Maybe I'm overthinking this, but...

The 2006 draft was widely regarded as one of the deepest ever.

Heading into the 2006 draft the Patriots let a ton of veterans go, and by my count 10 rookies ended the year on the roster or IR. 10!

The 2007 draft is regarded as weak in comparison. Just look at a guy like David Thomas, who was considered just barely good value at the bottom of the 3rd. This year he'd quite likely be the #2 TE off the board in the 2nd round.

Heading into the 2007 draft, the Patriots have gone on a free agent signing spree, including trading picks for vets.

The trick is, last year's vet purge leaves the team with a bunch of (untradeable) comp picks in this weak draft. Next year, we have to assume 0 comp picks. So what does the 2008 draft look like? If 2008 projects to be another banner crop, that has to affect the team's draft strategy. I'd expect some aggressive trading away of picks toward next year.

Anybody have an early read on 2008?

I would agree with you. I expect 2-3 trades down or out into next year.

Here is a link that includes Mel Kiper's top-5 by position for '08 (I know, I know, this is Mel Kiper...). It is subscription only. I'll look for another link. @ a quick glance, I could definitely see the posibility of 4 1st round qbs-
"1. Brian Brohm, Louisville
2. Chad Henne, Michigan
3. Colt Brennan, Hawaii
4. John David Booty, USC"

__________________
""Patriotism is the last refuge of a scoundrel"
Samuel Johnson

It would depend on the underclassmen that declare. That always make a draft class stronger or weaker depending who and how many declare.

This years WR's is considered stronger than last years. This years CB's are considred weaker, safeties are stronger. this years ILB is consider stronger, OLB weaker.

So, it depends on what you are looking for. Weaker in some areas - stronger in others.

__________________

To view links or images in signatures your post count must be 10 or greater. You currently have 0 posts.


To view links or images in signatures your post count must be 10 or greater. You currently have 0 posts.

To view links or images in signatures your post count must be 10 or greater. You currently have 0 posts.

To view links or images in signatures your post count must be 10 or greater. You currently have 0 posts.

Here is an early 2-round '08 mock.
http://walterfootball.com/draft2008.php
Like the nut said, it is a little hard to get a read on the depth of the draft w/o knowing the underclassmen.

__________________
""Patriotism is the last refuge of a scoundrel"
Samuel Johnson

Fair point. But here's my spectrum of how I'd stack up 2007 vis a vis 2006:

MUCH stronger:
WR
S
Somewhat stronger:
ILB
Tossup:
OT
DT
OG
Somewhat weaker:
CB
RB
C
DE
MUCH weaker:
QB
TE
OLB

That speaks to the concensus that this year's Draft is overall weaker. Thanks for coloring up my thoughts.

You are right on the money. That is why I have been thinking more about trading out of #28 if we can and see if we can nail Gonzales in the 2nd.

Or, if Willis falls below 15, see if we can trade 24 & 28 and take Willis and a 2nd rounder for Gonzales. These are not he only ones, but they are the most "Patriots type" players that fit, in the top 50.

__________________

To view links or images in signatures your post count must be 10 or greater. You currently have 0 posts.


To view links or images in signatures your post count must be 10 or greater. You currently have 0 posts.

To view links or images in signatures your post count must be 10 or greater. You currently have 0 posts.

To view links or images in signatures your post count must be 10 or greater. You currently have 0 posts.

I think you are over analyzing it to some degree, not in a bad way. I see you like the draft, as do I but it is only one piece of the puzzle. For 2008 they likely see Samuel as a priority (if he plays under the Franchise in 07) and maybe extending Warren a year early other than that they could use some youth at LB and S but are in really great shape.

They must factor these things in but drafts are hard to predict due to early declarations, injuries, etc. If you look at this years draft, it is touted as being deep at WR yet they are pursuing veterans very aggressively. In relative terms they also do not look to add a superstar with every draft pick or FA, in most years the talent for specific groups is likely only different at the top, most of the middle round players should be very similar.

I think the comp picks are a little overrated, most of them are late rounds 5, 6, 7. These picks are important because they allow you to trade your existing picks easier but I don't think rosters are consistently built with the 199th pick. After round 5 it has to be less than 50% even make an NFL team.

The Patriots prefer vets over rookies (all things being equal) but also understand that 4 years of low salaries allows them to sign more veterans.

They likely have a very detailed 1 year plan (names, positions, etc.), pretty solid 2 year plan and general 3 & 4 year plans. As they move forward the plans are adjusted but no two rosters, drafts or free agencies can ever be the same.

Look at these numbers, amazing the turnover in the NFL.
http://www.patscap.com/futureyears.html

Some numbers
Signed through 2008 - 32 players
Signed through 2009 - 23 players
Signed through 2010 - 5 players - The good news is we are 102M under the cap.

All good points. And I do think that the focus of this year's draft is really 2008. Look at the current starters who may well be gone after this year:

Defense: Wilson, Samuel, Bruschi, Harrison
Offense: Caldwell, Gaffney

If you're drafting for need, that's your prime need list right there. Conveniently, 4 of the 5 players play the 3 positions that are strong in this year's draft.