patchick

Following DaBruinz' lead, I've attempted to tackle the question of "what holes do the Patriots most need to fill?" What's the state of the roster?

To clarify: this is NOT the same as assessing draft and FA "priorities", which are shaped strongly by market forces. (E.g. the Pats have a gaping hole at fullback, but fullback won't be a high "priority" because the position is severely devalued in the marketplace.)

My goal was to come up with a transparent way of weighting position importance, current need and projected need. I whipped up a 20-point scale, comprised of 3 scores. It may look arcane but it's actually pretty simple and quick to tally:

2009GapPoints (0-9)
How far is the current Patriots roster from filling this position at a high level? E.g. Kicker scores a 0 because a Pro-Bowler is under contract; FB scores a 9 because the position is empty.

2010GapPoints (0-4)
Same as above but looking ahead to 2010.

PositionQualityValuePoints (0-7)
How much does the quality of the player at this position affect the team's chances of winning? (Note that you must assign the full 0-7 range; a 0 doesn't mean the position is worthless, just that it doesn't earn any position value points.)

I took a stab at scoring 38 individual positions, including starters, specialists, and primary subs. Here's the needs ranking I ended up with:

1. Strong Safety
2. Backup Nose Tackle
3. Punter
4. Fullback
5. Tight End A
6. Long Snapper
7. Swing Tackle
8. Rush OLB
9. 3rd ILB

Notes:

* Some of those positions had a second similar position that also scored in double digits: OT, TE, NT, and S. So those four position areas look to me like the primary, concentrated need areas.

* OG and DE are notable for having multiple gaps to plan for in 2010.

* CB & RB are notable for having multiple filled but "upgradable" slots for 2009.

Or not.

KevinFaulk-33

Interesting thread, definitely worth a look at your toughts.

I'll make an analysis too!

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BradyManny

Interesting way of doing it with the point system, thats a good way of doing it. I think your results look good to me, though I would point out (as BOR pointed out to me) that Meriweather has been playing the SS role a lot. Which would mean FS would be the need, but I imagine they'd be OK taking another guy like Meriweather who is good in coverage and in run support and can play either FS or SS.

I would personally have CB higher, Hobbs is hitting free agency in a year and Wheatley & Wilhite are still a bit unknown, although they both looked pretty good in limited action.

Some self promotion, here's a couple of threads on individual positions that sparked some good responses:

Needs Analysis: Tight End
Needs Analysis: Safety
Needs Analysis: Linebacker
Needs Analysis: Offensive Line
Needs Analysis: Wide Receiver
Needs Analysis: Defensive Line

I agree its time to have one consolidated needs thread as we are officially in the offseason.

mgteich

I'll post later, but first I will analyze your analysis. Let us suppose that we meet ALL your needs and see where we are. I think it reasonable to find the nine contributers you seek.

WHERE ARE WE IN 2008
DL: We've replaced Mike Wright with a backup NT, presumably a draftee. This is not likely to be an upgrade.
OLB: You add a rush OLB to compete with or replace Vrabel, Thomas, Woods, Crable and/or Redd. This should be an upgrade, but I would do it.
ILB: This person could/should be Thomas for this year. I do agree that we should draft one.
CB: Wheatley better be good. I guess this is even with this year. Bring in the JAG's again.
S: As was pointed out, we could pick up a free safety instead of a strong safety
OL: Connolly replaces Hochstein, a loss.
TE : A pickup is an improvement
RB/FB: should be the same (excellent)
QB: improved
WR: Washington and Aiken will compete for the #3 spot, a loss.

WHERE WE ARE IN 2010
Turn out the lights, the party's over unless there is no CBA and we can pay for all our holes.
We will have no guards, Warren and your draftee on the DL, Faulk and Hobbs gone, and we will depend on your draftee as the only 2010 tight end.

Ochmed Jones

Even though it is way too early to think about 2010, I can not see BB loading up for a 2009 run without laying some pipe for future years as well?????

Unless 2009 is BB's swansong!!!! Do we know BB's contract status?

ctpatsfan77

According to the reports leaked in the immediate wake of , he's signed through 2013.

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patchick

Mgteich, this is a little odd. I don't think you really "analyzed my analysis"; instead you asked "what would happen if we only filled the 9 positions that came out highest in her raw scoring, ignoring all comments before and after?" An interesting exercise, but hardly a path I was recommending. It would obviously be absurd to suggest that any team should only add 9 players between now and 2010.

