rookBoston

This year feels like 2003 to me, for two major reasons: first, the draft class will be deep at most positions and solid at the top and second, because the Pats have 9 well spaced selections (plus Compensatory for Andruzzi and Patten) to play with.

2003 was a special year for Pat fan draftniks because BB/SP moved up and down the board with incredible precision.

With that in mind, I decided to spend a little time thinking about who our most likely trading partners would be in the first.


Picks 1 thru 12 - Out of Range
To get to #12, we would need to trade #21, #52 and #75. Three players for one is just not something BB would ever do. The alternative would be to trade #21 and our 2007 first round pick, but again I just cant see that being worth it.

Picks higher than #12 become exponentially more expensive.

Conclusion: Impossible.



#13 - Baltimore, #14 - Philly
What would it take?
For the Pats, trading into this range would cost the 2nd rounder, which means that it needs to be an exceptional opportunity.

Why would we do it?
Who would make it worthwhile to trade that high? If Haloti Ngata drops past the Browns (which is completely impossible), then shifting Wilfork to DE would be a solution to the Seymour contract situation. And if he's really all that then mybe AJ Hawk might be worth it. But other than that, I dont see any credible scenarios where trading up this high makes a lot of sense for the Pats. We'd have trading partners, but what's the bait?

Why would they do it?
At #21 Baltimore has a number of needs and they traded their 3rd to the Pats last year. They might want to trade back a bit and recover that pick. At #13, they may have a shot at RB Lendale White or RB Deangelo Williams, but at #21, they would be looking at QB Omar Jacobs, RB Lawrence Maroney or OT Winston Justice... plus an extra Day One pick.

For the Eagles, looking for WR, OT, DL, #14 gives them a shot at Tamba Hali.. but it's too early for Santonio Holmes, Chad Jackson, Broderick Bunkley. Any of those players would be better selections at #21.

Conclusion: Highly unlikely



#15 - Atlanta, #16 - Miami
What would it take?
Trades into this range would cost the Pats their early 3rd rounder, and maybe a Day Two pick to sweeten the deal. Reasonable if it's a player that we really like.

Why would we do it?
Well, if BB thinks Huff is a player, that could be an attraction. If Greenway or Deangelo Williams drop that far, it might be worthwhile moving up.

Also, if the impossible happens, #15 is as far Vernon Davis would have to fall before I'd be willing to add a 3rd first rounder onto the roster at TE. It's absolutely not a need, but Davis is ridiculously good and Graham will be a UFA soon enough.

(It seems silly to even mention Davis at #15 because it just seems absurd that he'd drop... but here's the thinking: there are so many good TEs this year, if multiple teams decide to wait until the 2nd round to fill their TE needs, then maybe Davis suffers for it. It's positional deflation. Where there's lots of supply, prices drop.)

Why would they do it?
Needs are mostly defensive for both Atlanta and Miami, plus QB for Miami if there's one available. If they stay put, they should have a shot at DB Michael Huff. But #21 would be a better place to draft either Ko Simpson or Darnell Bing. They could try for DE Tamba Hali at #15/16, or trade back to #21 for Kiwanuka or Kamerion Wimbly.

For their parts, I think Atlanta and Miami would be happy to trade back and get the additional pick(s).

Conclusion: Long shot. It would take someone very special to fall.



#17-20 Vikings, Cowboys, Chargers, Chiefs
What would it take?
We could trade #21 and our late 3rd rounder, and expect a Day Two pick in exchange. Very reasonable.

Why would we do it?
Chad Greenway, Deangelo Williams, Jimmy Williams (if SP likes him), Lendale White... really anyone who we think has the makings of a rookie starter, where we cant afford to risk that player not lasting until #21. Even Bobby Carpenter or Manny Lawson (two of my favorites) may be worth trading up for if they grade out well in our system and the dropoff after they're gone is too high.

Why would they do it?
#21 is the first reasonable place for Santonio Holmes or Chad Jackson.

The compensation package seems kinda thin, to me. The only situation where I could see a deal is if one of these teams (the Vikes, maybe) have set their minds on spending their first rounder at WR.

Conclusion: Possible, but not compelling.



#22-25 Broncos, Bucs, Bengals, Giants
What would it take?
The Pats would get a Day Two pick and/or a Day Two swap, like our 5th for their mid-4th.

