PonyExpress

Review of the 2003 Draft

What team really had the best draft in 2003? One way to figure that out is to use the Trade Value Chart. The Chart assigns a number, like a price, to every draft slot. When a team uses its pick it is an “expense”. In theory each team goes into the draft with a “budget” of points, an unequal budget due to the inverse order of selection used by the NFL to promote parity.
Three years after the 2003 draft, how would the same players be redrafted? If we could rank them by real value, then we could assign a new “point value” to each player per the Trade Value Chart. By adding up the new “real values” of each team’s old picks, we could then figure out which teams got the most total value out of the draft, and which had the best net value. That should tell us which teams were helped most by the 2003 draft, and which teams draft best.

Assumptions.

1. The Trade Value Chart, which NFL teams use as a guide for transactions during the NFL Draft, assigns a reasonable relative value to draft picks.

2. It usually takes about three years after a draft to judge the real value of an NFL player. There are notable exceptions, but by and large the “three year rule” holds true.

3. The 2006 Sporting News Scouting Guide is a respectable publication and its player rankings and grading system are more carefully considered than the opinions of average fans.

Terms

Trade Value Chart: The chart designed by Jimmy Johnson and adopted as a guide by most NFL teams. Used to facilitate transactions involving draft picks. Values are assigned to each draft position on a diminishing scale. http://www.nfl.com/draft/story/6330687

Draft Day Value: draft day values assigned to a team’s draft picks, according to the Trade Value Chart.

Total Draft Day Value: The sum of a team’s individual draft day values.

Real Value: The actual value of a player 3 years after being drafted. This real value is achieved by ranking players of a given draft 3 years later, using the Sporting News Scouting Guide grading system, and then assigning a point value to those players according to the Trade Value Chart. Note: When players are tied in TSN’s grading system, the tie is broken in the following order of priority (1) QB (2) DE (3) CB (4) OT (5) WR (6) DT (7) RB (8) LB (9) TE (10) OG/C (11) S (12) K (13) FB

Total Real Value: The sum of a team’s individual real values

Net Real Value: Total Real Value minus Total Draft Day Value

I. The 2003 Draft
Here are all 262 selections of the 2003 draft, in order: http://www.nfl.com/draft/history/years/2003

II. Total Draft Day Value by team
Here were the 2003 draft picks per team, with individual draft day values and total draft value:
1. Cincinnati: 1 (3000), 33(580), 65(265), 98(108), 118(58), 136(38), 174(21.8), 215(5.4)= 4076.2
2. Detroit: 2(2600), 34(560), 66(260), 99(104), 137(37.5), 144(34), 175(21.4), 216(5), 220(3.4), 236(1), 260(1)=3627.3
3. Houston: 3(2200), 41(490), 67(255), 75(215), 88(150), 101(96), 192(14.6), 214(5.8), 217(4.6), 233(1)=3432
4. Chicago: 14(1100), 22(780), 35(550), 68(250), 100(100), 116(62), 139(36.5), 143(34.5), 171(23), 191(15), 206(9), 261(1)=2961
5. Dallas: 5(1700), 38(520), 69(245), 103(88), 178(20.2), 186(17), 219(3.8)=2594
6. Balt: 10(1300), 19(875), 77(205), 109(76), 134(39), 146(33), 182(18.6), 223(2.3), 250(1), 258(1)=2550.9
7. Ariz: 17(950), 18(900), 54(360), 70(240), 141(35.5), 177(20.6), 210(7.4)=2513.5
8. Jacksonville: 7(1500), 39(510), 72(230), 104(86), 132(40), 176(21), 179(19.8), 193(14.2), 218(4.2)=2425.2
9. NO: 6(1600), 37(530), 86(160), 102(92), 155(29.4), 203(10.2), 231(1)=2422.6
10. NYJ: 4(1800), 53(370), 85(165), 140(36), 150(31.4), 200(11.4), 237(1)=2414.8
11. Carolina: 8(1400), 50(400), 76(210), 82(180), 119(56), 145(33.5), 247(1)=2280.5
12. NE: 13(1150), 36(540), 45(450), 120(54), 164(25.8), 201(11), 234(1), 239(1), 243(1)=2233.8
13. Minn: 9(1350), 40(500), 71(235), 105(84), 180(19.4), 190(15.4), 221(3)=2206.8
14. StL: 12(1200), 43(470), 74(220), 106(82), 107(80), 148(32.2), 170(23.4), 172(22.6), 184(17.8), 251(1), 254(1)=2150
15. Seattle: 11(1250), 42(480), 73(225), 110(74), 165(25.4), 183(18.2), 224(2)=2074.6
16. Oakland: 31(600), 32(590), 63(276), 83(175), 96(116), 129(43), 167(24.6), 204(9.8), 246(1), 262(1)=1836.4
17. SD: 30(620), 46(440), 62(284), 80(190), 112(70), 149(31.8), 188(16.2), 229(1)=1653
18. Phil: 15(1050), 61(292), 95(120), 131(41), 185(17.4), 244(1)=1521.4
19. Denver: 20(850), 51(390), 108(78), 114(66), 128(44), 157(28.6), 158(28.2), 194(13.8), 227(1), 235(1)=1500.6
20. Cleve: 21(800), 52(380), 84(170), 115(64), 142(35), 152(30.6), 195(13.4)=1493
21. Buff: 23(760), 48(420), 94(124), 111(72), 127(45), 151(31), 187(16.6), 228(1)=1469.6
22. Pitt: 16(1000), 59(310), 125(47), 163(26.2), 242(1)=1384.2
23. Indy: 24(740), 58(320), 90(140), 122(50), 138(37), 162(26.6), 198(12.2), 208(8.2)=1334
24. SF: 26(760), 57(330), 89(145), 124(48), 161(27), 197(12.6), 241(1)=1323.6
25. NYG: 25(720), 56(340), 91(136), 123(49), 160(27.4), 199(11.8), 207(8.6), 211(7), 240(1), 249(1), 255(1)=1302.8
26. KC: 27(680), 47(430), 113(68), 153(30.2), 189(15.8), 230(1), 252(1)=1226
27. Ten: 28(660), 60(300), 93(128), 126(46), 154(29.8), 225(1)=1164.8
28. GB: 29(640), 79(195), 147(32.6), 166(25), 212(6.6), 245(1), 253(1), 256(1), 257(1)=903.2
29. Miami: 49(410), 78(200), 87(155), 156(29), 169(23.8), 181(19), 209(7.8), 213(6.2), 248(1)=851.8
30. Wash: 44(460), 81(185), 232(1)=646
31. TB: 64(270), 97(112), 133(39.5), 168(24.2), 205(9.4)=455.1
32. Atl: 55(350), 121(52), 196(13), 202(10.6), 238(1)=426.6

