FredFromDartmouth

Before we get all High and Mighty about players we like (based on player evaluations) take a moment to consider what the 2008 Pro Football Weekly Draft Guide said about Jerod Mayo:

"...Instincts are off. Consistently bites on play-action and gets fooled by misdirection. ...Does not give great effort in backside pursuit. Too often gets walled off and sealed and is late to get off blocks. Over-pursues, takes bad angles, comes underneath blocks, and opens up cutback lanes. Tight-hipped. Can be sidestepped and juked in the open field....Limited range in coverage. ... Character needs to be evaluated..."

Meanwhile Keith Rivers got a glowing review; he was the top rated OLB in the draft while Mayo was 8. Mayo, of course, went on to earn the defensive rookie of the year award.

The lesson here is that we, as draftnics, have a very inaccurate picture of prospects so flamewars are totally inappropriate and ungentlemanly.

gomezcat

It's probably why the person in question was writing for a magazine, not for an NFL head coach and his team.

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patsfaninpa

We rip on hit a lot at times. But, Mel Kiper was very big on Jerod that year. Had him on his Sat. am show a couple of times bragging him up. Turned out right. In 09, Mel had Ron Brace on a few times. It really is a hit/miss business.

Sfpat

There were many who thought Gerald McCoy was the better pick over Suh. There is no exact science in evaluating college players.

FredFromDartmouth

Yes quite true.

Looking over the old draft guides I was impressed at how many highly-ranked players evaporate after the draft. There are a lot more misses than hits. The Mock Drafts are only an approximation of how they will drafted and even less accurate, a lot less accurate, in how they will do in the NFL.

Wilfork#75

I think the Rivers and McCoy picks are prime examples of why some top draft prospects never really live up to expectations. Both guys had major injuries early in their careers, which I believe hindered their development. From what I can remember, Rivers was playing at a very high level in his rookie year, and was possibly the leading candidate for rookie of the year before Hines Ward broke his jaw. McCoy has only played 19 games over his first 2 seasons, and when he has been on the field he hasn't really been completely healthy. I think a lot of draft busts are as much to do with injuries and situations as it is the player. Some guys are unlucky and injuries really take a toll on their careers. Some guys just go to situations where they have no chance to succeed, like David Carr with that sieve of a Texans offensive line. I think the draft is an inexact science not because of the difficulty of evaluating talent, but because talent is only one of many factors that go into the draft process. How will a player fit a system, locker room, environment, city. How do you use them, how early do you use them, do you throw them to the wolves or give them time to develop. There is no handbook for these things because it all depends on the personality of the individual. And its this mismanagement or misevaluation of the individual rather than the player that I believe leads to most of the busts in the NFL.

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Sfpat

I lived in Oklahoma when McCoy was at OU and watched a fair amount of OU football. Somehow, he never stood out to me and I just didn't recall his name being called often. I was surprised he was rated so highly. On the other hand, Suh was a one man wrecking crew at Nebraska. His name was called on practically every play. My amateur analysis had Suh far ahead of McCoy based solely on their playmaking.

NinjaZX6R

Yeah. I didn't think that highly of McCoy. I loved Suh and had hoped that the Pats would take him. Then, sadly for us, the Texas Nebraska Big12 Championship game happened and his stock sky rocketed.

He was dominating every snap he took. He made those two Texas Guards his own personal b.....

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Fake FB toss 65 QB dive.

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BradyBranch39

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BradyBranch39

I figured that would be online somewhere to read+laugh at, and here it is:
2008 NFL Draft Retrospective: Brian Brohm - Buffalo Rumblings

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