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Old 05-06-2011, 04:11 PM   #1
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Default Drafting in Pairs, Lesson Learned?

Sean McCormick, Football Outsiders:
Quote:
Part of the pain of missing on a first-round draft choice is that teams generally don't think about a Plan B.
Agreed, especially when the hole you have at that ONE position is so great that success in the forthcoming season depends upon that one player you select in that years draft.

McCormick goes on to say....
Quote:
The Bills drafted Aaron Maybin 11th overall in 2009 with the idea that he would develop into a premiere edge rusher -- and they haven't drafted a pass-rusher since. Unfortunately, Maybin has been a nonentity, and three years later the only alternatives on the roster are Shawne Merriman and Chris Kelsay, two big names who are only a shadow of their former selves.
Tied for the third lowest sacks (27), the Bills inevitable lost a season, which couldn't be recovered despite their mid-season acquisition of Shawne Merriman. But how could they had known that Maybin would bust in his first year? What could they had done differently in the draft?

Hindsight would suggest that the Bills may not had faired that much better with any of the Defensive Ends selected later in the draft, but more importantly should they had double-dipped at the position had the value been there at Defensive End?

Given a team is investing an entire season on an untested, rookie talent, I believe it would be prudent to double-dip when the value presents itself to the point that the needs of team are fully addressed.

So what does this mean, in regards to Vereen and Ripley?

Clearly the running back position was getting older and less reliable [shadows of their former selves, as McCormick would say]. A need was developing at the position that Belichick was rumored to having wanted to fill with Pierre Thomas last season. While both backs are talented in different aspects of the position, I'd go as far as to say that Belichick was protecting the team from investing too much in one player at a position that was arguably critical to success in 2012.

I'd venture to say that 2010 was a successful example of double-dipping, when it came to the tight end position.

NFL: Biggest post-draft needs for every AFC East team - ESPN
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Old 05-06-2011, 04:56 PM   #2
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Default Re: Drafting in Pairs, Lesson Learned?

Quote:
Originally Posted by TealSox View Post
Sean McCormick, Football Outsiders:

Agreed, especially when the hole you have at that ONE position is so great that success in the forthcoming season depends upon that one player you select in that years draft.

McCormick goes on to say....

Tied for the third lowest sacks (27), the Bills inevitable lost a season, which couldn't be recovered despite their mid-season acquisition of Shawne Merriman. But how could they had known that Maybin would bust in his first year? What could they had done differently in the draft?

Hindsight would suggest that the Bills may not had faired that much better with any of the Defensive Ends selected later in the draft, but more importantly should they had double-dipped at the position had the value been there at Defensive End?
The Bills could have drafted Chris Doleman and Lawrence Taylor that draft, And they still wouldn't be any good. Passrush is the least of that team's problems.
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Old 05-06-2011, 08:52 PM   #3
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Default Re: Drafting in Pairs, Lesson Learned?

stop the madness.

the pats drafted 2 te 'cuz they like to carry 3, they planned on using more 2 te sets, and they had zero at the time.

I doubt they planned on going into the season with one te.

belichick was losing 3-4 rb, and if they want to carry 4 (or 5?) drafting one guy won't cut it.

he isn't drafting 2 at a position for redundancy.
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Old 05-06-2011, 09:06 PM   #4
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Default Re: Drafting in Pairs, Lesson Learned?

I agree with the premise that when drafting that high you are basically selling your soul for at least 3 years to the position. But the Pats didn't double dip because it was safer. They were drafting different positions. Vereen as the 3rd down back and Ridley as the goal-line back. They will have different roles on the team.
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Old 05-06-2011, 09:35 PM   #5
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Default Re: Drafting in Pairs, Lesson Learned?

IMHO, if the youngsters stay healthy...this could be the best run offense the Pats will have had in quite a while.....
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Old 05-07-2011, 06:08 AM   #6
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Default Re: Drafting in Pairs, Lesson Learned?

If anything this points to the crap shoot that is an early first round pick.. see Maybin for the Bills and Gholston for the Jets..

Last year we drafted two LB's.. but still not sure what any of this means, except that many draftees look very good on paper.. but after that it is a stretch.

This year he drafted two RB's because he had two openings, and after the Fred Taylor experiment.. he chose youth. Many RB's only have X number of carries..
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Old 05-07-2011, 12:05 PM   #7
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Wink Re: Drafting in Pairs, Lesson Learned?

Yes, the patriots learned that when you need two at a position, then drafting two quality players is a good idea.

We had a need for at least 2 TE's last year and 2 RB's this year. The actual need was even more. So we drafted an additional TE this year, and might well have drafted a third running back had someone been there that Belichick wanted.
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Old 05-07-2011, 02:52 PM   #8
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Default Re: Drafting in Pairs, Lesson Learned?

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Yes, the patriots learned that when you need two at a position, then drafting two quality players is a good idea.
Back to Arthur Love and Jabari Holloway, the Patriots have been consistently drafting two to get one through the Belichick era (not that they wouldn't be happy to get two, I'm sure).

As for whether it's a good idea, well for every Gronkowski/Hernandez or Eugene Wilson/Asante Samuel there seems to be a Gus Scott/Dexter Reid and a Tyrone Wheatley/Jonathan Wilhite. But things have been working out pretty well overall.
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Old 05-07-2011, 03:02 PM   #9
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Default Re: Drafting in Pairs, Lesson Learned?

I have noticed the pair thing myself over the years and have a simple theory.

When the Patriots have a pressing need (like running back this year apparently) they invest a ton of research in the position and discover a few gems along the way including some late round gems. After they get their guy they keep looking; in the later rounds they sometimes find one of these gems still available at what they think is a great value and draft him.

I think that this clearly happened with Hernandez. They already had Gronk in the fold and found Hernandez still on the board in the fourth; they had already checked him out thoroughly and thought he would be great value at that slot. They were right. I sure hope they are right about Stevan Ridley

Last year I felt great about the draft; not this year. It still seems like they muffed it...

Last edited by FredFromDartmouth; 05-07-2011 at 03:03 PM..
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Old 05-07-2011, 03:40 PM   #10
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Default Re: Drafting in Pairs, Lesson Learned?

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Originally Posted by FredFromDartmouth View Post
I have noticed the pair thing myself over the years and have a simple theory.

When the Patriots have a pressing need (like running back this year apparently) they invest a ton of research in the position and discover a few gems along the way including some late round gems. After they get their guy they keep looking; in the later rounds they sometimes find one of these gems still available at what they think is a great value and draft him.

I think that this clearly happened with Hernandez. They already had Gronk in the fold and found Hernandez still on the board in the fourth; they had already checked him out thoroughly and thought he would be great value at that slot. They were right. I sure hope they are right about Stevan Ridley
I think they invest a ton of research at ALL positions. I'm sure they could just as easily have drafted two wide receivers, if that was the route they were going. It seems to me that there's just too much of a pattern.

Here's an argument. Why do good college players bust? One reason may be that they don't make the right transition to the pros -- get too c0cky or can't find their feet. The Patriots' culture specializes in keeping rookies humble. Two of them together forces them to learn and compete and not take their progress for granted. Of course, the Patriots always want depth at all positions, so that doesn't hurt either.

Quote:
Originally Posted by FredFromDartmouth View Post
Last year I felt great about the draft; not this year. It still seems like they muffed it...
I'm at peace with this draft. I don't know how the rookies will turn out as players. As people, they seem as you'd hope. The pass rush question remains, of course.
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