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Old 12-17-2008, 05:49 PM   #1
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Default Needs Analysis: Tight End

Perhaps this position has been discussed enough that I won't generate much talk (I'm already skipping CB as that's been covered well by other threads...), but what the heck:

TIGHT END (3), 2 signed, 1 unsigned

TE - Watson (2009)
TE - Thomas (2009)

FA
TE - DeVree

LOCKS (2):
Watson and Thomas are both under contract and are locks to make the roster.

SPOTS UP FOR GRAB (1):
With both Tight Ends hitting FA in 2009, the Patriots likely need to invest in a #1 TE for the future. The team might also consider investing in a blocking TE, but they seem unlikely to carry 4 TE next season, so that might be on hold.

CURRENT COMPETITION FOR OPEN SPOTS (1):
- DeVree doesn’t seem to be the answer to any of the Pats long term needs at TE.

PLAN OF ACTION IN DRAFT/FREE AGENCY:
Both Thomas and Watson have played pretty well when healthy, but it’s unknown whether either are the long term answer as the Pats #1 TE. With both hitting free agency in 2009, it would make sense to draft a Day 1 Tight End to groom as one of their replacements.

Bottom Line: 1 players is needed. An impact Tight End with high upside. A quality blocking TE may be taken in the mid to later rounds.


UPDATE: 12-17-08 (I wrote the above probably a month ago, some more things to ponder...)

- Watson has not done much to prove himself as a #1 option, unfortunately. I will say that his blocking has continued to exceed my expectations, but that he's no Dan Graham in that sense. But when I do focus in on him as a blocker, he seems pretty good, not that I'm necessarily qualified at making said judgments. Perhaps the good news is that his lack of pass production and the fact that - as of yet - he doesn't have the same resume Graham had when he hit free agency should mean the Pats could retain him for less. I would be for it, but I think we have to a) see if Thomas can be an upgrade in the pass catching realm b) if we can upgrade via the draft.
- As Reiss has made note of recently, with Cassel's remarkably swift improvements, most notably in his pocket presence, the team has gone back to using more 1 TE sets. If this continues, perhaps the need at TE is less. Is the mediocre production at TE a product of the system, or of the personnel, or of both? It's not as if there is much to complain about this offense once Brady is healthy (or with Cassel for that matter), it's explosive. Is there a TE in the draft who could make it even more deadly?

Last edited by BradyManny; 12-17-2008 at 05:50 PM..
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Old 12-17-2008, 09:20 PM   #2
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Default Re: Needs Analysis: Tight End

Ben "Pizza Paddles" Watson has indeed been doing a good job with his blocking once he got past his usual early season shakes. If Cassel was staying he and Ben would work on their relationship and we'd see some improvement - with Tommy back in 2009 Ben will make a few more plays to counter the 'oh sugar' heartbreakers he can't seem to shake off. He's a known quantity at TE, his muffs will be more than countered by his overall play. I would have no problem with the team extending him.

Thomas is the big question mark for me. Is his foot still bothering? Does it affect his base when he's blocking? Does it limit his ability to cut when running his route? Hopefully a healthy offseason will retune him for 2009.

DeVree is obviously doing something the coaches like. Keep it up kid.

Blocking TE can be addressed by the Reserve OL for short yardage situations. Watson, as noted, has improved his blocking, I wouldn't call TE a weak spot on the line anymore. Heath Evans fills part of the H-back blocking role. Thomas may or may not be back to full strength next season, but he surprised me with his blocking as a rookie so I'm holding out hope. DeVree has the size and I'm sure Mangurian and Scarnecchia can make him better.

I was inclined towards a Day One TE back in September, now I think it's no more than a 'Best Patriots Value' pick if they take one on Day One. I'd be more inclined to look for a #3 WR and a replacement NT for Wright (assuming he's not extended).

On a tangent: I've been catching up with some college games I recorded and I am very high on DE Connor Barwin (Cincinnati) as an OLB prospect and #3 TE - he shows a good awareness on passes to the flat and has checked his rush to run with RBs trying to sneak out into the pattern, he also gets used as a form of underneath Rover to vary where his pass rush is coming from, so he's already working up in a two-point stance. He looked good blocking in short yardage situations as a TE, his time as a DE will have helped him with hand use. Barwin has only one year at DE in college, as a converted TE he seems like a good prospect to make a more rapid adjustment to OLB and a solid Patriot "fit" with his TE skill set and his Special Teams background. 2008 Stats: 49 TT, 11 sacks, 14.5 TFL, 6 PD, 7 QBH, 3 BK, 1 TD (on offense), and 2 PR for an avg. of 10 yds. He's rapidly working towards being my "binky" for this draft.

