Continuing on with the series...I move onto the position that was considered such a need going into the April draft, and between Mayo, Guyton, Redd, Ruud & Crable, not to mention the progress of Woods, it seems the team may have settled that issue, to say the least. As you'll see, I don't really see LB as an area of need, and think all its need can be filled with players that are on the roster or PS...


LINEBACKERS (11), 6 signed, 5 unsigned

OLB - Thomas (2011)
OLB - Vrabel (2009)
ILB - Mayo (2012)
ILB - Guyton (2009)
ILB - Bruschi (2009)
OLB - Crable (2011)


FA
OLB - Woods (RFA)
ILB - Alexander (RFA)
LB - Izzo

Practice Squad
OLB - Redd
ILB - Ruud

LOCKS (6):
Thomas, Vrabel and Crable are locks on the outside. Mayo and Guyton are locks inside, with Bruschi a lock providing he returns for another season.

SPOTS UP FOR GRAB (3):
1) Backup OLB/situational pass rusher and or long term replacement for Vrabel 2) Versatile ILB, who can fill in and or rotate at WILB & SILB 3) Depth at either position, but with the ability to contribute on ST

CURRENT COMPETITION FOR OPEN SPOTS (5):
- Woods has shown he can be the 3rd OLB on the roster, and has been a consistent contributor on ST. He would be worth retaining if the price is right
- Redd is a very intriguing prospect on the practice squad. It will be interesting to see how much he progressed, he will have the opportunity to compete for a roster spot.
- Izzo is a leader on ST, and until a player demonstrate they can replace him in that regard, he will likely have a spot. Ideally, another younger player can do his job on ST and provide more upside as a contributor on defense.
- Ruud is spending the year on IR and seems to be unlikely to beat out the competition for a roster spot.
- Alexander has been a great ST player, but has little upside on defense and can probably be replaced via the draft, doubtful he will be re-signed.


PLAN OF ACTION VIA DRAFT/FREE AGENCY:
- This position seems to be in good shape short term and long term. The team will likely grab another ILB to bring into the mix with Mayo & Guyton, presumably anywhere in the draft where they can find good value.
- Hopefully between Crable, Redd & Woods (RFA), they have a potential long term replacement for Vrabel. If they see a player with greater upside or potential, likely during Day 1 of the draft, they could take that player. Otherwise, and especially if Woods is brought back, OLB is not a need.

Bottom Line: 2-3 players needed, all which could come internally. They could add another player via the draft at ILB, but OLB will only be augmented if a) Woods is not resigned b) a high upside 3-4 OLB presents itself in the draft. If Izzo does not return, look for the ST position to be filled internally first, but the team could spend some Day 2 picks and UDFA taking flyers on either LB position.

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Really good breakdown, I could go either way in 2009.

Option 1 - They can it basically as-is and there is a nice set of LBs, good mix of youth and veterans but no special talents.
Option 2 - Draft or sign an impact player, especially on the edge. A top end player improves depth across the board and OLB is vital to the scheme. I really like the Steelers model, draft a lot of LBs and keep the pipeline going.

Last year, at least, the Patriots followed that model--they did sign five LBs, all of whom are still on the payroll.

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Good I like it, lets do it again next year.

Really nice write up first and foremost.

Regarding the notion of 'need' at the position, as we know the 3-4 defensive scheme is successful because of these three basic premises:

1. Your 3 defensive lineman can both generate some kind of pass rush, and contain the run.

2. Your ILB's can plug any gaps inside, taking on and defeating blockers, and they can also drop back into coverage.

3. Maybe the key to the whole scheme - your OLB's can set the edge against the run, can drop into coverage if required, but maybe more importantly can generate consistently good pass rush.

It seems our scheme has passed the test on points 1 & 2 this season, and our D has been average to good (someone pointed out the other day that the Fins game aside, our D is giving up only 3.7 ypc on the ground), but in my opinion (the key bit), for it to be elite again, we need at least one outstanding rusher off the edge, as we used to have (and indeed had that last season), and we get that in one of two ways.

