The 2013 Prospect Thread

[Merril Hoge's Tie Knot]

Originally Posted by Snake Eyes

You like him better than Keenan Allen? I'm thinking that we're good on short and shifty guys, and could use a taller stronger player who would likely do better against tough press coverage.

This is how I feel too.

Don't get it wrong though, Austin is more than just a short and shifty guy. However he doesn't do well against press coverage, which has bothered the Pats for a while.

I really like DaRick Rogers. There is too much value there. I don't think he's a bad person. He reminds of Justin Blackmon but a little taller. That's not to say I think he's worthy of a top five pick like Blackmon. I didn't think even Blackmon was worth a top 5 pick.

[mayoclinic]

Originally Posted by Snake Eyes

You like him better than Keenan Allen? I'm thinking that we're good on short and shifty guys, and could use a taller stronger player who would likely do better against tough press coverage.

Originally Posted by Merril Hoge's Tie Knot

This is how I feel too.

Don't get it wrong though, Austin is more than just a short and shifty guy. However he doesn't do well against press coverage, which has bothered the Pats for a while.

I really like DaRick Rogers. There too much value there. I don't think he's a bad person. He reminds of Justin Blackmon but a little taller. That's not to say I think he's worthy of a top five pick like Blackmon. I didn't think even Blackmon was worth a top 5 pick.

I don't think any WR is worth a top 5 pick, and in general I avoid WRs in the 1st round like the plague. It's just not a position I value highly enough to spend a 1st round pick on, and I feel you can get high quality receivers later on.

Until recently I would have agreed with you and favored bigger, stronger, more physical WRs who could deal with press coverage and were able to block as well. Julio Jones would probably have been my ideal, not that I would use the #6 pick on a WR.

As I've discussed with OTG, and as I discussed briefly in the "Blueprint" thread, with the movement towards the TE-based offense and the integration of the power running game combined with the "Oregonization" of the offense into a more up-tempo approach, I see more of an opportunity for versatile, elusive "flex backs" and receivers who can be moved around to create mismatches, who can create separation in very small windows and accelerate very quickly, and who have the potential to create home run plays at any time. Jeff Demps has that potential, though he's incredibly raw, and he flashed a few glimpses of that in training camp. Percy Harvin is probably the prototype. DeSean Jackson. Randall Cobb. Guys like Tavon Austin and De'Anthony Thomas in college. I think that there's more opportunity to free up those kind of guys when you're playing an up tempo offense and when you have the TEs and the power running game mixed in, and with TEs who can get downfield there's less of a need for big, physical WRs. JMHO. In general, I prefer bigger WRs, but with our offense I think that smaller, quicker guys could present tremendous matchup problems for opposing defenses. Try to match up with the speedsters and we run it down their throats or run over them with the TEs. Try to go big and all it takes is a step for a guy like Austin to be off to the end zone.

Originally Posted by Snake Eyes

Also, what do you think of Andre Roberts? He's quietly becoming an important piece of the AZ offense, I'm wondering if they'll have the money to resign him at the end of next season.

I like Roberts. He's similar in size, measurables and style to Randall Cobb, who is one of my favorites. He's a good PR, and has excellent speed and agility (4.40 40, 6.77 3-cone). He's had decent productivity for Arizona despite not having much in the way of QBs. He's not a FA until 2014, so it's too far off to evaluate what his chances are of hitting the open market or what his projected value would be, but he's a nice player.

[manxman2601]

Originally Posted by mayoclinic

I don't think any WR is worth a top 5 pick, and in general I avoid WRs in the 1st round like the plague. It's just not a position I value highly enough to spend a 1st round pick on, and I feel you can get high quality receivers later on.

Until recently I would have agreed with you and favored bigger, stronger, more physical WRs who could deal with press coverage and were able to block as well. Julio Jones would probably have been my ideal, not that I would use the #6 pick on a WR.

As I've discussed with OTG, and as I discussed briefly in the "Blueprint" thread, with the movement towards the TE-based offense and the integration of the power running game combined with the "Oregonization" of the offense into a more up-tempo approach, I see more of an opportunity for versatile, elusive "flex backs" and receivers who can be moved around to create mismatches, who can create separation in very small windows and accelerate very quickly, and who have the potential to create home run plays at any time. Jeff Demps has that potential, though he's incredibly raw, and he flashed a few glimpses of that in training camp. Percy Harvin is probably the prototype. DeSean Jackson. Randall Cobb. Guys like Tavon Austin and De'Anthony Thomas in college. I think that there's more opportunity to free up those kind of guys when you're playing an up tempo offense and when you have the TEs and the power running game mixed in, and with TEs who can get downfield there's less of a need for big, physical WRs. JMHO. In general, I prefer bigger WRs, but with our offense I think that smaller, quicker guys could present tremendous matchup problems for opposing defenses. Try to match up with the speedsters and we run it down their throats or run over them with the TEs. Try to go big and all it takes is a step for a guy like Austin to be off to the end zone.