EDIT: I checked the sack masters who ranked higher than Barwin in 2008, some have as many as 3 PD - 6 PD speaks to Barwin's awareness in the passing game, allowing him to knock down twice as many passes as his peers. Of the top 25 sack masters, only DE Cody Brown (Connecticut) also has more than 3 PD (8 actually, OLB shoppers take note).
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Old 12-18-2008, 08:09 AM   #3
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Default Re: Needs Analysis: Tight End

I will be very happy when Ben Watson and his Hands of Feet are no longer options in our offense. I will gladly take a tight end who is not an athletic freak and physical mismatch but who can consistently catch the routine pass. Witten and Carlson seem to be veritable weapons in their offenses, and they're not going to outrun anybody, ever. I'm almost willing to roll the dice with Usain Bolt. He'd be a mismatch too, and his hands might be better.
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Old 12-18-2008, 10:25 AM   #4
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Default Re: Needs Analysis: Tight End

I have a growing suspicion that BB is gonna fall in love with TE Brandon Pettigrew from Oklahoma St. and take him in round 1. This kid has great size, excellent hands, and is supposedly the best blocking TE to come out in years. With the amount we spread the field, a TE who can beat a LB consistently and serve as a safety valve could be a huge asset, especially in the RZ. Although not as athletic as Watson, I think Pettigrew is a better all-around player.
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Old 12-18-2008, 02:23 PM   #5
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Default Re: Needs Analysis: Tight End

Quote:
Originally Posted by Box_O_Rocks View Post
I was inclined towards a Day One TE back in September, now I think it's no more than a 'Best Patriots Value' pick if they take one on Day One.
Yeah, that sounds about right - like I said, I'm not quite sure how to evaluate the need at that position. While production from the position might not be as good as we'd hoped, it might also not be much of an issue given the way the Brady/Cassel+McD+Moss+Welker+Faulk centered offense is clicking, especially with Brady.

Quote:
On a tangent: I've been catching up with some college games I recorded and I am very high on DE Connor Barwin (Cincinnati) as an OLB prospect and #3 TE - he shows a good awareness on passes to the flat and has checked his rush to run with RBs trying to sneak out into the pattern, he also gets used as a form of underneath Rover to vary where his pass rush is coming from, so he's already working up in a two-point stance. He looked good blocking in short yardage situations as a TE, his time as a DE will have helped him with hand use. Barwin has only one year at DE in college, as a converted TE he seems like a good prospect to make a more rapid adjustment to OLB and a solid Patriot "fit" with his TE skill set and his Special Teams background. 2008 Stats: 49 TT, 11 sacks, 14.5 TFL, 6 PD, 7 QBH, 3 BK, 1 TD (on offense), and 2 PR for an avg. of 10 yds. He's rapidly working towards being my "binky" for this draft.
Again, this sounds pretty good to me.

Last edited by BradyManny; 12-18-2008 at 02:24 PM..
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Old 12-18-2008, 02:24 PM   #6
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Default Re: Needs Analysis: Tight End

Quote:
Originally Posted by kas View Post
I have a growing suspicion that BB is gonna fall in love with TE Brandon Pettigrew from Oklahoma St. and take him in round 1. This kid has great size, excellent hands, and is supposedly the best blocking TE to come out in years. With the amount we spread the field, a TE who can beat a LB consistently and serve as a safety valve could be a huge asset, especially in the RZ. Although not as athletic as Watson, I think Pettigrew is a better all-around player.
Will he be around when we pick in the middle of rd 2 w the Chargers pick?
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Old 12-18-2008, 02:32 PM   #7
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Default Re: Needs Analysis: Tight End

Quote:
Originally Posted by dryheat44 View Post
I will be very happy when Ben Watson and his Hands of Feet are no longer options in our offense. I will gladly take a tight end who is not an athletic freak and physical mismatch but who can consistently catch the routine pass. Witten and Carlson seem to be veritable weapons in their offenses, and they're not going to outrun anybody, ever. I'm almost willing to roll the dice with Usain Bolt. He'd be a mismatch too, and his hands might be better.
What do you think of Coffman? He might fit that description based on what I've seen and read about him?
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Old 12-18-2008, 08:31 PM   #8
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Default Re: Needs Analysis: Tight End

Quote:
Originally Posted by BradyManny2344 View Post
What do you think of Coffman? He might fit that description based on what I've seen and read about him?
I'm 100% on board taking Coffman in the 2nd.
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Old 12-18-2008, 11:26 PM   #9
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Default Re: Needs Analysis: Tight End

Quote:
Originally Posted by BradyManny2344 View Post
Will he be around when we pick in the middle of rd 2 w the Chargers pick?
Doubtful IMO unless he runs a terrible 40. His lack of pure game breaking speed should leave him until around the 25ish range. There are three other influencing factors:
1) junior TE Jermaine Gresham from Oklahoma could come out and he would be the #1 TE based on his athleticism. I like him too but he's a 15-20 type round 1 pick. He could knock Pettigrew down though.
2) Chase Coffman from Miss could be a TE who impresses in the post season and jumps Pettigrew due to his potential as a pass catcher.
3) Pettigrew had a DUI I believe over the summer. I don't think it's such a big deal, but you never know.

Just for the record, as of now and despite our defensive needs, I think he would be an amazing pick and help particularly our power running game and RZ/short yardage offense.
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Old 12-19-2008, 07:35 AM   #10
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Default Re: Needs Analysis: Tight End

Quote:
Originally Posted by BradyManny2344 View Post
Will he be around when we pick in the middle of rd 2 w the Chargers pick?
Its highly unlikely that Pettigrew will be around when the Patriots pick in the 1st round, let alone with the Chargers pick in the 2nd.
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