* Ye Olde 2013 Mock Draft Thread!! *

[mayoclinic]

Originally Posted by ZoisKing

So let's take a look at possible trade value then. New England is going to be picking 32nd next year. So they need to move up from that position how many spots to get into prime DT territory? Here are the draft positions for the 1st three DTS taken in the 1st round of the past five drafts: 2012 draft (11,12,14), 2011 draft (3,13,18), 2010 draft (2,3,10), 2009 draft (9,24,32), 2008 draft (5,7,29).

The average draft position of the 1st DT taken is 6th, the second 12th, and the third 21st. Those picks are worth 1600, 1200, and 800 respectively. So we'd need to give up 1000 points, 600 points, or 200 points in order to move up. We currently own the 32nd, 64th, 96th, 128th, and the 224th. Those picks are worth 590 points, 270 points, 116 points, 44 points, and 2 points.

The total value of our picks is 1022 points. Meaning we could definitely afford the 21st pick, maybe pry away the 12th pick, and have almost no shot at the 6th pick.

Just by looking at those numbers, we'd have to trade our entire draft in order to get one top shelf DT. That means that Hankins (if he stays on his present course of accomplishment) is out of reach. Lotulelei is within our grasp, but we'd have to give up a lot. Would BB be willing to do a Ditka???

I'd be willing to do it though in order to really complement our roster. I think we're very close. We can send Brady out as the greatest winner of all time with minor improvements. For that, I'd be willing to go all in.

I'm not going to dwell on trade up scenarios too much for right now. It's too far off. But I certainly can't see BB every being willing to "do a Ditka". He prefers to diversify too much. The most that BB has ever given up in a trade up since he took over has HC of the Pats is a 3rd round pick (2002 for Ben Watson, 2006 for Chad Jackson, and 2012 for Chandler Jones). He reportedly advised Tom Dimitroff not to make the trade up from 27 to 6 for Julio Jones in 2011. I just can't see that happening.

Other than the Nate Solder and Jerod Mayo trades, the Pats haven't had a draft pick higher than 21 since 2003. They've managed to land Pro Bowlers or All Pro players at 21 or beyond since then in Wilfork, Mankins, Gostkowski, Meriweather, Vollmer, McCourty and Gronkowski. That's basically 1/year from 2004-2011. And unless something unexpected happens next year (player trade or an unexpectedly poor finish), I would be surprised to see the Pats move up much higher than 21 again. So think in the general range of the 3rd or 4th DT taken. My biggest hope is that Kawann Short will leapfrog one of Hankins or Lotulelei - pass rushing DTs tend to go on the higher side, all things considered, and Short looks to be the best penetrating DT in the 2013 class. So I would ideally hope for something like Hankins-Short-Lotulelei, with the Pats making a modest trade up.

The good news is (1) the 2013 draft is likely to be loaded at the DT position (2) the 2013 draft is likely to be loaded with QBs and pass rushers who many teams will prioritize over DTs, (3) players slip, and (4) BB has a proven track record of finding top 10-15 talent in the bottom third of the first round. So I think that whatever they do, they should be able to find a very good DT to pair with Wilfork. Again, I'm very high on Alabama DT Jesse Williams, and Kwame Geathers could also be a solid option.

[Avenger]

Originally Posted by patsfaninpa

Since Belichick's first draft. Not sure if you considred KLEMM A guard or tackle. Let's say guard. And, he never played. He's used exactly one pick in the first 3 rounds on an interior offensive lineman. Logan Mankins. That's 1 out of 40!! We've picked up undrafted free-agents and jags to play G. Koppen was a 5th rounder at Center. Don't think BB values G/C as much as others. Sign me up for a taller DT with some movement ability. We already have a pretty good backup to Vince in Kyle Love. Shorter, squatty type. You never say never with BB. But, he probably sees Robert Gallery as our starting RG in 2013 and for a couple of years afterwards.

I don't think he devalues G/C, but rather picks up guys that Scar can mold into starters.

[ZoisKing]

Walterfootball has a good mock up right now. It'd fit into the thinking we've been tossing around the board about positions of need.

