patchick

OK, we all know that you can "manufacture" draft value over the long term by trading into the future. We also know that BB is the leading practitioner of this little art. But I was surprised to discover that he's the ONLY practitioner of it.

I just reviewed the past three drafts, looking for every major transfer of value from a current to future draft. Here's the full list of trades involving a day 1 or 2 pick where the clear majority of the compensation was in future picks:

2009
Seattle #37 Denver's 2010 1st
San Francisco #43 + #11 for Carolina's 2010 1st
New England #73 for Jax 2009 7th + 2010 2nd
New England #89 for Tennessee 2010 2nd

2010
New England #89 for Carolina 2011 2nd

2011
New England #28 for New Orleans #56 + 2012 1st
New England #92 + #125 for Oakland #219 + 2012 2nd

That's 5 out of 7 for Belichick, and every single example for the past 2 years. IOW, nobody else does this at all. Even trade-happy Philadelphia makes most of its hay trading players for picks, or smaller deals like a high 4th this year for a low 4th this year + next year's 4th. Only BB runs a high-pick assembly line.

(BTW all of that trading away does't mean that the Patriots "don't use their picks." In fact, they drafted an incredible 16 players in the top 3 rounds over that period.)

Oswlek

BB has found an arbitrage and is working the hell out of it.

The consensus is that a pick tomorrow is worth a round less than a pick today, with it being analogous to currency inflation.

But that analogy is flawed. Since the year lost is subsequently gained on the backend of the rookie contract, the purchasing power remains the same. All that is sacrificed is the potential quality of this year's squad, which is a tough pill to swallow for someone trying to prove their worth to ownership and fans.

As long as you have the job security to view the 2014 Patriots as important as the 2011 Patriots it is like free currency.

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"They have one objective," said Washington cornerback Shawn Springs. "They whoop people's [backsides]. If you understand that, it answers all your questions. They might not lose [this year]."

Oswlek

This one confuses me:

When was San Francisco in posession of Carolina's 2010 1st rounder?

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"They have one objective," said Washington cornerback Shawn Springs. "They whoop people's [backsides]. If you understand that, it answers all your questions. They might not lose [this year]."

patchick

SF drafted Mike Iupati #17 overall with Carolina's 2010 1st.

Oswlek

Oops, confusing years in my head...

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"They have one objective," said Washington cornerback Shawn Springs. "They whoop people's [backsides]. If you understand that, it answers all your questions. They might not lose [this year]."

Shelterdog

People really underestimate this fact.

Like every team, the Pats have question marks at multiple position.

However, most teams have to rely on late draft picks, cheap free agents, and the like as their solution to many of their question marks. The Pats' solution to many of their question marks is a young player drafted in the first three rounds.

For example, the Pats and Jets both have uncertainity at the third wideout spot next year. The Pats probably go with either Tate or Price as their third receiver, while the Jets (assuming they are only able to keep one of Edwards or Holmes and lose Brad Smith) are going to rely on Cotch at number two and either Kerley (a fifth round pick), Turner (a waiver wire guy) or some as yet unsigned cheap veteran. Now Kerley or the cheap vet, either of whom is new to the Jets, could obviously be better than Tate or Price but my money is on the third round pick with system experience instead of the fifth round pick without it.

patchick

A little corollary to this is that it's much easier for Pats' fans to name 2nd & 3rd round busts than most fans. The Pats give them twice as many opportunities.

Shelterdog

Yup. Of course fans really overestimate how good the average second or third round draft pick ends up being. They think that every second and third round pick should be good when in fact maybe half of second round picks and a third of third round picks are.

Butler and Brace are seen as big busts, and they're not particularly good NFL players at this point but if you look at the 11 guys drafted between right after them (J. Byrd, Everette Brown, Pat White, Clint Sintim, Connor Barwin, M.Mitchell in Oakland, Darcel McBath, Max Unger, Massaquoi, Levitre, Veikune) you've got two guys who are out of football (Veikune and White), four decent starters (Byrd, Unger, Levitre and Massaquoi) and five guys who haven't consistently cracked the starting lineup on crappy teams.

ctpatsfan77

Fixed that for you.

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"Momentum was quickly snatched away by New England, who once again proved that any Patriot, at any moment, can make a play." —Inside the NFL, Packers v. Patriots

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TealSox

General Managers and Head Coaches fall in love with players during the draft process. The Falcons fell hard for Julio Jones, Carolina fell in love with Everette Brown, Denver with Tim Tebow and the list goes on. Often times, it seems that these teams believe that they are one player away from reaching their goals, albeit a winning season, the playoffs or Super Bowl. Other times, a player is so good that a team believes the reward is worth the risk like Brady Quinn, Joe Staley or Michael Oher.

Rarely have I got the opinion that Belichick falls in love with prospects prior to the draft, with exception of Darius Butler. I suppose an argument can be made that whenever he doesn't trade a pick, he fell in love with the player they selected (e.g. Ras-I Dowling). But overall, he doesn't get irrational about his picks and looks to gain value, whereby building value and diversifying his portfolio in a way.

When the Patriots traded their first round pick to the Ravens, it wasn't because Belichick didn't have Michael Oher on his board. Oher was certainly on the board, but with the additional picks in the second and third round, Belichick figured he could still get a solid Offensive Tackle (in Volmer) plus Butler, Chung, Brace and Tate. Whereby the Ravens have their money on one player, the Patriots were able to spread the risk.

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"It's not whether you get knocked down; it's whether you get up."Vince Lombardi


Pats fan since 1993