PonyExpress

III. The 2006 preseason Redraft of players from the 2003 draft, with The Sporting News player grades.

Grade key:
10.0-9.0: rare player
8.9-8.0: outstanding player
7.9-7.5: solid starter
7.4-7.0: good starter
6.9-6.5: adequate starter
6.4-6.0: marginal starter/good backup
5.9-5.5: adequate backup
5.4-5.0: marginal backup

below 5.0 a player has no real value

Real rank. Team. Name. Grade. Real value points.
1. KC L. Johnson 9.6 (3000)
2. Cin Carson Palmer 9.5 (2600)
3. Pitt Polamalu 9.5 (2200)
4. Min Williams 9.2 (1800)
5. Ar Boldin 8.9 (1700)
6. NYG Umenyiora 8.7 (1600)
7. Chi Briggs 8.6 (1500)
8. Dal Witten 8.5 (1400)
9. Pitt Taylor 8.4 (1350)
10. Hou A Johnson 8.4 (1300)
11. Cin Steinbach 8.3 (1250)
12. JK Mathis 8.0 (1200)
13. NE Samuel 8.0 (1150)
14. STL Tinoisamoa 8.0 (1100)
15. NE Warren 7.9 (1050)
16. Dal Newman 7.9 (1000)
17. Sea Trufant 7.9 (950)
18. STL Curtis 7.9 (900)
19. STL Kennedy 7.9 (875)
20. GB Barnett 7.9 (850)
21. NE Wilson 7.9 (800)
22. JK Leftwich 7.8 (780)
23. SD Florence 7.7 (760)
24. Buff McGee 7.7 (740)
25. Den Foster 7.7 (720)
26. KC Mitchell 7.7 (700)
27. Ind Doss 7.7 (680)
28. Chi Tillman 7.6 (660)
29. Phi Smith 7.6 (640)
30. TB Simms 7.5 (620)
31. Buff McGahee 7.5 (600)
32. Ind Clark 7.5 (590)
33. Det Bailey 7.5 (580)
34. Ind Mathis 7.4 (560)
35. Car Gross 7.4 (550)
36. Hou Davis 7.4 (540)
37. Dal James 7.4 (530)
38. NYJ Robertson 7.3 (520)
39. Chi Scott 7.3 (510)
40. Dal Johnson 7.3 (500)
41. Car Manning 7.2 (490)
42. Cin Johnson 7.2 (480)
43. Oak Asomugha 7.2 (470)
44. SD Kiel 7.2 (460)
45. Wash Dockery 7.2 (450)
46. Sea Brown 7.2 (440)
47. SF Adams 7.1 (430)
48. Cle Faine 7.1 (420)
49. Sea Hamlin 7.1 (410)
50. Balt Suggs 7.0 (400)
51. Min Burleson 7.0 (390)
52. SF Lloyd 7.0 (380)
53. Ind June 7.0 (370)
54. NE Koppen 7.0 (360)
55. NYG Diehl 7.0 (350)
56. Ari Wells 7.0 (340)
57. Cle Crocker 7.0 (330)
58. Buf Kelsay 6.9 (320)
59. Det Redding 6.9 (310)
60. Sea Hunter 6.9 (300)
61. NYG Joseph 6.9 (292)
62. Cle Thompson 6.9 (284)
63. Hou Peek 6.9 (276)
64. JK Wrightster 6.9 (270)
65. JK Green 6.8 (265)
66. Oak Brayton 6.8 (260)
67. Min Henderson 6.8 (255)
68. NYJ Hobson 6.8 (250)
69. Buf Crowell 6.8 (245)
70. Car Seidman 6.8 (240)
71. SD Scifres 6.8 (235)
72. Atl Griffith 6.8 (230)