Why would we do it?
Let's say we have three of four players that grade out basically the same, good but flawed in some way: need to learn a new position in our system, or a little raw. Suppose our draft board is Manny Lawson, Richard Marshall, Chad Jackson and Bobby Carpenter... all would probably be successful for us, but we have late 1st/early 2nd round grades for each. If someone makes an offer, trading back a few spots seems pretty low risk.

Why would they do it?
They love someone. This is a small price to land a specific first rounder that you really like. BB would do it, I think.

I dont really see anything that might tempt the Broncs would trade up one spot. They have two first rounders, and a fairly different set of needs from the Pats. If they wanted to make sure of Chad Jackson, wouldn't they move ahead of San Diego to do it?

Supposing that the Bucs are looking at CB and OT, they're probably happy where they are. They're in a good spot for OL. The only trade scenario I could imagine is if the Bucs want CB Tye Hill or CB Cromartie and they're worried that Pats might take him themselves (Denver certainly wont).

The scenario that might make the Bengals trade up is if they think the Pats are going to take Darnell Bing or Ko Simpson off the board. They need a SS, and if they fall in love with either one, a small trade up is not out of the question.

For the Giants, the most probably trade up scenario (just like the Bucs) is if they want to take Tye Hill or Cromartie to replace Will Allen. Trading to #21 gets them in front of Tampa, and takes New England, who might be thinking CB too, out of the equation. Not too impossible, if they think either of those CBs are truly special. Of course, they could always sit still and take Ashton Youboty or Richard Marshall at #25.

Conclusion: Broncos, no. The rest?... maybe.



#26-28 Chicago, Carolina, Jacksonville
What would it take?
The Pats would earn a late 3rd rounder, and might give a Day Two pick back in loose change. Or, the Pats could trade their early 3rd for a mid-late 2nd rounder.

Why would we do it?
The late 20s seem like a fair place to take Bobby Carpenter (assuming he gets past the Giants), or Richard Marshall. Kiwanuka is great value this deep in the first.

Why would they do it?
For Carolina and Chicago: wide receiver. #21 is probably a good place to make sure of the top receiver in the draft, whether that's Holmes or Jackson or (less likely) Moss. Holmes could be the Mushin Muhammad replacement that the Panthers need opposite Smith. And Chicago needs depth urgently.

For Jacksonville, I think the best story is to land a top TE like Pope.

Conclusion: Plausible. Seems reasonable for all parties involved.



#29-32 Indianapolis, Seattle, Pittsburgh
What would it take?
The Pats earn a late 2nd rounder, and (by the book) would probably owe a late Day Two pick to make up the difference.

Why would we do it?
We just dont think there are players with first round grades at #21. Either that, or the teams over-compensate us to a degree where it's simply impossible to say no.

Why would they do it?
Indy probably needs to replace James, and if they think they need to move up to land White or Moroney, that could be the solution.

Seattle needs to upgrade Stevens with a real TE, and someone like Leonard Pope may not be a bad idea at #21. Also, a SS like Darnell Bing may deserve a trade up, if they really like him.

Pittsburgh would be looking WR to replace Plaxico and Randall-El or RB to backfill for Jerome Bettis. If Lendale White is available at #21, I think the Steelers might offer BB a sweet package to land him.

Conclusion: Plausible, but our trading partner needs to fall in love first.



#33-40 Houston, New Orleans, Jets, Packers, Niners, Raiders, Titans Lions
What would it take?
The Pats trade #21 for the early 2nd and early 3rd rounders. Considering that we're talking about Houston, New Orleans, the Jets, etc... that option seems really absurd. Those teams cant afford to trade up.

Far more likely, the Pats trade up using their 2nd and one of the 3rd rounders.

Why would we do it?
Trading up in the 2nd would be a matter of picking up a player we like, maybe someone that we were interested in at #21, but let pass. For example, if we chose Carpenter over Marshall at #21, and Marshall was still on the board in the 30s... well then, it's worth spending a 3rd rounder to get both of them.

We have the picks to spare, and only a few key needs. Depending on who BB's targeting, waiting till #52 could be very risky.

Why would they do it?
All of these teams need extra picks.

Conclusion: Very plausible.



In all, if we trade in the first, I think Chicago and Carolina are the best bets.

Let me know where I screwed up.

