jeffbiologist

BB the tradesman was at it again but lets take a look at the trades and see which ones we agree on and which ones we dont.

#28(Ingram) for #56(Vereen) and New Orleans 2012 First--few could argue the value BB got here unless Ingram goes on to emulate Emmitt Smith. Vereen seems a decent enough RB but NO is looking good going into the season in a tough division. This pick will likely be #24 or below. Trade value chart #28(660)<#56(340)+2012 #24/2(future round half value--740/2=370). Results:

#60(B.Harris) for #73(effectively Mallett) and #138(Cannon). This trade looks to be for the future as neither is expected to contribute right away. I say effectively because I dont think Mallett is taken here unless they have 2 picks together in the 3rd. The question remains is there a player on the board at #60 that COULD have contributed to this team in 2011? I will specifically look at LBs Houston and Wilson's careers going forward. But I also look at #59(Little) and wonder what could have been. Trade value chart #60(300)<#73(225)+#138(37)=262. Results

#92(Barksdale)+#125(Jones) for Raiders 2012 #2. I think BB had reservations at the steak house and had get out of there early. Clearly a bad trade, BB has "fallen in love" with the 2nd round picks if not the players in it and now we are paying a premium. How he could come to the microphone and say that a future 2nd will be better than any 2 players left on the board? Bad PR move. Clearly no one wanted to swap a 3rd for a future 2nd again given BBs enamoration. We had to sweeten the deal? And make it 20 picks before we were on the clock?? The Raiders should be better next year so suggesting #18 is about right. Players to watch that could have contributed this year: Boling, Ballard, Gates, and we could have picked up Cannon here. #92(132)+#125(47)<#50/2(200)

I will make it a little simpler. Would you trade LB Houston/Wilson and G Boling/WR Gates for QB Mallett and next years #2 from Oakland? That is a good question. I know I'd like anther OLB and G on this team.

supafly

I wish people would stop with the 'Cannon will not be able to do anything right away' stuff. Don't tell that to Marcus Cannon, his doctors, or his family. He had already begun treatment a couple of weeks ago, and even his doctors say that there's absolutely no reason why he shouldn't be ready for training camp.

Yes, I am certainly not counting on it, but I am not counting it out either. It's an extremely treatable form of lymphoma, and there's nothing that would suggest that he is a 2012 'project' as most think.

Of course, only time will tell, and I can see both angles. I just want to remind you and everyone else who doubts that he can see the field this yr that is not at all true.

Other than that nitpick, you did a nice job on the subject matter of the thread in my opinion. Very interesting.

supafly

I think he feels as though there's a TON of value not only talent wise, but also financially/cap efficiency wise.

If I had to guess, I'd easily say that Belichick's favorite round is the #2nd.

Tons of potential "1st round talent," not to mention guys that are left, lower contracts, trade potential/value, etc. If I were picking (again..we can all thank God I'm not), I would have to agree with his thinking. Almost all of the players are left -1 round, all of the guys that were projected to be firsts that are left, a high trading value round, well....you get the idea.

Again, I can't for the life of me see 'how we're now paying a premium,' but I do respect your opinion and views.

Sciz

So this is basically another "I like this LB that Bill didn't, so I'm going to complain about it" thread? Houston is a linear pass rush specialist who is not adequate against the run and was describe in one report I saw today as "uncompetitive." Does not sounds like a Patriot. Wilson has huge injury concerns and isn't an OLB anyway. He's an ILB, hence going to play OLB for a 4-3 team.

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eom

I think he said that he felt next year's second rounders would be better players than any currently left on the board.
which is probably true.

it's kind of funny that the guy gets ripped for trading down --- 'away' from better players, and you rip him for trading up towards better players.

I was a little surprised that it took both a third and a 4th, but whatever.
it was the 28th in the 3rd and 28th in the 4th, so it makes some kind of sense.
I'd make that trade every time.

and btw --- you have absolutely no idea where that 2012 pick will fall.
raiders could be bottom 5 for all you know.

Kicking_Game

Agree. The Raiders are losing CB Nnamdi and OL Gallery, and many think they had a poor draft. I think we'll see a return to the "old" Raiders and that will be a top 40 pick.

