BradyManny

I've been breaking down the Pats roster and the outlook for the future. I've been doing it for myself, but I thought I'd share in the case it had any chances of spurring some conversation or bringing about discussion on potential draft prospects at a given position.

Note: the "Bottom Line" assessment of the need at a given position is informed only by what players are under contract for next season. IE, for the DL, I say 1-2 players are needed, our own UFA such as Wright could fill one of those position of need.

Any thoughts are welcome...

The first position...Defensive Line:

DEFENSIVE LINE (8), 5 signed, 3 unsigned

DE - Seymour (2009)
DE - Warren (2013)
NT - Wilfork (2009)

DE - Green (2009)
DT - Le Kevin Smith (2009)

FA
DL - Wright
DL - Kenny Smith (IR)

Practice Squad:
DT - Titus Adams

LOCKS (4):
Seymour, Warren, Wilfork, Green are absolute locks. Le Kevin Smith could help secure a spot if he continues to play well in a rotational role.

SPOTS UP FOR GRAB (2):
1) Backup NT 2) Potential long term answer @ DE if Seymour leaves/replacement for Wright if he leaves in free agency

CURRENT COMPETITION FOR OPEN SPOTS
- Wright would be most welcome back, but can likely find more PT and $$ elsewhere.
- Le Kevin Smith has played well in a rotational role, but with Wilfork’s contract expiring at the end of 2009, the team might want to invest in a backup with higher upside.
- Titus Adams on the practice squad has some potential as a backup NT, but isn’t going to leap frog Le Kevin Smith anytime soon.

PLAN OF ACTION IN DRAFT/FREE AGENCY
- Ideally, the team can bring back Wright and give him a long term deal similar to Jarvis Green’s. Then they would be pretty set for next year and have good depth going forward. Unfortunately, that may not be the case.
-Regardless, with Wilfork and Seymour reaching the end of their contracts in 2009, the team would be wise to either work to extend one or both of them, or they will have to spend a Day 1 pick on either DL position.

Bottom Line: 1-2 players are needed. They will have to a) extend Wilfork b) re-sign Wright and/or c) get a sense of whether Seymour will return. Otherwise, they will need to spend a Day 1 pick on an impact player in the draft.

ctpatsfan77

I'm not 100% sure of that; remember, he has ended up on IR two of the last four seasons.

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BradyManny

Also worth adding that with a healthy Jarvis Green back, Wright only saw 2 snaps last night. Granted, the nickel has turned into a 2-4-5, so its Sey & Green who are going to rush the passer.

D-Money

Our pass rush really sucked against the colts.I would like to see some young guys drafted at DE.

BradyManny

I'm personally currently in the midst of a dilemma.

We all know that finding 3-4 DL who can two gap and stop the run isn't easy. The Patriots have found 3 guys who can do that extremely well.

The problem is, the way the league is now, and with some great passing teams out there, a DL who can go kill the QB is pretty important too. Vince Wilfork only played 1/3rd of the snaps against the Colts, yet the guy might be the most important player on the defense. How do we value him and what kind of contract does he get with that in mind? Is it time to start putting a value on pass rushing DLs?

Jarvis Green essentially is that, but perhaps we could use another, or one with slightly more power as a pass rusher. But I'm thinking that the most ideal situation is to re-sign Sey & Wilfork and STILL make a move at a Day 1 talent at DL - but not necessarily one in the 3-4 DL mold and not necessarily a 3-4 tweener OLB. That is the dilemma of operating a 3-4 in this pass happy league - your defense is predicated on stopping the run, but the guys who do that aren't necessarily great pass rushers. Big Sey happens to be both.

Two questions...is that a crazy thought [investing on a DL on Day 1, but one intended only for the nickel and dime packages], and if not, where can we find such a prospect in the draft this upcoming April?

BradyManny

To follow up, let's say we had a guy with the power and speed of some of those QB killers on the Giants.

The nickel would be a 3-3-5. Though I know that with the emergence of Guyton, the team has been going 2-4-5 a lot lately.

You'd have Green, Seymour, and new DL rushing up front.

For the linebackers, you can use any combination of AD, Vrabel, Mayo & Guyton. I could see two sets of personnel for the 3 LBs - one which is heavier on pass rush (AD & Vrabel outside, Guyton the lone ILB) and one which is heavier on coverage (AD outside & rushing, Guyton & Mayo inside covering or blitzing up the middle).

BritPat

Orakpo, Selvie. Both can play hands up or hand on the ground. Or you can move Adalius there, who is still pretty good at getting to the QB.

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BradyManny

That's the thing - Adalius has been getting pressure. Between Adalius and or Vrabel, you'd think the edge is all set. Jarvis Green hasn't quite been himself this season, 0 sacks so far after 14 over the last two, perhaps when he is generating more pressure, it will be a non issue and we won't have to worry about the pass rush when drafting.

BritPat

Just throwing this our there - what about giving Jarvis some snaps at OLB? Think he could grasp the position?

Or has he already?

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BradyManny

I think that's been brought up here before - I'm thinking he just doesn't have the skillset or build for it. He's too big to be dropping back in coverage, which is a duty of OLBs in our system - when Jarvis comes in, you know he's teeing off after the QB. As a DLineman, he's not doing it off the edge like the OLB would.