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-- Scott Pioli, from the Patriots scouting manual

bosfan

Interesting analysis and the wheeling and dealing in that 2003 draft was something to behold. We are definitely in great shape for BB/SP to work this draft as well, the last few drafts have dispelled all the rumors (for me) about how BB will or won't draft one position or another or won't sit pat - in the end the bottom line is they will do what they think they have to do - (get younger and faster, address the OL, whatever). With six picks in the first four rounds I think we can sit tight and get very healthy in some needed areas in this draft but if need be we have the ammo to do that Monte Hall impersonation again. My preference is a RB, DB, LB and whatever else on day one if we hold em. By the way Rook, you and the Boxster are serious assets on this forum.......

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shirtsleeve

Absolutely! Wow, what efforts you two put into this. Its like the off season is your season!

Rook. Excellent analysis as usual. It was my hope that we could swing that trade down from#21 to the #33-40 crowd if there was no one of value when we pick. You are right, I think that it is highly unlikely we will attempt much of a trade up in Rd1 unless someone of great value falls close to us AND our partner has no interest in that person as well.

But a trade outta the first for their second and 4th, lets say, would be kickin!

patsfaninpa

Hey Rook. Houston has New Orleans 3rd rounder. I think Casserle will
be itching to get the OL he wants when we pick. I would trade down
with them for 33 and 65. Unless, someone we really covet falls to
us like Wilfork did in 04. I believe he traded up for J. Babin a couple
of years ago. When, there was no reason to.

Box_O_Rocks

I thank the kind gentlemen and agree that the rookster keeps the brain cells cogitating assiduously. What the analysis lacks, it a supportive mock draft to highlight the trade arguments, e.g. Vernon Davis, if he was to drop to 15 or so, who would be going off the board in his stead to allow that move?

(1) Houston - the consensus is Reggie Bush, while the same consensus seems to be that Houston's primary need is O-line. Houston is shopping this pick like crazy, and while they may have better bait then SF did last year, they also have a huge CBA shadow obscuring the value. Figure no trade for anybody in the first half of the round because of the CBA curse. Best pick, D'Brickashaw Fergusen.

(2) New Orleans: Do they want the Tom Brady comparison in Matt Leinart (cool under fire/proven winner) or the Brett Favre comparison in Jay Cutler? Vince Young is first round talent, but not here. Go contrarian again, Reggie Bush - the HC of the NOS can make do with a Brodie Coyle in the 2nd round.

(3) Tennessee: Roos is moving to LT, a decent RT can be had in later rounds. Voleck is a pretty decent QB, but also good trade bait in this year of the QB dilemma. Best pick, Leinart.

(4) NY Jets: Everybody wants to buy them a QB now that Fergusen has gone south, uh uh, this is a Belichick protege and a defensive coach, play to your strengths. Contrarian pick, 6'7" 295 Mario Williams who can move like Willie and play like Seymour (if his shorts are on fire).

(5) Green Bay: Needs O-line, D-line, LB, RB, QB (evil chuckle). They have a new coach so guessing which way they jump is iffy, but I'm doing my first mock so sanity or intimate knowledge of obscure, non-New England teams isn't a real requirement. Go with the surprise pick, Vernon Davis - Bubba Franks was kind of useful once upon a time and Favre didn't retire.

(6) San Francisco: You run a 3-4 defense and you have an O-line dilemma, go defense, Haloti Ngata.

(7) Oakland: Oh frubious joy, two QBs on the board! Jay Cutler meet Randy Moss - don't miss.

(8) Buffalo: Safety or O-line? Micheal Huff.

(9) Detroit: A defensive coach and Matt Millen, Marinelli is breathing a sigh of relief that the Vernon Davis temptation has been removed from the board. Now sedate Mike Martz while you ignore Vince Young and take A.J. Hawk.

(10) Arizona: Offense, offense, offense - Vince Young.

(11) St. Louis: Haslett is hollering for a defensive player in this round, his Head Coach is an offensive guy hand picked to recreate the offensive juggernaut of years past. The next Marshall Faulk or the next Isaac Bruce, oh the choices. Deangelo Williams.

(12) Cleveburgh: Lawson is a great temptation for a 3-4 coach, can you buy a FA LB to fill Kenard Lang's gap while Lawson learns the trade? Yes, Manny Lawson.

(13) Baltimore: Lendale White and Taylor, that will help keep your QB alive.

(14) Philadelphia: Tamba Hali lives close by.

(15) Atlanta: Brad Smith is gone, Matthias Kiwanuka fills the roster slot.