Sciz

And now that Seymour got paid, he can go back to sloth mode

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jeffbiologist

No, not exactly. It is a "unaddressed needs" thread. A OG and a LB could contribute to THIS 2011 team alot more than Mallett and that 2nd rounder. The contracts are cheaper. There are no guarantees either way, but just as I wouldnt have traded Seymour I'm of the opinion if you treat every year like its your last you do a better job. I think BB has fallen in love with the 2nd round and it finally COST us players instead of added them. JMHO.

SunnyDenmark

Thanks for the thread and time in analyzing the values and spelling it all out. Good work. However, I don't come to the same conclusion.

re: I will make it a little simpler. Would you trade LB Houston/Wilson and G Boling/WR Gates for QB Mallett and next years #2 from Oakland? That is a good question. I know I'd like anther OLB and G on this team.

Cannon taken in 5th is a higher rated lineman than Boling. Gates seems good but is already too few game snaps for even Edelmann / Price to see the field.

Houston OLB - I fell in love with his measureables but fell in hate with this character and lazy motor. Not a Patriot type player.

These players listed (not drafted) might not even see the field anyway to what could be a redshirt type year with little / no OTA's. BB won't let them on the field if they don't know where to line up or don't know their assignments. Shoot, even in a normal year, very few NEP rookies see much playing time.
So why waste a year of their contract in a messed up (no CBA) offseason.

And there are LOTS of young & promising NEP 2nd /3rd year players - high draft picks - who need playing time to further develop.

I'd rather gamble on Oaklands 2nd in 2012 and Mallet (good QB injury insurance). Plus Mallet is an appreciating asset who will likely fetch a higher draft pick in a few years and will be our #2 QB in one year if Hoyer is traded or not resigned.

Metaphors

Try looking at it this way. Belichick specifically wanted Solder, Dowling, Vereen and Ridley. His goal in the draft was to get those guys and maximize the value of all his other picks (trading them, taking targeted sliders).

While I have no idea if it is true or not, it does seem to jibe with what happened:

#17 - Solder was gone to the Giants or Colts so the Pats needed to take him at 17 or lose him. If they were interested in Quinn or Kerrigan, their interest in Solder trumped any thoughts of trade up to get them (and likely any thoughts of taking them at #17).

#28 - Reasonably confident Dowling will be there at the top of the 2nd round, this pick becomes a choice between taking a slider (nobody really qualifies) and trying to get a 1st rounder in 2012. Saints had the best offer.

#33 - With Buffalo a possibility at #34, Dallas at #40 and Houston lurking with a possible trade-up from #42, it would be risky business moving down from #33 and expecting Dowling to be there. Considering Buffalo stuck at #34 instead of trading down with a team looking for a QB, it indicates the trade action at the top of the 2nd was more lukewarm than you might think.

#56 - Small possibility that Detroit takes Vereen at #57 but a greater chance that Cleveland continues to trade down with a team (Miami, Green Bay) looking to get ahead of the Pats at #60 for a RB. They must really like Vereen specifically to not risk it.

#60 - Too early for Ridley with J.Houston (obviously not interested) and Mallett (not interested yet) being the obvious slippers. Texans gives the best offer to move down (though not a great one) so better to get something.

#73 - Still too early for Ridley but the run on RB is ongoing and Washington is sitting there at #79. Better to get him now and declare mission accomplished on the draft objectives.

#74 - With the main business done, the quest for value begins. Now Mallett looks like a much better bargain. That value likely trumped any standing offers to trade into 2012.

#92 - Now the room goes into full-tilt 2012 mode. Let's see. Want a 2012 2nd round pick even though all we have are picks after this draft's talent cliff. Bonus if the team has the potential to suffer a biblical collapse and have that 2012 pick be a near 1st rounder. 1-800-CRAZY-AL.

#138 - Now we are at the point in the draft where nobody will trade up using 2012 picks. Tremendous luck with Cannon still on the board.

Rest of draft - Lee Smith may have been a specific target and they allocated pick #159 to get him. Or the TE draft tick finally kicked in. The last two rounds were for whoever the ST coaches wanted.

This scenario makes far more sense than the notion the Pats just let the draft play out and made it up as they want along.