He has us taking Geathers of GA. He also has Barrett Jones staring our way at number 28.

He also has Jesse Williams within a couple picks of our 2nd rounder.

Hankins, Lotulelei, Floyd and Short are all gone by pick 23. Sounds about right.

[mayoclinic]

Originally Posted by ZoisKing

Walterfootball has a good mock up right now. It'd fit into the thinking we've been tossing around the board about positions of need.

He has us taking Geathers of GA. He also has Barrett Jones staring our way at number 28.

He also has Jesse Williams within a couple picks of our 2nd rounder.

Hankins, Lotulelei, Floyd and Short are all gone by pick 23. Sounds about right.

Lotulelei goes 23 in that mock, and would be within trade up range.

Obviously, mocks at this time of year (probably any time of year) are about as accurate as throwing darts at a dartboard blindfolded. But the multiple round mocks in particular are useful for getting a handle on some of the prospects out there for further research.

Sharrif Floyd is a junior, and is another penetrating tackle. Don't see him as a fit for the Pats, but if he comes out and pushes a mobile mammoth down to us I'm all for it. Kawann Short is kind of interesting because he has unusual size for a penetrating DT and could have more versatility. But I generally favor Hankins, Lotulelei, Williams, Geathers and John Jenkins for the Pats at this early juncture. And I'd be just fine right now to end up with Williams or Geathers.

There are some prospects who can be labelled as good fits for the Pats years ahead of time. Vince Wilfork, Nate Solder and Dont'a Hightower are good examples. But it's also quite likely that whoever the Pats end up targeting next year is totally off our radar right now. Devin McCourty, Jerod Mayo and Logan Mankins were all relatively unknown, and were stealth picks. Also, what we see as being a fit and what BB sees as a fit are quite likely to be different.

[ZoisKing]

Originally Posted by mayoclinic

Lotulelei goes 23 in that mock, and would be within trade up range.

Obviously, mocks at this time of year (probably any time of year) are about as accurate as throwing darts at a dartboard blindfolded. But the multiple round mocks in particular are useful for getting a handle on some of the prospects out there for further research.

Sharrif Floyd is a junior, and is another penetrating tackle. Don't see him as a fit for the Pats, but if he comes out and pushes a mobile mammoth down to us I'm all for it. Kawann Short is kind of interesting because he has unusual size for a penetrating DT and could have more versatility. But I generally favor Hankins, Lotulelei, Williams, Geathers and John Jenkins for the Pats at this early juncture. And I'd be just fine right now to end up with Williams or Geathers.

There are some prospects who can be labelled as good fits for the Pats years ahead of time. Vince Wilfork, Nate Solder and Dont'a Hightower are good examples. But it's also quite likely that whoever the Pats end up targeting next year is totally off our radar right now. Devin McCourty, Jerod Mayo and Logan Mankins were all relatively unknown, and were stealth picks. Also, what we see as being a fit and what BB sees as a fit are quite likely to be different.

Mock drafts outside of the top five picks are wildly incorrect year after year. Like you said though, its a good determiner of which players are in the spotlight, and the positional depths.

I agree wholeheartedly with your five fits at DT for the Pats. That's the core group we can keep an eye on this season and see how they progress. I think Jenkins, Geathers, and Williams are strong possibilities to be there at our pick. However, BB might see fit to take an OT (currenty binky Barrett) and make a trade up from our 2nd in order to grab a DT who is falling due to team needs.

I'm really going to miss local games this year, as I moved away from SEC programming to the Illinois area...no more Arkansas, Georgia, South Carolina, LSU, Florida, Alabama.....*sighs*

[mayoclinic]

Here's a 3 round mock - again, mainly good as a basis for flushing out names for discussion:

http://www.draftsite.com/nfl/mock-draft/2013/

Some names of potential interest, outside of the guys already discussed:

