04-29-2013, 09:05 AM
Join Date: Sep 2004
A concrete look at trade "value," in players
I thought it would be interesting to make some of the abstract trade valuations concrete, using this year’s first-round trade as an example. What does pick #29 really mean, vs #52 + 83 + 102 + 229?
Below are the actual players selected in those slots for a dozen years, from 2009 (the most recent draft class I figured we can judge thoroughly) back through 1998. I leave it to you to judge for yourself which side came out ahead in each year, below. But for summary purposes, I did a rudimentary career coding:
Plaintext = Little impact
Italics = Contributor
Bold = Multi-year starter
Bold Italics = Pro-Bowler
If we define "quality player" as multi-year starter or better, then picking #29 yielded a quality player in 8 of the 12 years (8 QPs total), while #52 + 83 + 102 + 229 yielded a quality player in 11 of the 12 years (16 QPs total). Especially given that a first-round pick typically represents a major investment at a position of major need and is thus given every opportunity to start, that looks like a resounding win for the trade down.
The number of Pro-Bowlers was even, with 2 on each side.
2009 WR Hakeem Nicks vs. DE David Veikune + WR Brandon Tate + CB Donald Washington + WR Manuel Johnson
2008 DT Kentwan Balmer vs. DE Quentin Groves + G Jeremy Zuttah + DE Jeremy Thompson + CB Cary Williams
2007 G Ben Grubbs vs. FB Brian Leonard + DE Charles Johnson + DE Brian Robison + WR John Broussard
2006 C Nick Mangold vs. WR Greg Jennings + S Anthony Smith + S Calvin Lowry + S Willie Andrews
2005 CB Marlin Jackson vs. OT Khalif Barnes + WR Chris Henry + S Sean Considine + QB James Kilian
2004 WR Michael Jenkins vs. OT Jacob Rogers + G Stephen Peterman + CB Will Poole + K David Kimball
2003 LB Nick Barnett vs. LB Chaun Thompson + DE Sam Williams + G Montrae Holland + FB Andrew Pinnock
2002 OT Marc Colombo vs. DE Anthony Weaver + NT Charles Hill + K Jeff Chandler + DE Stylez White
2001 DT Ryan Pickett vs. WR Chris Chambers + LB Brian Allen + LB Matt Stewart + WR Ken-Yon Rambo
2000 WR Jay Soward vs. CB Ike Charlton + OT Damion McIntosh + CB David Barrett + DT Ron Moore
1999 DE Dimitrius Underwood vs. DT John Thornton + DE Tom Burke + WR Dameane Douglas + TE Mike Lucky
1998 RB John Avery vs. WR Tony Simmons + DE Greg Spires + DE Lorenzo Bromell + C Kevin Long