PonyExpress

73. Bal Boller 6.7 (225)
74. Chi Gage 6.7 (220)
75. Ten Long 6.7 (215)
76. TB Mahan 6.7 (210)
77. Mia Bell 6.7 (205)
78. Ten Woolfolk 6.6 (200)
79. NO Sullivan 6.6 (195)
80. JK Toefield 6.6 (190)
81. Chi Grossman 6.5 (185)
82. SD Davis 6.5 (180)
83. SF Harris 6.5 (175)
84. NO Stinchcomb 6.5 (170)
85. NYG Walter 6.5 (165)
86. Ten Brown 6.5 (160)
87. STL Shanle 6.5 (155)
88. Mia Lee 6.5 (150)
89. JK Manuwai 6.4 (145)
90. Atl Scott 6.4 (140)
91. Cle Suggs 6.3 (136)
92. Bal Pashos t 6.2 (132)
93. Det Davis lb 6.2 (128)
94. Oak Johnson te 6.2 (124)
95. NO Holland g 6.2 (120)
96. TB White de 6.1 (116)
97. KC Wilkerson de 6.1 (112)
98. GB Johnson cb 6.1 (108)
99. Ari Johnson wr 6.1 (104)
100. NYJ Bollinger qb 6.0 (100)
101. STL Cox cb 6.0 (96)
102. Hou Wand t 6.0 (92)
103. Det Rogers wr 6.0 (88)
104. Ten Calico wr 6.0 (86)
105. Cin Washington wr 6.0 (84)
106. STL McDonald wr 6.0 (82)
107. Oak Gabriel wr 6.0 (80)
108. SF Battle wr 6.0 (78)
109. NYG Tyree wr 6.0 (76)
110. Car Moorehead dt 6.0 (74)
111. NE Kelley dt 6.0 (72)
112. GB Hillenmeyer lb 6.0 (70)
113. NE Banta-Cain lb 6.0 (68)
114. SD Wilhelm lb 6.0 (66)
115. Cle Pontbriand c 6.0 (64)
116. Bal Sapp c 6.0 (62)
117. Cin Kooistra g 6.0 (60)
118. Car Branch s 6.0 (58)
119. SD Milligan s 6.0 (56)
120. KC Battle cb 5.9 (54)
121. KC Black t 5.9 (52)
122. Oak Fargas rb 5.9 (50)
123. NYG Shiancoe te 5.9 (49)
124. NYJ Askew fb 5.9 (48)
125. NO Williams de 5.7 (47)
126. GB Peterson de 5.6 (46)
127. NE Johnson wr 5.7 (45)
128. NE Klecko dt 5.7 (44)
129. Sea Moore dt 5.7 (43)
130. Bal Smith rb 5.7 (42)
131. Det Pinner rb 5.7 (41)
132. Den Griffin rb 5.7 (40)
133. Hou Ragone qb 5.5 (39.5)
134. Phi McDougle de 5.5 (39)
135. Phi Green de 5.3 (38.5)
136. Sf Williams de 5.3 (38)
137. SD Van Buren t 5.5 (37.5)
138. Was Jacobs wr 5.5 (37)
139. Ari Hayes lb 5.5 (36.5)
140. Sea Wallace wr 5.4 (36)
141. Mia Whitley g 5.4 (35.5)
142. Den Claxton g 5.3 (35)
143. Det Adams cb 5.2 (34.5)
144. Buf Sape dt 5.2 (34)
145. NYJ Yovanavits g 5.2 (33.5)
146. Det Holt s 5.2 (33)
147. SF Dorsey qb 5.1 (32.6)
148. Ari Pace de 5.1 (32.2)
149. Dal Tucker cb 5.1 (31.8)
150. NYG Ponder wr 5.1 (31.4)
151. Atl Veal dt 5.1 (31)
152. Pit St. Pierre qb 5.0 (30.6)
153. Den Eason de 5.0 (30.2)
154. Den McNeal de 5.0 (29.8)
155. Oak Pierson de 5.0 (29.4)
156. NYJ Walters de 5.0 (29)
157. Cin Patterson de 5.0 (28.6)
158. Den Mitchell de 5.0 (28.2)
159. Ind Strickland cb 5.0 (27.8)
160. Det Kircus wr 5.0 (27.4)
161. Hou Wright dt 5.0 (27)
162. Det Johnson dt 5.0 (26.6)
163. Ind Whiteside lb 5.0 (26.2)
164. Pitt Jackson lb 5.0 (25.8)
165. Bal Smith te 5.0 (25.4)
166. Bal Mabry g 5.0 (25)
167. Ind Sciullo g 5.0 (24.6)
168. StL Tercero g 5.0 (24.2)
169. Min Johnson k 5.0 (23.8)

