Box_O_Rocks

For the moment the three potential comp picks aren't likely to be much more than 7ths. Philly returned at least a 2010 7th, if Lewis falls flat he might bring back a 6th. I'd feel better if BB can manage to roll at least a 3rd forward too - preferably a 2nd.

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DocE

QUOTE=ctpatsfan77;1347430]First off, I'm not going to predict specific players, because I'm bad at it, and IBBIT.

That said, I do think there are certain things that are very likely to happen, based on historical tendencies:

1. I expect the Patriots will draft a total of FOUR players in the first three rounds. My main reason for saying this is that, historically, EVERY player drafted in the first four rounds makes the roster, AND at least one UDFA makes the opening day roster as well.

I'd set the over under at 4 1/2. So I am right with you there. UDFA will have a tougher time making the team this year unless it's at a position like FB, P, or special teams ace ala Izzo.

2. I expect the Patriots to trade ONE of the three seconds—most likely #34, since that will get them an extra first—into the 2010 draft.

I think they will try to do this, but may have difficulty finding a partner. Trading no.34 for a 2010 first rounder is tricky, because you certainly want to be trading with team that won't make the playoffs. Trading no.34 in one draft for pick 25 in the next would not represent good value.

3. I expect the Patriots will use either #58 or #89 to trade up. According to the value chart, #47 + #89 = #33, so they could easily trade away #34 and still draft a player in the #30s.

No argument here, though keep an eye on 58 for a trade down or out to 2010, not up.

4. I also expect the Patriots to use at least one of their three remaining "late" picks (their 4, their 6, or their 7) in trades. In all, I expect the Patriots will draft 8-9 players total.

Agreed

5. I expect the Patriots to draft at least one LB in the first three rounds, and at least one player who can play S.

I think this is about as safe a prediction as you can make, I'd be very surprised if you are not right.
6. I expect that somewhere on day two, most likely in rounds four or five, they will take a QB to challenge Gutierrez.

Wouldn't shock me, but it's a bad year for QB's, I hope it's not before round 5. Maybe Hoyer or Boltus in round 5 or 6.

7. I do NOT expect them to draft a punter, but I do expect them to sign one as a UDFA to push Hanson. I do NOT expect that UDFA to replace Hanson.

I haven't studied the P's, but if they have checked out both the kid from Cincy and the kid from SMU and I think both are projected to be drafted. I have a hard time seeing BB going with a rookie P with the difficult conditions in Foxboro come playoff time.

8. I expect the Patriots will draft at least one "slash" type player (WR/QB, CB/S, RB/WR, etc.)

I think they are strongly considering a slash type guy for the wildcat and/or a RB/WR who could return kicks and punts and keep Hobbs and Welker rested.

9. I do NOT expect they will trade DOWN in the draft unless they can find a way to push the picks they accumulate into 2010. Drafting a ton of players this year, again, makes little sense.
I see trading down as possible both in round 1 and late in round 2. In round 1, I see a very real possibility that the draft board will not provide any value for the Patriots at no.23. If they don't trade up for someone, I could see them trading down pretty easily. At 58, those last few 2nd rounders get quite valuable as teams see guys they had as late first or early 2nd rounders still on the board. Sometimes you can get huge value trading an end of the round pick, especially when it's the last round of the day (it used to be the 3rd, now it's the 2nd).

10. I expect that, all of the above said, I will still, nevertheless, say "WTF?" at least once next weekend.[/quote]

I'd be thrilled if I only say it once, and overjoyed if that one time is not in round 1.

ctpatsfan77

I honestly doubt it; I do think there'll be enough players the Patriots like there that they can find someone to draft, but, of course, if someone makes an offer they can't refuse (e.g., DET offering #33 and next year's one for #23 and #58), they'll make the trade.

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mgteich

All the following players can easily be upgraded with those above the line in the first four rounds, and the bottom two in the last three. More draftees will make the team this year because this is a great draft between 20 and 125, and we have seven picks in that range.

RB BJGE
OLB Redd
DE Smith
SS Williams
FS Spann
OG Yates
ILB Ruud
OT O'Callaghan
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QB Gutierrez
P Hanson
================================================== ==
[quote=ctpatsfan77;1347430]First off, I'm not going to predict specific players, because I'm bad at it, and IBBIT.
1. I expect the Patriots will draft a total of FOUR players in the first three rounds. My main reason for saying this is that, historically, EVERY player drafted in the first four rounds makes the roster, AND at least one UDFA makes the opening day roster as well.

Wheelssps

Exactly. That was my line of thinking when I mentioned that #47 might go to next year, etc. There might be a very good player there that the Pats want, but he might be around at #58, too. If someone offers the chance to turn #47 this year into the chance to be around a #15 next year, that's great value no matter the strength of one draft over another. Of course if they could turn #58 plus a low rounder into something similar......

I just see BB rolling more picks (and higher picks)into next year than most mocks (this board and elsewhere) take into account. I definitely advocate to maximize the opportunity of this deep draft, but I also bet that will prompt other teams to offer some pretty sweet deals to the Pats for some of their picks, too.