moving up for a "sure thing" - Page 3 - New England Patriots Forums

MustaphaM0nd · 01-22-2010, 04:56 PM

there is NO sure thing. There are some "surer" things, but even that is ambiguous.

This organization hasn't drafted well in a while, but I don't think that either going straight to top 10 or hoarding 3rd round picks is the solution. Contrary to what lots of people here seem to think, there is a middle ground.

Taking one first-rounder is a 50% pick, taking two 2nd rounders who are 25% picks, you are likely to get a real keeper, and could end up with three. Voila.

The later rounds also sometimes produce. Brady? Troy Brown? more recently, Vollmer and Edelman?
I think instead of worrying about "sure things", the patriots should dispose of some "sure not things" and get compensatory picks.

Yeah, we have a lot of scrubs, but thats a reflection of bad personnel work by the organization. Doesn't mean that drafting isn't the answer.

MaineMan · 01-22-2010, 05:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mayoclinic

When was that?

BB traded up in the 1st twice, in 2002 (31 -> 21 for Dan Graham) and 2003 (14 -> 13 for Ty Warren). He traded back twice, in 2007 (7 -> 10 for Jerod Mayo) and 2009 (23 -> 26 -> 41). And he traded into the next year twice, in 2003 (19 -> 41 + a 2004 1st, which became Wilfork) and 2007 (28 -> a 2008 1st, which became Mayo, and a 4th which became Moss).

BB has traded up 5 times in the 2nd round: 50 -> 48 in 2001 for Matt Light, 41 -> 36 in 2003 for Eugene Wilson, 50 -> 45 in 2003 for Bethel Johnson, 52 -> 36 in 2006 for Chad Jackson, and 47 -> 40 in 2009 for Ron Brace. The only time BB has traded back or out of the 2nd round (other than trades for a player, such as Corey Dillon in 2004 and Wes Welker in 2007) was in 2005, when he traded #64 to Baltimore for a 2005 3rd (used on Ellis Hobbs) and a 2006 3rd (used to trade up for Chad Jackson).

Hmmm. I suspect that BB never trades UP for a WR ever again in our lifetimes.

***KontradictioN*** · 01-22-2010, 05:12 PM

I think Berry is pretty close to a sure thing. He almost single handedly shut down the Gators' offense in the two teams' meeting this past season. However, our needs considered, the only guy I would move up for in the draft would be Dunlap. I think he would look great as an OLB in our system.

SunnyDenmark · 01-22-2010, 05:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mayoclinic

When was that?

BB traded up in the 1st twice, in 2002 (31 -> 21 for Dan Graham) and 2003 (14 -> 13 for Ty Warren). He traded back twice, in 2007 (7 -> 10 for Jerod Mayo) and 2009 (23 -> 26 -> 41). And he traded into the next year twice, in 2003 (19 -> 41 + a 2004 1st, which became Wilfork) and 2007 (28 -> a 2008 1st, which became Mayo, and a 4th which became Moss).

BB has traded up 5 times in the 2nd round: 50 -> 48 in 2001 for Matt Light, 41 -> 36 in 2003 for Eugene Wilson, 50 -> 45 in 2003 for Bethel Johnson, 52 -> 36 in 2006 for Chad Jackson, and 47 -> 40 in 2009 for Ron Brace. The only time BB has traded back or out of the 2nd round (other than trades for a player, such as Corey Dillon in 2004 and Wes Welker in 2007) was in 2005, when he traded #64 to Baltimore for a 2005 3rd (used on Ellis Hobbs) and a 2006 3rd (used to trade up for Chad Jackson).

Hi Mayo - you either have a great memory or are quick with google. I am only using my almost 50 year old memory - but I am glad to see that I was not mistaken.

First round (which I said in my post was my point of reference). As you pointed out -he has traded up (2x ) - thank for the Graham info -forgot that one. And down / out (I did not write out) - but in my meaning trading out (of the first) is a form of trading down. Picking up extra picks in compensation for moving out of your draft slot. And with your excellent summary above - this has happened 5 times. So it is 5 to 2 or alittle over double as many times. Instead of staying at his spot he has shown the perpensity to be much more likely of moving down / out of the slot instead of moving up (speaking about the first round).

And as the contract costs of first round picks is increasing very fast (look at the increases in guaranteed dollars) - I expect Bill to continue this for the forseeable future , unless a rookie salary wage is instituted. There is diminishing value in first round picks as these first round contracts continue to increase at a faster rate than other round contracts (again see the guaranteed dollars increases).

carolinatony · 01-22-2010, 05:23 PM

I would be shocked BUT happpy if BB traded up to get that player but don't expect it.

To me Rolando McClain would be that guy to do it for. He would be our leader on defense.

***KontradictioN*** · 01-22-2010, 05:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by carolinatony

I would be shocked BUT happpy if BB traded up to get that player but don't expect it.

To me Rolando McClain would be that guy to do it for. He would be our leader on defense.

I expect McClain to go top five. I think most people do. There's probably a snowball's chance in hell that the Patriots will move into the top five this year when they have a top five waiting for them in 2011, a year which looks like it will come after another turbulent season for the Raiders.

MaineMan · 01-22-2010, 05:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mayoclinic

So we basically got Ron Brace, Matt Slater, Oscar Lua and Kareem Brown for what could have been Steward Bradley in 2007 and our #124 and #199 in 2009?

That's a non-brainer. Bradley's a stud, and would have been a terrific SILB next to Mayo. Lua and Brown were cut, Slater's a replaceable STer, and Brace has done nothing so far. If Brace turns out to be great it will be different, but Bradley and Mayo could have given us a solid ILB base for a decade.

Yeah. No question that the way it's worked out so far (minus a "final grade" on Brace) pretty much s**ks.

OTOH, it's kinda neat how BB took a pick worth 136 points, traded it for a player (Lua) plus a pick worth 245 points, then trade THAT for a player (Slater) plus a pick worth 430 points. If the actual player selections had been better . . .

BTW, IIRC, Oscar Lua was looking like the proverbial hidden gem in Camp until, at some point (and I forget the details), he suffered a back injury in camp sufficiently severe that he was medically advised not to attempt to play contact sports ever again. I flashed on this when I heard about Tyrone McKenzie's injury and thought, Oh, f Not again!"

But, still, Lua only cost a #211 (about 7 points), and Slater a #153 and a #238 (about 31 points). So the real loss on all that dealing has been the non-performance of Brace.

Anyway, the problem is not the trading down or the trading into next year or the refusing to trade up, it's selecting the wrong players.

SunnyDenmark · 01-22-2010, 05:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by KontradictioN

I expect McClain to go top five. I think most people do. There's probably a snowball's chance in hell that the Patriots will move into the top five this year when they have a top five waiting for them in 2011, a year which looks like it will come after another turbulent season for the Raiders.

Good point. There likely MIGHT be a rookie salary cap in place for the 2011 - but obviously that can fall through as well (as a new CBA). And then could be the lockout year. So even more unlikely Bill would trade up this year into top 10 and and have all that money (2 years in a row) invested in only 2 new players.

carolinatony · 01-22-2010, 05:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by KontradictioN

I expect McClain to go top five. I think most people do. There's probably a snowball's chance in hell that the Patriots will move into the top five this year when they have a top five waiting for them in 2011, a year which looks like it will come after another turbulent season for the Raiders.

I didn't think he was going that High. If he fell to 12-14 I could see a move up but not into the top 10 .

TealSox · 01-22-2010, 05:51 PM

Excuse me... I stopped reading at Eric Berry from Texas.