass looks like an extremely versatile prospect, but his abilities against the pass make it tough to choose a position for him, since, one way or another, no matter what position you put him at, some of his abilities will go to wa[ste]. The amount of things he does against the pass (create pressure, deflect passes, cover guys from slot receivers to tight ends) is nothing short of amazing, and I think he may have a future in the NFL.

NFL Comparison: Not an easy comparison, but I guess Greg Hardy, except I have no reason to believe that Bass has bad character.

Grade: 85 (worthy of a mid second round pick)
Projection: 55 (will be a mid fifth round pick)

David Bass- 2013 NFL Draft Scouting Report - NFL Mocks - 2013 NFL Mock Draft, Fantasy Football, NFL News, and NFL Mock Draft Databases

It's obviously only one report based on very limited film, but it's intriguing. A 6'5" 275#+ guy with long arms and loose hips, good speed and instincts, the ability to drop into coverage from a 3 point stance and well as move inside and pass rush, and enough athleticism to stand up. That would be a terrific hybrid 4-3 LDE / 3-4 DE / 4-3 UT / 3-4 OLB kind of prospect. It sounds like his edge setting may need some work and he needs to get stronger, but again, it's based on limted film. Defintely a sleeper to keep an eye on, particularly if Pantoja is right in his assessment of Bass' coverage abilities. A LDE with that kind of range and coverage ability would be a huge asset given the evolving nature of NFL offenses.

[mayoclinic]

Some interesting Sun Belt prospects highlighted by NE Patriots' Draft:

Seniors:

Josh Jarboe, WR, Arkansas St. Oklahoma transfer, stands 6’3″ 217 pounds. Plenty of athleticism to make it at the next level. Had 54 catches for 730 yards and 2 touchdowns. Those numbers should go up big time, as he becomes the number one WR in the Red Wolves offense.

Melvin White, CB/FS, Louisiana-Lafayette. White has a big frame (6’1″ / 192) and some versatility, as he can also play some corner as well as safety. He can also contribute on special teams. White led him team with 8.5 tackles for a loss and had two picks last year.

2013 NFL Draft: Top Senior Prospects in the Sun Belt | NEPatriotsDraft.com - 2013 NFL Draft

Juniors:

Sean Conway, OC, Western Kentucky/ With ideal size, length, and upper body force off the snap, Conway has shown some NFL potential so far in his career, not always easy for a center, especially at a lower level. He drives well with his lower body initially and delivers a pop well, especially against sub-320 pound 3-techniques/nose tackles. Only allowing four sacks all year last year and managing a young group, his value to the offense may be great than quarterback Kawaun Jakes this season thanks to his protection ability and aiding in his other lineman on their reads.

2013 NFL Draft: Top Sun Belt Junior Prospects | Miami Dolphins Draft - 2013 NFL Draft

[Off The Grid]

Originally Posted by mayoclinic

Major sleeper alert for OTG!!! In contrast to his report on John Simon, here's Mackenzie Pantoja on Missouri Western St. DE David Bass:



David Bass- 2013 NFL Draft Scouting Report - NFL Mocks - 2013 NFL Mock Draft, Fantasy Football, NFL News, and NFL Mock Draft Databases

It's obviously only one report based on very limited film, but it's intriguing. A 6'5" 275#+ guy with long arms and loose hips, good speed and instincts, the ability to drop into coverage from a 3 point stance and well as move inside and pass rush, and enough athleticism to stand up. That would be a terrific hybrid 4-3 LDE / 3-4 DE / 4-3 UT / 3-4 OLB kind of prospect. It sounds like his edge setting may need some work and he needs to get stronger, but again, it's based on limted film. Defintely a sleeper to keep an eye on, particularly if Pantoja is right in his assessment of Bass' coverage abilities. A LDE with that kind of range and coverage ability would be a huge asset given the evolving nature of NFL offenses.

WOW.

As you say, Brother Mayo, it's just a glimpse into one segment of his Body of Work, through another Analyst's eyes...But my GOD. If he does indeed turn out to command what seems to be an insane, nearly impossible fusion of Pass Rush Prowess, Passing Lane Disruption, and utterly ludicrous Verticity for a man of his size, combined with the rapid, rabid Processing Speed that Brother Pantoja believes he boasts...his Impact on this Great Game could be revolutionary.

Magnificent Find, Brother Mayo, Scholar + Super Scout!!

[mayoclinic]

Originally Posted by Off The Grid

WOW.

As you say, Brother Mayo, it's just a glimpse into one segment of his Body of Work, through another Analyst's eyes...But my GOD. If he does indeed turn out to command what seems to be an insane, nearly impossible fusion of Pass Rush Prowess, Passing Lane Disruption, and utterly ludicrous Verticity for a man of his size, combined with the rapid, rabid Processing Speed that Brother Pantoja believes he boasts...his Impact on this Great Game could be revolutionary.

Magnificent Find, Brother Mayo, Scholar + Super Scout!!