1. One of our current OLB's steps up their current production. Thomas has 5 sacks on the year, not bad on the face of it 8 games in, but looking at some of the teams faced (KC, St. Louis, Denver, 49ers), you'd be hoping he had more. Vrabel has 2 sacks on the year - at this point last season he had 7.5 sacks, on a much tougher schedule. Then there's Pierre, who's shown he can set the edge, but has shown little in terms of getting to the QB. After that this year, we have little else at OLB.

2. We draft a Merriman/Ware/Harrison/Woodley to play outside and offer that 'sudden' (as Ochmed so accurately puts it) presence off the edge to not allow teams a moments respite. Granted, this time next year we might already have that in Crable or even Redd, but as others have said, is there truly anything wrong with having a fair number of excellent young LB's? Elite pass rushers are the key to seeing this scheme work as I've said, and we need more.

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Agreed - option 2 is a luxury though, if the Pats are in the position to pull the trigger on a high potential OLB, then they can do it. But they don't have to reach or go out of their way to do it.


Another thought - looking at the squad on paper, ILB depth might look thin, especially with Alexander banged up and not having played on the defense at all this year. But I'm guessing that Seau is a phone call away for this year or next year. Not to mention, if Mayo (god forbid) were to go down w an injury, in the base 3-4, Woods could come in, Thomas could slide to SILB & Bru to WILB.

Also, I have Tank Williams mentioned in my safety breakdown which I haven't posted, but he's worth throwing in here. I have a feeling that if he's healthy, he's re-signed, the team invested a whole TC of training him at ILB.

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"I'm going to need a hacksaw"

Yes, this is where I'm glad I'm not on the Patriots personnel staff and that they leave these decisions to Pioli and BB - b/c its a tough question.

BOR commented on Vrabel's drop off in sack production in another thread, and the other factors that are involved. As for AD, I've been happy with his pass rushing so far. He's very quick for his size, and he is pretty powerful, too. But up until about week 4 or 5 I think, he was dropping in coverage a lot. Even in the Colts game, he wasn't exactly teeing off in pass rushing situations, I noticed a lot in the 2nd half he would just engage a blocker and had the responsibility to wait to see what the RB was doing. So, basically, I'm not sure if OLB's pass rushing can be upgraded all that much...but I'm open to the thought.

The three guys on the depth chart beyond the starters, Woods, Crable and then from the PS, Redd, raise another interesting question. What do they envision Crable's role to be down the road? Is Woods re-signed? And Redd, sure, he might on the surface seem expendable, but the "oh, he's just a UDFA" has proven to be a rash judgment based on Guyton and BJGE's contributions. And Redd specifically was a guy that seemed like a good fit for the Pats even before we signed him, he had some experience doing all 3 things in college, setting edge, dropping in coverage, and rushing the passer. Now, he's had a year in the system. Where does that leave him? Again, the team has invested in him, he'll have a chance to earn a roster spot next year.

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"I'm going to need a hacksaw"

IF, we want to add even more youth to the OLB position, one prospect to consider may be: Connor Barwin, a 6-4 255 senior DE from Cincinnati. A Former TE, he leads his team in sacks while also being a standout on ST. This versatility and ST ability make him a possible developmental candidate. A R2-3 projection.

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"What we want to try to do is maximize each spot on the roster; we want to be stronger at No. 1 than the opponent, stronger at No. 25 than they are, and stronger at No. 53 than they are, we're always looking to upgrade the talent level on the team, and play together to be functional."
- Bill Belichick -

You had BB at "tight end."

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BOR mentioned this kid in another thread...

If we want TE Help...


Barwin is a 2/3 projection and rising currently.. So he could, very well, be a guy the Patriots look at with the San Diego pick...

And he could be the next Mike Vrabel.... lining up at the TE spot in Goal Line formations.