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Re: The Best Summation of Why Conservatives Were Shocked by the Election
Quote:
Originally Posted by PatsFanInVa
By the way, you know pubbies have the house now, right?
Yes....I was talking about the Presidency, obviously in 2016.
Last edited by IcyPatriot; 11-10-2012 at 09:38 PM..
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Re: The Best Summation of Why Conservatives Were Shocked by the Election
Quote:
Originally Posted by PatsFanInVa
Oh, the house is carved up for people to stick once they're in now. Losing 4 out of 55 teabaggers was a narrow escape, but the house of drunks is pretty much a self-sealing deal.
10 pubbie senate seats up for grabs, 23 Democratic ones... and the Dems actually expanded their majority.
Here's the thing: teabaggers can't pull any more stunts, or somebody primaries them in two years. The great moderate purge will be reversed one way or another in the pubbie party... and I would love for it to be because the teabaggers break away and run under the Tea Party ticket next election.
Here's a clue: You can't outflank the bat-guano crazy teabagger crowd on the right. What's left? OOPS I told you.
I'm more a fan of watching it all unfold than making big bold predictions -- I mean, look how idiotic all the con-men looked when it turned out there was a landslide they were on the wrong side of.
Obama's got a mandate. Teabaggers have 2014 to worry about. Grover Norquist has an inane pledge to send around and a rapidly fading fad brand.
We'll see how the next couple months go.
Elections have consequences
PFnV
Really....the House is made to stick.
That's interesting because the Dems lost 63 Representatives 2 years ago. Did you know that was one of worst losses in American history? Hmmmm.....so the House is made to stick but the Dems lose 63 members and then the Tea Party loses 4 members this past election. Hmmmm......4........63.......4.....63. Ok, maybe percentages look better....Dems lost 25% of their seats in the House after the 2010 elections and the Tea party lost less than 8% of their seats after this election.
Hmmmmm.....8%.....25%.
Clearly, according to the Progressive faith, we ignore silly things like numbers and percentages because propaganda just feels so much better.
Oh and as to the midterms, you might want to do a little historical research if you think the Tea Party has something to worry about in 2014. I've said it a few times in several threads but the incumbent President's party has lost seats in the House 17 times in the last 20 mid terms with an average loss of 28 seats. Oh, and you do remember that historic 63 seat loss just 2 years ago, right?
But sure, the Tea Party should worry because all the historical trends point to us gaining seats.
Re: The Best Summation of Why Conservatives Were Shocked by the Election
Allot of spiking the football by the libs. Rightly so. Other than throwing Romney under the bus or call for a revamp of the GOP. Has anyone mentioned that, Barry ran a better campaign, much better. You can use any adjective you would like to describe the tenor of the campaign, but they did a better job. 2/3's of the population didn't vote so there are plenty of folks left to sharpen your message toward.
Re: The Best Summation of Why Conservatives Were Shocked by the Election
The way you lock in your districts is through redistricting, following the once-a-decade census. The guys who got to do that this time around were, surprise surprise, the class of 2010. So, the teabaggers got their surge at exactly the right time. Maybe even perfect enough that they'll schism the party... they do like self-inflicted wounds
Seriously though, pubbies, believe what you want to believe. Please, please settle on the conclusion that your guy didn't stay conservative enough for long enough, that was the problem. Find new and different ways to try to foist the religious right and the racist/xenophobic right on the rest of the country along with the voodoo economic policies. Continue to cry the blues for millionaires.
In 2010, about 90 million people voted. It was 131 million in 2008 and 129 million in 2012. Here's a thought: maybe when your guys are the only ones at the polls you can win
Granted it was a dumb thing for the politically unsophisticated to bail in 2010, but them's the breaks. All the pubbie turnout models (resulting in the bad internal polling by the pubbies in '12) assumed people wouldn't come back out to reelect our fine president. But they did.
Here's another thought, while I'm "whistling by the graveyard" after the Democratic victory: What if 2010 was the outlier? What if you can't count on an enthusiasm gap? What if everybody is wise to the Con game?
Re: The Best Summation of Why Conservatives Were Shocked by the Election
Quote:
Originally Posted by RI Patriots fan
So the Tea Party gerrymandered 51+ seats...lol. Just plain lies. Every party gerrymanders seats when they have control, yet they still loss control when the people decide they want a change.
If you didn't happen to notice, very few incumbents lost their seats including, in strength...The Tea Party.
If the American people really wanted to take the Tea party out, they could have taken them out. I'm sure you remember the 2010 elections right? You guys lost 63 seats in the House....remember?
So let's recap....the American people throw the Dems out of the House in 2010 with a historic 63 seat turnover. Then in 2012, they reelect at least 51 Tea Party candidates and give a very solid majority right back to the Republicans.
Basically, except for a few seats in Congress that have zero effect on the balance of power, we have the exact same situation that we had before the election.
Yes, overWHELMING victory for the Dems
BTW, in regards to the midterms...any election is anyone's guess. But there are historical tendencies in elections that are pretty consistent and one of them is mid term turnover for the party of the President. Hey, if you want to whistle by the graveyard, that's just fine by me but don't be surprised if the trend holds and you lose double digit seats in the House and and control of the Senate at the midterm.
I'm not faulting the Republicans for gerrymandering, but gerrymandering has been very effective for preserving Tea Party seats. Let's face it, the Tea Party really only represents a few states with nearly 40% of the caucus from Texas, Louisiana, and Florida. They lost about 10% of their seats (though a couple are still too close to call) and from what I've read many of them have done Romneys and ran away from their Tea Party ideas. After all, things like "legitimate rape" don't seem to be that popular with the electorate. In Maine, the Dems gained control of both houses thus stopping their lunatic Tea Party governor in his tracks. I think that happened in a couple other states too. My guess is that the Tea Party will have much less clout going forward, but you are right, they are still a force.
I think if the economy continues to improve, and economic growth I just read was revised up to a very good 3.2%, the Dems will be okay in the midterms. The Republicans reached critical mass in 2010. I don't think they're poised for gains, unless they start acting more like moderates (which I expect to happen).
Re: The Best Summation of Why Conservatives Were Shocked by the Election
I think we start to see the return of the moderates in the fiscal cliff chicken game. We'll see. I'd rather see that win -- a win for the nation -- than the win for the Dems that the pubbies would hand to them by running the country off the cliff.
It's just a matter of how many insist on being bat-guano crazy for Grover, and how many are ready to face facts and cope.
It's moments like these that the particular rules that preserve institutional power are all-important. Ironic for a "populist" movement to hide behind them, when by and large, they ran against such "insider Washington" institutions.
But even if they're the world's least popular populists, the institutions they so hate do still function, and do still preserve their power.
We'll see if they're ready to pretend to understand what governing's about.