(16) Miami: Half way through the draft, Saban is rebuilding his secondary, but that can wait, what do you do when you can't buy a QB and need to keep what you have alive? A LT, Winston Justice.

Now consider a trade

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flutie2phelan

You guys are too much.

Best DEEP Patriots reading on the net !

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rookBoston

Okay, let's play:

(1) Houston: D'Brickashaw Fergusen
(2) New Orleans: Reggie Bush
(3) Tennessee: Matt Leinart
(4) NY Jets: Mario Williams (not so ridiculous esp. if they lose Abraham)
(5) Green Bay: Vernon Davis
(6) San Francisco: Haloti Ngata
(7) Oakland: Jay Cutler
(8) Buffalo: Micheal Huff
(9) Detroit: A.J. Hawk
(10) Arizona: Vince Young
(11) St. Louis: Deangelo Williams
(12) Cleveburgh: Manny Lawson
(13) Baltimore: Lendale White
(14) Philadelphia: Tamba Hali
(15) Atlanta: Matthias Kiwanuka
(16) Miami: Winston Justice

Who's left?

QB Omar Jacobs
TE Leonard Pope, Mercedes Lewis
RB Lawrence Moroney
WR Santonio Holmes, Chad Jackson
OT Marcus McNeill, Eric Winston, Jonathan Scott
OG Max Jean-Gilles
OC Nick Mangold
LB Chad Greenway, Demeco Ryans, Bobby Carpenter, Ernie Sims, Thomas Howard
DE Kamerion Wimbley
DT Broderick Bunkley, Gabe Watson
SS Ko Simpson, Darnell Bing
FS Donte Whitner
CB Jimmy Williams, Tye Hill, Ashton Youboty, Richard Marshall, Antonio Cromartie

If it were me, I would immediately trade up to #17 for Greenway. To me, he is head and shoulders above the rest of the board, and the dropoff at LB (for our scheme) is significant enough to warrant a 3rd rounder. Hell, we've been waiting five years to draft a big physical player with strong leadership skills who can call the plays and be a franchise ILB for us. Plus we have two 3rd rounders stashed away for just this type of opportunity.

Now, if BB/SP think highly enough of Carpenter, that Greenway and Carpenter have the same grade, then I would wait until one of them comes off the board, and then trade up immediately for the other one. That's Value Grouping in action, right there.

Then, if they're both available at #21, I take Greenway.

Whichever way it works out, we land ourselves the future starting LB that we need. Greenway would play inside and allow Vrabel to shift outside into the McGinest spot. Carpenter would play outside right away, and Vrabel would stay inside until we find a way to get him back on the edge where he's more disruptive (another reason to prefer Greenway!).

If somehow Greenway comes off the board, and we cant execute the trade up for Carpenter before he comes off the board... then I trade back with the Colts to #30 (say, the Colts really want Moroney), and play the same wait and see game with Whitner and Marshall.

Again, as soon as one of them comes off the board, I'll trade back up for the other one. If they both last until #30, I take Marshall. Trading back should get us a late 2nd for our early 4th.

Let's say the Giants take Marshall at #25, then I'll trade back up into Chicago's spot at #26 to take Whitner. The trade back up will cost us our own 3rd rounder. Net-net? We lose our late 3rd and early 4th and get a late 2nd. That leaves us with Whitner, two 2nds (ours and Indy's) and the early third (from Baltimore). That should be enough to land us four future starters.

(Edit: forgot to mention... and if both Marshall and Whitner fall to #30, we come out of the first with Marshall, two 2nds and two 3rds... that's five Day One players and another historic draft class.

So the possible Day One outcomes:

(1) Greenway at #17, 2nd, 3rd
(2) Carpenter at #19, 2nd, 3rd (Baltimore)
(3) Whitner at #26, 2nd, 2nd (Indy), 3rd (Baltimore)
(4) Marshall at #30, 2nd, 2nd (Indy), 3rd (Baltimore), 3rd

Groovy.)

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Box_O_Rocks

That helps clarify the opportunities, though I'm not sure of the need for Whitner whom I believe is a Safety, otherwise your scenerio is very practical in an area ripe for improvement.

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rookBoston

Love what I've seen of Whitner. You're right, he's a S-tweener. Reminds me a lot of Geno. Same type of game. Take your head off.

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Box_O_Rocks

Check. I'll do some research.

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