96. Kenjon Balmer, RB, Oregon - an elusive "flex back", he and LaMichael James were 1 and 1a for Oregon the last 2 years.
86. Cobi Hamilton, WR, Arkansas - another in the Arkansas WR pipeline. Will probably go higher.
66. Omereggi Uzzi, OG, Georgia Tech - the Pats will likely be in the market for OG/C talent in 2013. Has nice lateral movement.
62. Ray Graham, RB, Pitt - another flex back.
59. Jonathan Cooper, OG, North Carolina - one hell of a guard prospect. Probably better than Amini Silatolu. Might also be a potential OC convert.
51. John Jenkins, DT, Georgia. Could be the 5th or 6th DT if he comes out. Is an impact player at times, disappears at other times. But the potential is there.
48. Khaled Holmes, OC, USC - another potential 1st round caliber prospect. One of the best center prospects since Maurkice Pouncey in 2010.
44. Bjoern Warner, DE, Florida St. He's already been mentioned as someone to keep an eye on.

Again, the actual projections are meaningless. They have both Hankins and Lotulelei going 2nd round.

[The Gr8est]

Unless one of the blue chip DTs fall to a reasonable trading range, I'd like to see if BB could hatch another "Golden Goose", and trade away the 2013 #1 pick for a #2 or #3 pick and that team's 2014 #1; rinse and repeat.

It takes a really gr8 prospect for me to want to give that up, and this year notwithstanding, I think BB likes that too.

[ZoisKing]

Originally Posted by mayoclinic

Here's a 3 round mock - again, mainly good as a basis for flushing out names for discussion:

http://www.draftsite.com/nfl/mock-draft/2013/

Some names of potential interest, outside of the guys already discussed:

96. Kenjon Balmer, RB, Oregon - an elusive "flex back", he and LaMichael James were 1 and 1a for Oregon the last 2 years.
86. Cobi Hamilton, WR, Arkansas - another in the Arkansas WR pipeline. Will probably go higher.
66. Omereggi Uzzi, OG, Georgia Tech - the Pats will likely be in the market for OG/C talent in 2013. Has nice lateral movement. Another name guy to add to the likes of Rambo, Star, and Mingo
62. Ray Graham, RB, Pitt - another flex back.
59. Jonathan Cooper, OG, North Carolina - one hell of a guard prospect. Probably better than Amini Silatolu. Might also be a potential OC convert.
51. John Jenkins, DT, Georgia. Could be the 5th or 6th DT if he comes out. Is an impact player at times, disappears at other times. But the potential is there.
48. Khaled Holmes, OC, USC - another potential 1st round caliber prospect. One of the best center prospects since Maurkice Pouncey in 2010.
44. Bjoern Warner, DE, Florida St. He's already been mentioned as someone to keep an eye on.

Again, the actual projections are meaningless. They have both Hankins and Lotulelei going 2nd round. That's crazy talk.

If the juniors come out, then we'd really benefit from the talent pushed down to us.

[mayoclinic]

Originally Posted by The Gr8est

Unless one of the blue chip DTs fall to a reasonable trading range, I'd like to see if BB could hatch another "Golden Goose", and trade away the 2013 #1 pick for a #2 or #3 pick and that team's 2014 #1; rinse and repeat.

It takes a really gr8 prospect for me to want to give that up, and this year notwithstanding, I think BB likes that too.

If teams are willing to cooperate, I'm all for that scenario. My preference:

1. Take a guy who could be an impact player and difference maker.
2. Trade back for a 2014 1st and take a guy who will be a solid starter.

There will be plenty of guys in the second round who should be able to contribute significantly.

It seems like this year at least teams wised up and weren't trading away their 1st or 2nd round picks from 2013, with few exceptions. The new Raiders GM has publicly said that he's not going to play that game. But maybe by next year people will have forgotten how stupid it is and will be so in love with the 2013 crop that they will lose all self-discipline.

[ZoisKing]

Originally Posted by The Gr8est

Unless one of the blue chip DTs fall to a reasonable trading range, I'd like to see if BB could hatch another "Golden Goose", and trade away the 2013 #1 pick for a #2 or #3 pick and that team's 2014 #1; rinse and repeat.

It takes a really gr8 prospect for me to want to give that up, and this year notwithstanding, I think BB likes that too.

I like your thinking on this. If we miss out on Hankins or Star, then trading back into the middle of round two in a loaded draft isn't a bad idea at all.

I'm already somber about not having an additional first or 2nd next year..