Lamanai

Does anyone have access to past trades of very high draft picks. I wondered what kind of package a team could expect for say, a #5 pick. I mean based strictly on actual past trades. I know about the 'Draft Pick Value Charts', but there are too many questions about how it is put together. Here is one popular chart:

http://www.nfldraftcountdown.com/fea...aluechart.html


1. 3,000
2. 2,600
3. 2,200
4. 1,800
5. 1,700..???

I know that the relative value of players changes from year to year, but in this chart, why is the difference in value between the top picks about 400 points for picks 1 through 4, but only 100 points between 4 and 5? I wouldn't expect there to be a direct linear relationship, but why does it change so abruptly after pick 4? Just wondering...

patchick

I think you kind of have to throw the chart out for the very top picks. It's all about the specific names at that point. The year that the Giants were determined to get li'l Manning at all costs, the #1 was worth the 3000-pt trade valuation. The year that the 49ers had to swallow hard and shell out for Alex Smith, not even close.

This year there's no one QB everybody is drooling over, which makes the #1 a questionable value proposition. The big question mark is McFadden, a highly coveted player who shouldn't go #1 or #2 if the Dolphins and Rams stick in those spots. So a #3-4 pick might end up being the hot trading commodity.

Plus for teams that already have good talent they want to keep, picks in the 5-10 range may actually appeal more. (As I'm prone to swearing about, the #1 overall gets 4 times as much money as the #10 pick.) In the Pats case, if they end up with a super-high pick they'd likely trade down even if the value chart said they were getting taken to the cleaners.

borg

My hope for the SF pick, assuming that it is in the 4 or 5 range, is that BB trades down to the 9 or 10 spot and gains a 2nd rounder at 41 or 42. This second rounder will lesson the pain of the Goodell FJob. The charts say that the Pats may lose a couple hundred points with this trade and maybe BB can do better, but the salary savings would be significant.

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patsfaninpa

Patchick hit it correctly. The key will be is whether some team wants a qb. Hopefully, someone falls in love with M.Ryan. More specifically, a team picking 10-15. We can trade down. Get their 1 and 3 this year. Plus, their 1 next year.
Maybe, Baltimore or Carolina?

1 Miami - G. Dorsey
2 St. L - J. Long
3 NYJ - C. Long
4 NE TO ??
5 Oak - D.McFadden

patchick

OK...

OK, I see just 4 teams in desperate need of a young QB:

Atlanta
Minnesota
Chicago
Baltimore

You could argue for Green Bay too, or even San Diego, but not for these purposes

So let's say 2 of the 4 pick up a FA QB to take the heat off. (I'm watching Cleveland, which has its own version of the Brees-Rivers conundrum looming.) That leaves just 2 teams likely to take a QB in the top 20 picks. At this point, I can't see a scramble to trade up to the top 5 for that position.

patsfaninpa

I can see a scenario where a team will trade up. Let's say we pick 5th. Minny is sitting at 7th or 8th. Atlanta about 10th. You know Minny wants a qb and Petrino probably wants Brohm. Carolina, Baltimore and Chicago might decide M.Ryan is their guy. And, they want to trade up. McFadden is another player teams might trade up to get. I think a team like Houston might deal up for DMAC. They have a qb(Schaub), wr(A.Johnson) and have invested in their defense. Might look at McFadden as missing piece to that offense. I don't see a doom/gloom scenario with having a top 5 pick. We get an outstanding player or multiple picks.

patchick

Oh, I totally agree! I think there should be plenty of opportunity to trade down as long as they don't ask for the moon. I was just looking at the QBs in particular, since that's the most likely position to create a bidding war.

Interesting point on Brohm, though. If Petrino is extra-fixated on getting his own boy, that's a great scenario for a trade up.

rookBoston

I dont think QB is going to inspire any bidding wars, this year. Reason is that there are a ton of legit prospects coming out this year:

Ryan, Brohm, Woodson, Henne, Brennan, Booty... even Ainge. They all look the part. Any team with a need at QB can sit and wait, and choose from a bunch of good looking youngsters. Bidding war would only start after two or three teams fall in love with exactly one guy... and it has to be the same guy... and they have to know that the other teams want him too. I dont see it.

And especially after seeing quality QBs drop in the draft each of the last many years-- Rothlesberger, Rogers, Leinart, Quinn-- the myth that you cant pass up a franchise QB in the first round if you have a shot at him, is dead dead dead. Remember San Diego passed on Mike Vick at #1, and drafted Tomlinson. And how good does Jamarcus Russel look in an Oakland uni, right now?

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BelichickFan

There's also going to be some veterans like Pennington, maybe McNabb, maybe one of the Cleveland QB, maybe McNair (though he looks done), etc. Of all things, there almost seems like there could be a slight glut of QB this year.

mcbee

Raghib Ismael, remembe him? Or Russell Maryland?

The pats had the first pick in the draft and traded it down and they picked up very little.

With the slotting of rookie salaries if you can't find a superstar, it's almost worth it to pay to drop down.