I like Roberts. He's similar in size, measurables and style to Randall Cobb, who is one of my favorites. He's a good PR, and has excellent speed and agility (4.40 40, 6.77 3-cone). He's had decent productivity for Arizona despite not having much in the way of QBs. He's not a FA until 2014, so it's too far off to evaluate what his chances are of hitting the open market or what his projected value would be, but he's a nice player.

Really? If you knew then what you know now, would you not take Wes Welker in the 1st? He's been with us for six years. If we're talking top five, that means for him to be worth a top 5 pick, he has to be one of the best or more influential 30 players in the NFL (6x5). Is Wes Welker one of the top 30 players?

I know. He's a slot receiver. My view on the draft is that you take the best player regardless of position. If that's a slot receiver or a scat receiver like Austin, so be it - I'm not going to limit myself to certain positions in the top 5 or first round.

I've just re-read the above and I'm worried you'll think I'm being too aggressive. It's not meant to be, just interested in your philosophy here.

[Snake Eyes]

Originally Posted by manxman2601

Really? If you knew then what you know now, would you not take Wes Welker in the 1st? He's been with us for six years. If we're talking top five, that means for him to be worth a top 5 pick, he has to be one of the best or more influential 30 players in the NFL (6x5). Is Wes Welker one of the top 30 players?

I know. He's a slot receiver. My view on the draft is that you take the best player regardless of position. If that's a slot receiver or a scat receiver like Austin, so be it - I'm not going to limit myself to certain positions in the top 5 or first round.

I've just re-read the above and I'm worried you'll think I'm being too aggressive. It's not meant to be, just interested in your philosophy here.

While I cannot speak for Mayo, wouldnt you need to consider your personnel situation (strengths/weakness) and the other players available to fill those needs?

[manxman2601]

Originally Posted by Snake Eyes

While I cannot speak for Mayo, wouldnt you need to consider your personnel situation (strengths/weakness) and the other players available to fill those needs?

Of course but we're talking about in theory. Try it another way. Ignoring all those other factors, knowing what you know now, why would you not draft Welker in the first round (or top 5)?

[Merril Hoge's Tie Knot]

Originally Posted by mayoclinic

As I've discussed with OTG, and as I discussed briefly in the "Blueprint" thread, with the movement towards the TE-based offense and the integration of the power running game combined with the "Oregonization" of the offense into a more up-tempo approach, I see more of an opportunity for versatile, elusive "flex backs" and receivers who can be moved around to create mismatches, who can create separation in very small windows and accelerate very quickly, and who have the potential to create home run plays at any time. Jeff Demps has that potential, though he's incredibly raw, and he flashed a few glimpses of that in training camp. Percy Harvin is probably the prototype. DeSean Jackson. Randall Cobb. Guys like Tavon Austin and De'Anthony Thomas in college. I think that there's more opportunity to free up those kind of guys when you're playing an up tempo offense and when you have the TEs and the power running game mixed in, and with TEs who can get downfield there's less of a need for big, physical WRs. JMHO. In general, I prefer bigger WRs, but with our offense I think that smaller, quicker guys could present tremendous matchup problems for opposing defenses. Try to match up with the speedsters and we run it down their throats or run over them with the TEs. Try to go big and all it takes is a step for a guy like Austin to be off to the end zone.

That sounds great in theory, but wouldn't it still be plagued by the defenses that have for the last couple years? Press coverage, clog the middle of the field, and get pressure with four. That's pretty much how we've lost every game the last 5 years. Why would you want guys that can be pressed when a big receiver that can't be pressed can get open just as quick? Quickness isn't a better asset than size, they're equal. Size can get open just as fast as quickness because there is less separation required for a big receiver. Austin can't beat press. We saw K State line up and punch him in the mouth and he folded. The effect that a player like Rogers would have on the offense would be much greater IMO.

Also why do you keep saying two TE offense? You know as well as I do that Hernandez is in no way a TE. I don't think I've seen him line up at the Y once this season.

[Merril Hoge's Tie Knot]

Originally Posted by manxman2601

Of course but we're talking about in theory. Try it another way. Ignoring all those other factors, knowing what you know now, why would you not draft Welker in the first round (or top 5)?

Honest question: Why does it matter what anyone would do in retrospect?

[Sciz]

Originally Posted by Merril Hoge's Tie Knot

Also why do you keep saying two TE offense? You know as well as I do that Hernandez is in no way a TE. I don't think I've seen him line up at the Y once this season.

The last time I saw numbers, I believe it was roughly 30% as an outside WR, 30% as a slot WR, 30% as an actual tight end, and 10% in the backfield. So he's not a TE most of the time, but he definitely is a reasonable amount of the time.

[Merril Hoge's Tie Knot]

Originally Posted by Sciz

The last time I saw numbers, I believe it was roughly 30% as an outside WR, 30% as a slot WR, 30% as an actual tight end, and 10% in the backfield. So he's not a TE most of the time, but he definitely is a reasonable amount of the time.

That doesn't sound right to me. I would say 90% of the time he's either in the slot, as an outside receiver on the short side of the field, or somewhere as the H-back just off the offensive line. You rarely see him lined up right next to the tackle.

[Merril Hoge's Tie Knot]

If the person that recorded those numbers doesn't know what an H or wingback is, then I could see the numbers looking like that.