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Instead of pissing each other off about the strengths/weaknesses/wisdom/follies of the 2011 draft, I want to take a look at the position groups that the Patriots may have needs to draft in 2012. I know this is early as there is no CBA and there is no free agency period where an area of current need could be filled by a vet who gets a six year contract next week. But let's take a look anyways as I am waiting for a massive process to complete at work. I am assuming no rookie Gus Scott contract situations.
Offense
QB: Minimal need, perhaps a late round flyer but with Brady signed for several more years, Hoyer a solid back-up and Mallet as the potential QB of the Future, there is minimal need.
RB: Minimal need, perhaps a late round flyer. Woodhead, Ridley and Vereen are all signed for 2012.
TE: Minimal need. Gronk and Hernandez are both signed for two more years and should hold the #1 and #2 slots/playing time by the end of 2011.
WR: Significant need. Branch and Welker are getting older, and so far Tate, Price and Edelman are question marks. Could see a 2nd round pick used here.
OT: Modest need, could see a Day 3 pick here. Vollmer and hopefully Solder are the long term bookends, but depth is a bit questionable.
Interior OL: Major need --- Connelly could concievably be the only Day 1 2011 starter back. Koppen is getting older and as 3-4 defenses proliferate, he has noticable trouble with big NTs. There are two many IFs here.
Offense, the interior line and the wide receivers have the greatest need given age/contract situations.
Defense
NT: Minimal, although if an athletic 340 pound freak falls into the Pats lap, they will never complain as they spring to the podium.
3-4 DE: Moderate --- Half of the rotation is old or getting to be old, and the other half have not proven they can be every down/every game players.
ILB: Minimal --- Mayo, Spikes, Guyton are all signed for a couple more seasons.
OLB: Significant --- Only Cunningham is on the upside of his career. TBC and Moore are both old for a position that relies on both power and speed, while Ninkovich is solid, he is not spectacular.
CB: Minimal --- Bodden, McCourty are signed for a couple more seasons, Wilhite is the only FA from the current group IIRC, and he is replacable.
Safety: Significant --- Meriweather will be a FA, Sanders is starting to get old. Will Chung and Dowling be the combo of the future?
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NT: Minimal, although if an athletic 340 pound freak falls into the Pats lap, they will never complain as they spring to the podium.
I think this is why some people were suggesting that the Pats might try Cannon out on the DL. I'm not at all in favor of the idea, but I can at least understand the sentiment.
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So we need help at OG, C, WR, DE and OLB (and a late round OT).
This analysis could have been written before the 2010 draft and again before the 2011 draft.
Obviously, we had other needs that were filled, but these needs were there.
Very true. It would undoubtedly appear the draft hasn't fallen the way of BB using quality resources on those positions in recent drafts.
It does lead me to ask a question though. Would you swap our starters and depth at any of the other position groups QB, OT, TE, CB, ILB, NT, S or RB with their equivalent position group from any team in the league right now in terms of this year or the potential for future years?
Very true. It would undoubtedly appear the draft hasn't fallen the way of BB using quality resources on those positions in recent drafts.
It does lead me to ask a question though. Would you swap our starters and depth at any of the other position groups QB, OT, TE, CB, ILB, NT, S or RB with their equivalent position group from any team in the league right now in terms of this year or the potential for future years?
S Yes. RB Yes. CB Yes (Debatable). S Steelers, RB Vikings. CB GreenBay
I think a lot depends on the development of Price and Cannon. Also on the resigning of Mankins. I see Price to replace branch and cannon to step in at RG in a perfect world
My personal needs go:
C - Basically due to Koppen's age: 1st/2nd/3rd depending on the talent pool available.
FS - once again depending on the talent available in the draft, both for depth and as a possible Merriweather replacement.
The other picks for me are really just BPA for the team and hopefully continue to trade picks into the future to keep the draft picks coming.
Right now, my guess at the biggest positional needs would be C/G and OLB. I don't see Mankins staying longterm in New England and Koppen is set to become an 32 year old UFA in 2012. Marcus Cannon could become Mankins successor at LG, but they would still need someone to play center unless Wendell or Ohrnberger can step in. The Patriots could move Connolly over to center, but then they would need someone to play RG. So it's either center or guard for me.
The second big need in my eyes is OLB. They have only two guys signed through 2012 (unless you're sure that Markell Carter will make the team), Cunningham and Banta-Cain and Banta-Cain hasn't lived up to the big contract he signed in 2010. OLB is a position where the Patriots lack quality and quantity, so drafting a guy would make sense, wouldn't it?
1) Koppen passes to 1st round pick Mike Brewster C Ohio ST. (young Mangold)
2) Vinny Curry nasty DE from Marshall
These two guys will cost around two firsts and two seconds. We take what is left and take them for future picks.
And when was the last time the Patriots went all in to grab a blue chipper?
I think your scenario is very unlikely. I could see a scenario where the Pats use both firsts and a second or a third to move around to grab two guys they love, but not 80% of their draft capital on just two guys.
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FWIW, NFL Draft Scout has given Mike Brewster a 3rd round grade and he is their second best center among seniors, behind Georgia's Ben Jones who holds a 2nd round grade.