It's hard not to get a little giddy about that scouting report, especially coming from Pantoja, who is a guy who looks at film directly and doesn't just follow what other guys say. As you note, Pantoja's report describes an incredible combination of physical tools (size, length, long arms, speed, loose hips, movement skills (especially lateral agility and verticity), technique (hand usage, coverage skills, ability to track the ball, rush moves), processing capability (instincts, processing speed, ability to read the quarterback), motor and intangibles. It sounds too good to be true - and odds are, it probably is - but it certainly warrants close watching.

Coming from an FCS school, even if this kid is the real deal he may take time to develop. Guys like Jared Allen and James Harrison certainly had the talent, but took time. But the Pats have enough depth and breadth to afford that. Imagine what combining this kind of kid with a guy like Dion Jordan would do in terms of coverage ability and versatility in the passing game. Unreal.

[mayoclinic]

Originally Posted by Off The Grid

WOW.

As you say, Brother Mayo, it's just a glimpse into one segment of his Body of Work, through another Analyst's eyes...But my GOD. If he does indeed turn out to command what seems to be an insane, nearly impossible fusion of Pass Rush Prowess, Passing Lane Disruption, and utterly ludicrous Verticity for a man of his size, combined with the rapid, rabid Processing Speed that Brother Pantoja believes he boasts...his Impact on this Great Game could be revolutionary.

Magnificent Find, Brother Mayo, Scholar + Super Scout!!

Some more information on David Bass:

1. He's listed at 6'5" 275# on the team website.
2. He had 55 tackles (35 solo) in 2011 including 20 TFL and 14.5 sacks, 4 PD and 1 FF. He was selected to numerous small school All American lists. In 2010 he had 47 tackles (29 solo) with 10.5 TFL, 8 sacks, 4 PD and 2 INTs. He's started 36 games over 3 years.
3. He was a high school football, basketball and track star and played TE as well as DE. The TE and basketball and track background may explain some of his movement skills.
4. He's a criminal justice major who wants to be a CSI detective outside of football. Sounds squeaky clean.

Sounds intriguing.

[mayoclinic]

Walter Football's Charlie Campbell profiles USC OG/C Khaled Holmes:

Skill-Set Summary: There is a lot for NFL teams to like about Holmes. He is a perfect candidate to protect the pocket for a signal-caller in the passing-driven NFL. Holmes' mobility and pass-protection skills are exactly what the NFL is looking for. He can move quickly to get in position to pick up blitzers but also has the skills to fire out of stance and double-team defensive tackles with guards.

Holmes has nice awareness to pick up pass-rushers. It would be helpful if he added more strength and power to his base for the next level. That would help him anchor against zero-technique defensive tackles who line up directly over the center. With some of the heavy and powerful 3-4 nose tackles in the NFL, Holmes ability to stonewall their bull-rushes could be challenged. The redshirt senior should have the height to add some extra bulk to handle the big tackles.

Holmes is quick to the next level of the defense as a run-blocker. He hits blocks on linebackers to help spring his backs for more yardage. Holmes also combo-blocks well with his guards. In the NFL, he would be best as a zone-blocker who can use his speed and athleticism. If Holmes is drafted into a power scheme, he definitely should fill out his frame with another 10-15 pounds.

Centers are a critical position in the NFL for interior pass-protection. Holmes looks like a future NFL starter, and teams that are heavy on passing the ball will like what they see with from the Trojans center.

2013 Draft Expectations: Holmes looks like a second-round pick entering his senior season. He hasn't really been dominant enough to push for late first-round consideration. If Holmes is inconsistent in 2012, he could slide into the mid-rounds.

WalterFootball.com: 2013 NFL Draft Scouting Report: Khaled Holmes

Holmes is my 2nd rated OG/C prospect after Barrett Jones.

[Merril Hoge's Tie Knot]

Where Does Tyrann Mathieu fit in the NFL?

History aside, what’s the bottom line on Mathieu? He’s explosive in every way possible. Prospective NFL teams are going to see a chess piece, someone they can move around in the secondary, and a player they can rely on to provide a massive spark in the return game. He’s an elite blitzer from the secondary, a trait all the best defensive backs share. His ability to line up in the slot, while playing strong against the run is a skill that NFL teams covet more than ever as the league becomes more wide open. May it be on a strip, an interception, or a punt return, Mathieu is a threat to light up the scoreboard. He’s the player coaches hate to game plan against. As for his draft stock, who knows at this point but if the NFL draft were today, I’m picking him and I’m really happy about it.

Where Does Tyrann Mathieu fit in the NFL? | NFL Draft Hub

[mayoclinic]

Originally Posted by Merril Hoge's Tie Knot

Where Does Tyrann Mathieu fit in the NFL?

Where Does Tyrann Mathieu fit in the NFL? | NFL Draft Hub

That's a nice summary, and I like the "chess piece" analogy. Mathieu doesn't particularly fit one place, but if you move him around he's a definite weapon. He's certainly on my short list of intriguing guys to consider depending on where he falls and who else is available.