PonyExpress

IV. Total Real Value from the 2003 Draft by team
1. Cin 4502.6
2. KC 3918
3. Pitt 3606.4
4. NE 3589
5. Dal 3461.8
6. STL 3232.2
7. Chi 3075
8. JK 2705
9. Min 2618.8
10. NYG 2563.4
11. Ind 2278.6
12. Hou 2274.5
13. Ari 2212.7
14. Sea 2179
15. Buf 1939
16. SD 1794.5
17. Car 1412
18. Det 1268.5
19. Cle 1234
20. SF 1133.6
21. GB 1074
22. Oak 1013.4
23. NYJ 980.5
24. TB 946
25. Bal 911.4
26. Den 883.2
27 Phi 717.5
28. Ten 661
29. NO 532
30. Was 487
31. Atl 401
32. Mia 390.5


V. Net Value (Real Value – Draft Day Value)
1. KC 2692
2. Pitt 2222.2
3. NE 1355.2
4. NYG 1260.6
5. STL 1082.2
6. Ind 944.6
7. Dal 867.8
8. Cin 426.4
9. TB 490.9
10. Min 412
11. JK 279.8
12. GB 170.8
13. SD 141.5
14. Chi 114
15. Sea 104.4
16. Atl -25.6
17. Buf -135.6
18 Was -159
19. SF -190
20. Cle -259
21. Ari -300.8
22. Mia -461.3
23. Ten -503.8
24. Den -617.4
25. Phi -803.9
26. Oak -823
27. Car -868.5
28. Hou -1157.5
29. NYJ -1434.3
30. Bal -1639.5
31. NO -1890.6
32. Det -2358.8

VI. A Final Note
The Sporting News rankings were from a 2006 preseason publication. At the time, Ike Taylor of the Steelers was considered better than Asante Samuel; Eric Steinbach better than Ty Warren; Jeff Faine better than Dan Koppen. After 6 games in the 2006 season, all those assumptions seem dubious. There are good arguments that perhaps the 4 year rule is better, as Wrs and QBs take longer to mature. However, after 4 years, early contributions, like those of Bethel Johnson, have already been diminished and later rd draft picks frequently have already moved on from their original teams.

cstjohn17

Great stuff, just fantastic. Thank you for putting all this together.

cstjohn17

Pony, is there a way to tell who were the best picks of the draft? ie. the lowest draft chart value compared to the actual points? just curious

PonyExpress

Absolutely. currently in the works.

HAMMERMILL

Great Job thanks.
Love this stuff.

GoWesleyan

Cool Analysis but unfortunately I can't buy the assumptions. Specifically, "1. The Trade Value Chart, which NFL teams use as a guide for transactions during the NFL Draft, assigns a reasonable relative value to draft picks. "

The trade value chart is the relative worth of draft slots on draft day. I think that that is different than what the relative worth of players is when ranked.
The value of a top draft choice is based on probabilities and also - I think - on the PR benefit of signing a top guy (Top ten picks generate excitement and fill seats. The top pick, especially, gets pub for the team.)

If you look at the relative worth of the #1 (3000 -Larry Johnson), for example, is he really worth more to his team than 5 players that are worth 600 points (Willis MacGahee)? I know I'd much much rather have 5 players of MacGahee's caliber. But that's just one example: What about 3 worth a thousand? Another way to look at how this valuation is problematic: Is every top player of every draft worth the exact same? Is the difference in value after three years always on this same valuation curve? I think not.

It's a worthy goal to figure this stuff out 3 years out... I wish there were a website that covered draft follow up analysis like this stuff... but I think this methodology is lacking.

Thanks for the effort in any case. It's an interesting read.

__________________
Felger: Just looking at it on paper...

BB: What difference does it make? What is paper? You're going to put my paper out there against Buffalo's paper?

SeanBruschi54

Wow great analysis. Im sure there are figures every year that show the Pats do a top ten job at drafting every season.