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Okay ... time to serve up the election day thread. Perhaps some here want to partake in some pre election tailgating ... thus the thread goes up now.
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Start Romney with 206 and if he wins NH (4), VA (13), Fl (29)and OH (18), it gives him the 270 needed without having to win Pennsylvania, Nevada, Colorado, Iowa or Wisconsin.
If he loses Ohio, he needs to win Pennsylvania which is a possibility based on tightening polls but I see them as twins, whoever wins one will likely win the other (OH), and the election.
Re: OFFICIAL Countdown to 2012 Election Day Thread
I expect Barack Hussein Obama to win because it's "the right thing to do" but if I am wrong and Romney is declared the winner, GET READY FOR TROUBLE IN THE STREETS, THEY (the left wing) ARE SORE LOSERS AND WON'T ACCEPT IT, EVEN A LANDSLIDE.
Harry Boy (Genius)
In The Absence Of Law And Order Society Will Surely Destroy Itself
The samples of all the national polls include 30,000 voters. This is a huge sample size so the margin of error should be very small.
Looking across the %’s across the 30,000 raw numbers polled we see the following:
Obama leading among dems, 91.15%, 7.62%, Other/Undecided 1.23%
Romney leading among R’s, 94.47%, 4.74%, Other/Undecided .79%
Romney leading among Indies: 47.40%, 38.13%. Other/Undecided 14.16%
So we see the following Romney is leading among crossover voters by 2.88% and he is leading among Independents by 9.57%
I make the following assumptions to simplify. Independents will comprise 30% of the total vote. Among the 14.16% of undecided independents 6% will go to third party candidates.
The rest of the independents will break towards the challenger by a 70/30% ratio (a little under the historical norm.
So let look at turnout models to see where we are at:
If the dems have a 37-33% advantage over the R’s, Romney wins 50.5% to 47.7% (the other 1.8% to third parties).
If the dems have a 2% turnout advantage (36-34%) Romney wins 51.4% to 46.8%
If the turnout is even (IOW the dems doing better than 2010 when the R's were +1.3%) Romney wins 52.3% to 45.9%.
If the turnout model is +1% R as per Gallup Romney wins 52.7% to 45.5%.
The R’s are polling much higher in the voter enthusiasm/intensity measurement than dems this year.
This election will be a blowout and the bad assumptions in the polling is also impacting the calculations of the Senate races, get out and vote, the rest will take care of itself.
BTW if the turnout model matches 2008 (D 39, R 32, I 31): Romney wins the popular vote 50.3-49.9. This is the cliffhanger the pundits are ‘selling’ in the media to hype the ratings.
The CU model looks to be very accurate based on the numbers in the national polls. The spinning on Wed should be epic.
"Some guys play in all-star games, some guys don't. I don't know who picks all those all-star teams. In all honesty, I don't know who picks the combine, for that matter," Belichick said. "How does (Miami-Ohio offensive lineman Brandon) Brooks not get invited to the combine? How did Vollmer not get invited to the combine? I don't know. We can't really worry about that. We just have to try to evaluate them the best we can."