As for 2010, I looked at the initial scoring and concluded as you did, that future needs were probably underweighted. That's why I wrote things like "OG and DE are notable for having multiple gaps to plan for in 2010."

If/when I do the exercise again, I think a key addition would be an extra factor that kicks in for multiple weaknesses at a single position category at a given time. (Also, as an aside, isn't Mankins scheduled to be an RFA not UFA in 2010 under the current CBA?)

DaBruinz

Sorry MG. But this has to rank right up there with one of your worst thought out comments ever.

1) If there is a new CBA, the Patriots will have plenty of money to sign players and, like previously, there will be an extended time frame to sign your own players first. And do you really think that the Patriots are the ONLY team in this situation? No. They aren't. Every team is.

2) If there isn't a new CBA, the Patriots will have plenty of money to sign players and there are numerous players who are under contract OR would be restricted free agents. Not to mention that EVERY TEAM in the league would be in the same predicament as the Patriots.

One of the things that people have forgotten is that the owners can choose to lock the players out and keep the 2009 season from starting until new CBA is done. That way, the uncapped year isn't triggered.

The players to be worried about beyond the 2009 season are Mankins, Hobbs, Kaczur, Wilfork, Gostkowski. The rest are either RFA or will be well beyond the 30 year old mark.

And is 2010 really any worse than 2009. In 2009, the Patriots have 17 UFA and 4 RFA. In 2010, with it uncapped, they'd have 11 UFA and 12 RFA ( I removed Spach from the list since he's with AZ).

There are players who are loyal to this team because the team gave them more than they expected. Kevin Faulk is a perfect example. He's Troy Brown all over again. I don't see Faulk donning another uniform. Same with Bruschi.

The Pats who are available after the 2009 season as UFA from the Pats are:
Stephen Neal - He'll be 33 going into free agency and has a history of health issues. I fully expect the Pats to draft/sign his replacement prior to the start of the 2009 season.

Kevin Faulk - He'll be 33 at the end of next season, and he showed, this season, he still has a lot of game left. I expect the Pats to be able to re-sign him easily or bring in a replacement.

Matt Light - Matt has manned the LT position since game 2 or 3 of his rookie year. He been very solid and had issues with some of the best pass rushers in the league. He'll be 31. He's probably got a few more years left in him. The question will be whether the Pats want him back.

Vince Wilfork - Probably the biggest signing that needs to occur. They need to get big Vince singed to a 5-6 year deal and done prior to the 2009 season starting.

Richard Seymour - 2009 needs to be a career year for Seymour. Its the only way he's going to get a top contract offer. If he has a season similar to 2006 or 2007, Seymour isn't likely to get the kind of offer he expects. Seymour will be the big 30 during the 2009 season.

Sam AIken - Special teamer. Will be turn 29 during the 2009 season

Tedy Bruschi - Bruschi has heart, but he's lost a step. He wasn't the force the Pats needed him to be. He'll be 36 at the end of the 2009 season and I wouldn't be surprised to see him hang them up.

Jarvis Green - Jarvis would be seeing starting time as a 4-3 DE on many teams in this league. He'll only be 30 years old at the end of next season. He's on that I believe will stay with the Pats out of loyalty.

Kelley Washington - Has been a stand-out special teamer for the Pats. His loss would not be devestating.

Ben Watson - Ben never lived up to the extremely high expectations that Fans put on him for being a 1st round pick. He's a solid blocker and his hands are good when he stays focused. But that is the issue. Him staying focused.

Mike Vrabel - Vrabel will be 35 before the start of the 2010 season. While to start off the season, he was playing well at the ROLB position, he clearly wasn't comfortable there and it hurt his game performance. By the end of this year, he looked like he had lost a step. I see Mike calling it quits after 2009.

DaBruinz

Good list, Patchick. The only thing I question is that you list the 3rd ILB position but not the 2nd. I can see Guyton being the 3rd, but he's not showed enough yet to say he should be starting at the SILB position next to Mayo.

Other than that, I see no glaring things to take issue with.

Box_O_Rocks

Reiss had some thoughts of his own:

Patriots: No playoffs on table, time for a check - The Boston Globe

One point Mike touches on applies to Db's note on Seymour:

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