* Ye Olde 2013 Mock Draft Thread!! *

[mayoclinic]

Originally Posted by manxman2601

2011 was an offensive draft. '12 was a defensive one. The last two drafts have barely touched the O and D lines (Solder being the exception). That does seem to be logical direction of the next draft.

Thinling about it form the "inside out" rather than from offense vs. defense, neither draft addressed the "core" of either line. We addressed OT (Solder Cannon), RB (Vereen, Ridley) and QB (Mallett) on offense, along with DE (Jones, Bequette), OLB (Hightower) and DB (Wilson, Dennard) on defense. The remaining "hole" is the interior of both lines: OG, C and DT.

I doubt BB will want to box himself into a corner the way he did at the TE position in 2010, where he essentially HAS to draft to fill an area of need. We've seen that his approach is essentially to plug holes in FA, then draft to upgrade the talent, and let social Darwinism do the rest.

The interior DL is not shabby. Wilfork is a beast. But he's on the wrong side of 30, and while he is superbly conditioned his snap participation increased 30% last year, and that puts him at increased risk for injury and wear and tear. Love will be an RFA, Pryor (and Brace, if you care) a UFA. Warren will be 34. Jonathan Fanene is 30. So there is certainly some room to start infusing some young talent. In addition, we saw briefly in 2011 how dominant the DL could be if Wilfork were paired with another dominant tackle. Although Albert Haynesworth managed to implode as expected, he showed just enough glimpses to tantalize. I don't think it's a "must" need, but given the talent coming out I think there is a tremendous opportunity to upgrade the interior DL talent and complete the rebuilding of the defense.

Interior OL is slightly different. Scar is a master at filling holes, and Gallery (if extended) and Cannon offer some positional flexibility. But Logan Mankins and Dan Connolly are the only sure things for 2012, and both are over 30. It may not be a critical need, but it is certainly another area that could use an infusion of talent.

The Pats have spent 2 1st round picks and 5 2nd round picks on DBs since 2007. They haven't used a day 1 or 2 pick on an interior OL in those 6 years and the only one used on the DL was Ron Brace, who was a reach.

[Off The Grid]

Needless to say, I am with you 1000% on all of that Post, but this in particular:

Originally Posted by mayoclinic

In addition, we saw briefly in 2011 how dominant the DL could be if Wilfork were paired with another dominant tackle. Although Albert Haynesworth managed to implode as expected, he showed just enough glimpses to tantalize.

I don't think it's a "must" need, but given the talent coming out I think there is a tremendous opportunity to upgrade the interior DL talent and complete the rebuilding of the defense.

YES.

And to make a point to our Brethren that I know you agree with:

When you're in the business of winning Championships, sometimes "Need" is eclipsed by "Impact."

The seismic IMPACT that a SuperBeast like Star Lotulelei projects to be, teaming up with Vince Wilfork to crush, demolish, and annihilate the interior of Offensive Lines ALL across the Land...and its potentially vast Ripple Effect on the entire Defense...TRUMPS any patching and pasting we might consider at other positions...at least in MY eyes.

[mayoclinic]

Looking at it another way, the Pats have spent two 3rd round picks on QBs in the last 5 years, but their highest pick on the interior OL has been Rich Ohrnberger in the 4th round in 2009. Their interior DL picks during that time have been Ron Brace in the 2nd round, Myron Pryor in the 6th, and Brandon Deaderick in the 7th.

Time to re-invest in the core of the lines, IMHO.

[patsfaninpa]

Originally Posted by mayoclinic

Looking at it another way, the Pats have spent two 3rd round picks on QBs in the last 5 years, but their highest pick on the interior OL has been Rich Ohrnberger in the 4th round in 2009. Their interior DL picks during that time have been Ron Brace in the 2nd round, Myron Pryor in the 6th, and Brandon Deaderick in the 7th.

Time to re-invest in the core of the lines, IMHO.

Since Belichick's first draft. Not sure if you considred KLEMM A guard or tackle. Let's say guard. And, he never played. He's used exactly one pick in the first 3 rounds on an interior offensive lineman. Logan Mankins. That's 1 out of 40!! We've picked up undrafted free-agents and jags to play G. Koppen was a 5th rounder at Center. Don't think BB values G/C as much as others. Sign me up for a taller DT with some movement ability. We already have a pretty good backup to Vince in Kyle Love. Shorter, squatty type. You never say never with BB. But, he probably sees Robert Gallery as our starting RG in 2013 and for a couple of years afterwards.

[mayoclinic]

Originally Posted by patsfaninpa

Since Belichick's first draft. Not sure if you considred KLEMM A guard or tackle. Let's say guard. And, he never played. He's used exactly one pick in the first 3 rounds on an interior offensive lineman. Logan Mankins. That's 1 out of 40!! We've picked up undrafted free-agents and jags to play G. Koppen was a 5th rounder at Center. Don't think BB values G/C as much as others. Sign me up for a taller DT with some movement ability. We already have a pretty good backup to Vince in Kyle Love. Shorter, squatty type. You never say never with BB. But, he probably sees Robert Gallery as our starting RG in 2013 and for a couple of years afterwards.

