04-18-2011, 10:12 AM
In the Starting Line-up
Join Date: Jan 2007
Will BB Shock the world?
We always see mocks, suggestions or educated guesses that BB perennially will always trade down. People are saying we trade one of our first rounders or number #33 to go first round add in 2012. I say why Bill? He is called a genius at manipulating the board, but we have had a few stinkers here as well and many that the Pats have undervalued and gone on to the status of "We should have Drafted him!".
All Teams miss, but with our plethora of choices we can take a shot at some blue chippers, not package them for two or three "definite maybes" in the fourth or fifth rounds.
I sat and thought about his rationale. The BB Draft train has to stop one day. We seem to Draft for quantity, not quality.
In 2012 there seems to be players he wants in this Draft. Although it is a very thin Draft class, the quality of what we perceive as needs (not him) happens to meet with this one. If he can get over this "used car salesman" persona for this year to see what happens it might be worth the experiment (for Bill anyway). An example is Green Bay and Philly. They actually try to go after a player they want, not sacrifice him for two that are "o.k." or settled for later on.
I am going to throw this out for your examination. I will still keep "Tradin' Bill's car lot" in business but we will pretend it is the ultimate close out sale.
Please keep in mind that the NFL Draft Trade Value Chart is a guide. It does not have to be followed point by point.
In Round One:
#9 from the Cowboys.
Logic-The Cowboys want to bail at #9 and look for an O Lineman later in the round.
We surrender #28 (660 pts), #33 (which is worth way more than the 580pts suggested because of the new Draft pick format and is considered by most as a number one round value), #125 (47 pts) in the fourth. Not quite up to 1350 points but #33 must be considered a major coup for the Cowboys. That pick must be revalued.
We Draft-Prince Amukamara Safety (Not my cup of tea but BB seems to like this kid and we are in trouble at the Safety position for a play maker. He can also play nickle slot and thus versatility is a BB desire. Still H.L.H. [HEAVY LIP HANG] for all the experts and posters as another DB is chosen high)
#10 from the Redskins
Value 1300 points
Logic-The skins need a QB but the have no third or fourth round pick to move up.#10 is too high for Mallet or Locker. They need picks and a QB.
We surrender #17 at 950 pts, our two third rounders #74 at 220 pts, and #92 at 132 pts. Trade is a point wash.
We Draft-Robert Quinn OLB. Again not my cup of tea, I like Kerrigan , Smith, Jordan or Reed later but the big shots insist this kid is a top ten player.
Now BB puts his trading cap on and offers #60 in the Second Round PLUS our Fifth Rounder #159 to New Orleans for their number #72 and number #88 in the Third Round. That is about a point wash.
Logic-The Saints have the ammunition to move up into the Second Round again. Why not?
We Draft at number #72 James Carpenter OT/OG Very underrated O Lineman from Alabama that I am sure Saban and BB have already discussed. Can play Guard or RT. Versatile.
Now comes Tradin' Bill and he offers #88 in the Third Round to San Francisco for their two Fourth Rounders number #108 and number #115. Again the points are about a wash.
Logic-See above for same logic as Saints would be for this partner San Francisco. Why not move up?
We Draft at number #108 John Moffitt C/OG. Huge size upgrade from Koppen. Can play Guard until after this year when Koppen contract is up. Tough guy. Mauler, Road Grader, Big Bear etc.
We Draft at number #115 Greg Romeus DE/OLB Our first added number one Draft choice for 2012 if we have to red shirt him. Top fifteen pick if not with recovering from injury problems his senior year, as we did the same with Tate. Superb upside and he gets the playbook and system for his redshirt year.
We Draft #193 Bilal Powell RB. He is the compliment back to BJGE and Woodhead. Game breaker that Ben is not but bigger than Woodhead(plug in who you want here).
O.K. Now the BB withdrawal symptoms arrive for him for 2012. Rather than cold turkey, we know the CBA will be resolved (we hope) and trades or FA will happen. If we Draft Amukamura as a Safety which could happen, I see Merriweather or Sanders being moved as CAP (Sanders too much this year) or future CAP (Merriweather 2012 pending FA) issues to be resolved. He trades one of those or both to a Team that missed a Safety in this Draft. A Second for Merriweather would not be unrealistic with two pro bowls. Maybe a fifth for Sanders.
So BB adds a pick or two in 2012 and this happens after the new CBA. So as the NFL instructed, swapping Draft picks to 2012 was at your own risk. If the NFL Players win the law suit, the Draft as we know it, could be gone if Kessler has his way. Hence maybe BB should get off the Draft Trade Train in 2011.
Now if the CBA gets resolved after the Draft, I think BB will look at some FAs for a little diversity of experience in his young Team. He likes veteran RBs and perhaps this is why he does not go high for one in 2011. Willis McGahee is only 29. He is 235lbs and still has some rubber left on the tires. He should be rested in 2011 as he sat behind Rice. There is your high pick RB with Dillon size and a great pass blocker....we tend to overlook that.
At OLB to replace the weaker TBC, I think that Manny Lawson would be a perfect fit here. He has got length at 6'5", is fast and has become an excellent cover LB. He has pass rush ability but that is not how the Niners used him. He is only 26 and as we groom Quinn, we have a decent rotation of Cunningham and Ninkovitch with Quinn and Lawson.
Again BB likes vet WR. That is where we go. We need two actually. Tate had a whole year plus more and he is not the answer. We need a game breaker and he can look at FA Sidney Rice who will be expensive and is young, but as an alternative, Santana Moss, Chad or I like Steve Smith who can all stretch the field and when Branch gets hurt as he will we can have more flexibility. Mr. Felger, Moss back here could be an option (ha,ha). It killed us playoff time. Antone who disagrees would be wrong then, wouldn't they.
A couple of blue chippers, not late round guesses and some FA help while TB has years is where we all should be thinking, not three years down the road to develop the 17% success rate Draft pick.
BB, let's try upwards for a change. You like to show unpredictability. Here is a good shot.
Comments or suggestion?
Last edited by DW Toys; 04-18-2011 at 10:52 AM..