My draft board

[patchick]

Originally Posted by Seneschal2

And let us not forget that not only do the Pats have their own value board, but have two other separate boards. One is a team needs board, and the other is a mock draft board. Yes, in order to manage our draft, it's crucial to anticipate other teams needs, moves, etc. (as been we can).

Hypothetically, if Team A needs a CB and selects one in the first, chances are they won't repeat the position in round two etc. But if they didn't select a CB YET, then the Pats will be expecting them to do so. This is how (and why) we move up or down to select a specific player.

It all begs to be programmed up as an expert system. Think teams do that these days? Then you could run dozens of simulations to determine whether, e.g., you'd have a better chance taking one of your LB targets in the 1st and trading down hoping to land one of your DBs in the 2nd, or vice versa.

[Box_O_Rocks]

Originally Posted by PonyExpress

Carriker probably won't be an impact 4-3 DE in the NFL due to speed issues. He might become a quality 4-3 end like Darrion Scott on the strong side for the Vikings. His best move is to DT. He is without question the most athletic DT in this draft. I count him on the same athletic level at DT as Bunkley and Castillo. But moving from 4-3 DE to 3-4 DE is a position change. It is harder to accomplish than moving from 4-3 DT to 3-4 DE, which I don't consider a true position change. Players who change positions usually need time to develop. So I think there is a little more risk with Carriker than others seem to, though his ceiling is higher than any other DT in this draft.

You assume he played what I've seen some call a "rush" DE, Adams and Anderson are two examples. According to my reading and viewing, Nebraska DL play what is being called a read & react defense, similar to the Patriots' gap control style. Carriker was not asked to pin his ears back and charge the QB, this led to his "surprising" performance in the Senior Bowl when he was turned loose by Monte Kiffin of Tampa-2 fame. From his DE slot, he engaged blockers, read the blocks and the backfield, then shed the blockers to make tackles. It helps explain my own Carriker bias in this draft, I firmly believe he is the best "fit" for the Patriots' system, regardless of need, due to his experience in Nebraska's reported scheme.

[PonyExpress]

Originally Posted by Box_O_Rocks

You assume he played what I've seen some call a "rush" DE, Adams and Anderson are two examples. According to my reading and viewing, Nebraska DL play what is being called a read & react defense, similar to the Patriots' gap control style. Carriker was not asked to pin his ears back and charge the QB, this led to his "surprising" performance in the Senior Bowl when he was turned loose by Monte Kiffin of Tampa-2 fame. From his DE slot, he engaged blockers, read the blocks and the backfield, then shed the blockers to make tackles. It helps explain my own Carriker bias in this draft, I firmly believe he is the best "fit" for the Patriots' system, regardless of need, due to his experience in Nebraska's reported scheme.

Carriker played in a read and react defense as the base end in a 4-3 scheme. I don't believe the Nebraska Base end lines up in the 5 technique and minds the A and B gaps. If not, this is a major adjustment for a college 4-3 DE. Also, if 3-4 teams want to take advantage of his quickness and pass rush ability they may want him to play the weak side, which is another adjustment. I believe Carriker can do it, if brought along slowly. If he is thrown into it and expected to flourish immediately by some goofy team in the teens, with the pressure of a high pick, they are inviting risk, increasing the chance of injury during the adjustment period. He would impact most quickly as a strong side 4-3 DE, because he is used to it, but will never be a star there. He can be a star as a 3-4 DE. but I don;t think it will be immediate and there could be some early struggles. But I agree with you, CArriker has the most upside of any DT prospect on this draft and the perfect team for him would be the Pats, who know how to develop 3-4 ends. If they draft Carriker, I would resign Warren and trade Seymour next offseason.

[DW Toys]

Originally Posted by rookBoston

I cant do justice to the full draft class, the way BOR did in his post. But here's one man's opinion on value for the Pats:

Grouping #1 - Elite
could never be drafted by the Patriots under any circumstance
WR Calvin Johnson, magical
RB Adrian Peterson
OT Joe Thomas, although not a need

Grouping #2 - Out of Reach
will be gone by #13 overall... out of reach

DT/NT Alan Branch, fits our scheme as a NT, which is rare enough
DE/DT Amobi Okoye, the kind of guy that BB can turn into a star
LB Patrick Willis, I've been hot and cold about Willis, but I cant explain why I'd hesitate. Anyway, he's out of reach.

Note: Jamaal Anderson isn't on my board-- dont see him as a fit in our scheme with 1st round value

Grouping #3 - Trade up
Worth trading to #19 (=#24 + #91), if they fall that far

SS Laron Landry, overhyped, but worth it at this point
DE Adam Carricker, love this kid and he truly fits the scheme

Grouping #4 - Value at #24
solid starter

SS Michael Griffin, my favorite DB in the draft hands down, honors student, a star on both D and ST, solid against the run
LB David Harris, great fit for the scheme
CB Leon Hall, solid value at #24
CB Aaron Ross, reminds me of Hobbs but stronger
RB Brian Leonard, I believe in this kid like few others in this draft. Great size, hands, body control
WR Anthony Gonzalez, has all the success factors required in a Belichick receiver
LB Jon Beason, versatility is key, reads a bit like Jonathan Vilma

Grouping #5 - Value at #28
a cut below Grouping #4, but still expect these guys to be quality starters for us by Year 2

CB Darrell Revis, doesn't look as quick as Hall or Ross
TE Greg Olsen, yeah, I know
S Eric Weddle, way underrated two way player... who else has 18 INTs?
LB Paul Posluszny, I dont buy all the negative hype; I heard the same unattributable schlock about Larry Johnson
OC Ryan Kalil, although not a need
OT Joe Staley, although not a need
OLB Lamarr Woodley, should be getting more love as a first rounder
OLB Anthony Spencer, athleticism and size

Grouping #6 - Interesting, but only in a trade down
slightly risky, but have starting potential. Worth a shot in the early 2nd.

OLB Tim Crowder, in the McGinest mold
LB Brandon Siler, size, speed, attitude, productivity... very underappreciated
LB/S Justin Durant, I think BB could play him at SS as a rookie... shades of Don Davis
LB Stewart Bradley, size matters... maybe has some Ted Johnson in him
OL Arron Sears, versatility counts extra... fitness is my concern
FS Brandon Meriweather, wont last long enough for me to think of him as value
WR Sidney Rice, I dunno... something about him I like. So smooth, so natural.


So, of course, expect BB/SP to draft two guys not on my board. Only one thing I'll bet the farm on: they wont take Reggie Nelson.

Good Job.
DW Toys

[mgteich]

Great job! Of course, that means that it agrees closely with my views, except for the 2nd rounders. I would switch the positions of Pos and Leonard, but I could be convinced that you are correct.

And now for the hard part, your value list for #91.

[rookBoston]

Originally Posted by mgteich

And now for the hard part, your value list for #91.

Would be nice, but I'm unable to do it justice. Ever since the Welker trade, I haven't been researching past the mid-40s.

[Spirit of '76]

Question..........What's the highest the Pats could go if they were to pkg #24 & #28??

[Brady to Brown]

Originally Posted by Spirit of '76

Question..........What's the highest the Pats could go if they were to pkg #24 & #28??

Who knows, Belichick is saying that trading up this year is a deal.

[mgteich]

The book says 8.

Originally Posted by Spirit of '76

Question..........What's the highest the Pats could go if they were to pkg #24 & #28??