It's a good point. In 13 drafts under BB the Pats have used somewhere around 4-5 (depending on how you count Adrian Klemm; Light, Kaczur, Vollmer and Solder), and only 1-2 1st-3rd round picks on interior OLs - Mankins and possibly Klemm. Combined, it works out to about 1 offensive lineman in the first 3 rounds every other draft.

[ZoisKing]

Originally Posted by patsfaninpa

Since Belichick's first draft. Not sure if you considred KLEMM A guard or tackle. Let's say guard. And, he never played. He's used exactly one pick in the first 3 rounds on an interior offensive lineman. Logan Mankins. That's 1 out of 40!! We've picked up undrafted free-agents and jags to play G. Koppen was a 5th rounder at Center. Don't think BB values G/C as much as others. Sign me up for a taller DT with some movement ability. We already have a pretty good backup to Vince in Kyle Love. Shorter, squatty type. You never say never with BB. But, he probably sees Robert Gallery as our starting RG in 2013 and for a couple of years afterwards.

It'd be a good idea to invest a high pick for the inside of the line, but if other needs present themselves early, then I'm sure we can find a guy in the middle rounds.

An interior guy who can replace the likely exiting Koppen (near future) is high on the shopping list though.

[mayoclinic]

Originally Posted by ZoisKing

It'd be a good idea to invest a high pick for the inside of the line, but if other needs present themselves early, then I'm sure we can find a guy in the middle rounds.

An interior guy who can replace the likely exiting Koppen (near future) is high on the shopping list though.

Agreed. I had the Pats passing on interior OL until the 3rd round and then taking Louisville OC Mario Benavides in my first mock. There are other solid prospects who should be available later on in the draft: Ben Habern (Oklahoma), juniors Travis Swenson and Alvin Bailey (Arkansas), and others.

[ZoisKing]

I revisited some tape of Johnathon Hankins and Star Lotulelei last night. After watching, I came away with the opinion that Hankins is the better of the two and if he were to line up opposite Wilfork we'd have the scariest 1-2 punch in the league on D-line.

That's not to say that Star isn't going to be a special guy himself. I like his athleticism and his ability to disengage and pursue, but Hankins is just a ridiculous beast of a football player. He just tosses guys left and right, bulldozes double teams and has great vision.

I'm looking forward to this coming season so I can see more of him. Being a Buckeyes fan keeps me up to date on OSU prospects, and I'll be following him much more this year since he'll be draft eligible.

[mayoclinic]

Originally Posted by ZoisKing

I revisited some tape of Johnathon Hankins and Star Lotulelei last night. After watching, I came away with the opinion that Hankins is the better of the two and if he were to line up opposite Wilfork we'd have the scariest 1-2 punch in the league on D-line.

That's not to say that Star isn't going to be a special guy himself. I like his athleticism and his ability to disengage and pursue, but Hankins is just a ridiculous beast of a football player. He just tosses guys left and right, bulldozes double teams and has great vision.

I'm looking forward to this coming season so I can see more of him. Being a Buckeyes fan keeps me up to date on OSU prospects, and I'll be following him much more this year since he'll be draft eligible.

I'm sort of assuming that whoever ends up being the #1 DT for 2013 will probably be out of reach. The #2 guy may be within a trade-up. And after that should be in our territory.

I think that Hankins and Lotulelei are slightly different players. Both should be special.

[ZoisKing]

Originally Posted by mayoclinic

I'm sort of assuming that whoever ends up being the #1 DT for 2013 will probably be out of reach. The #2 guy may be within a trade-up. And after that should be in our territory.

I think that Hankins and Lotulelei are slightly different players. Both should be special.

So let's take a look at possible trade value then. New England is going to be picking 32nd next year. So they need to move up from that position how many spots to get into prime DT territory? Here are the draft positions for the 1st three DTS taken in the 1st round of the past five drafts: 2012 draft (11,12,14), 2011 draft (3,13,18), 2010 draft (2,3,10), 2009 draft (9,24,32), 2008 draft (5,7,29).

The average draft position of the 1st DT taken is 6th, the second 12th, and the third 21st. Those picks are worth 1600, 1200, and 800 respectively. So we'd need to give up 1000 points, 600 points, or 200 points in order to move up. We currently own the 32nd, 64th, 96th, 128th, and the 224th. Those picks are worth 590 points, 270 points, 116 points, 44 points, and 2 points.

The total value of our picks is 1022 points. Meaning we could definitely afford the 21st pick, maybe pry away the 12th pick, and have almost no shot at the 6th pick.

Just by looking at those numbers, we'd have to trade our entire draft in order to get one top shelf DT. That means that Hankins (if he stays on his present course of accomplishment) is out of reach. Lotulelei is within our grasp, but we'd have to give up a lot. Would BB be willing to do a Ditka???

I'd be willing to do it though in order to really complement our roster. I think we're very close. We can send Brady out as the greatest winner of all time with minor improvements. For that, I'd be willing to go all in.