stinkypete

I've just done a little experiment. Outside of the top 20 or so, there is rarely any agreement as to who the top draft prospects are each year. Everybody has a favorite site they visit for rankings, each site has their favorite players, and each site completely misses a player who winds up going in round 2. I have tried to collect as many rankings as possible to reach a consensus top 100.

Attached is my attempt to find the consensus media opinions of the top prospects in this draft. To do this I imported the prospect rankings of 9 sites and/or "experts" (Mayock, Kiper, McShay, NFL Draft Countdown, Great Blue North, CBS, About.com, CDS and Yahoo) and found the mean ranking of each player. A player had to be ranked in at least 3 of the above sites in order to be considered.

The results are very interesting. If anything, they give a good indication as to where the value can be found. Some highlights...

-Cam Newton's average rank is #16. He's high potential and high upside, but I have a very hard time believing he goes #1 overall. Has there ever been a riskier #1 overall pick?

-Mel Kiper thinks Brooks Reed is a 1st rounder? Not one of the 9 sites I checked had him in their top 40, and his average ranking is 64.5. Jabaal Sheard is ranked significantly higher than Reed, and Sam Acho is not far behind.

-LSU DT Drake Nevis is ranked as high as #16 and as low as #120. How the hell does that happen? Likewise, Cameron Heyward is ranked as high as #23 and as low as #100.

-The Patriots position at #17 looks very good from a value standpoint. Someone from the group of Cameron Jordan, JJ Watt, Aldon Smith or Ryan Kerrigan will be available. I'd be happy with any of those 4.

-The Patriots position at #28 looks very poor from a value standpoint. There is a significant value dropoff after Akeem Ayers ( whom I don't love at 25th overall with an average rank of 25.2). Unless Mark Ingram falls, the guy picked at #28 will likely be a 2nd round talent. This is the pick to trade.

Attached Files

rankings.zip (14.7 KB, 33 views)

dryheat44

Interesting. Shows to go you that "professionals" are guessing along with the rest of us at this point.

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Irish Hooligan

I appreciate your efforts here sir, nice work! Interesting read.

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