PatsFanInVa

The next unemployment report comes out the Friday before election day.

The Gallup ap (& I am sure the website) has interactive trendlines for unemployment, underemployment, and workforce to population ratio on a tracking (daily) basis.

Monthly, they usually track with what BLS comes up with, but you get the daily update. In fact on one of our argument threads, about a week before the 7.8% report, I just so happened to bring in the most recent daily Gallup figure, which was 7.8% (basically coincidence, as it goes up and down a bit, but over a month I find I know whether the next report will be higher or lower.)

Granted there are three more weeks, and granted, the desperate echo chamber may start a "Lie to BLS" campaign. In fact, I predict they will. The Rushes of the world will encourage it. But that said, Here are the numbers thus far in October.

Oct. 9: 7.3%
Oct. 8: 7.5%
Oct. 7: 7.5%
Oct. 6: 7.6%
Oct. 5: 7.7%
Oct. 4: 7.8%
Oct. 3: 7.8%
Oct. 2: 7.8%
Oct. 1: 7.9%

September, from a quick finger drag across the timeline, seems only to have varied between 8.2% and 7.7%. If you average the September numbers, if anything, they look to be slightly higher (perhaps by a point) than the BLS monthly report.

The October dailies from Gallup look like something is really happening, something that will show up on the October BLS report.

Let's speculate that the sharp drop in unemployment Gallup reports from Oct. 1 to Oct. 9 at least plateaus to stay at 7.3% by the election. Or -- be still my heart -- let's say the downward trend continues, and we're at 7.0% (an annualized figure of 10.8% labor market growth -- a labor market "V" curve at the end of the bathtub.)

How does a BLS report like that affect the election?

PFnV

PatriotsReign

If it drops due to people "falling out of the workforce", it will have zero affect and it SHOULD have zero affect.

If it drops due to adding 200k+ jobs added, then it should benefit Obama.

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patsfan13

People will laugh.

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"Some guys play in all-star games, some guys don't. I don't know who picks all those all-star teams. In all honesty, I don't know who picks the combine, for that matter," Belichick said. "How does (Miami-Ohio offensive lineman Brandon) Brooks not get invited to the combine? How did Vollmer not get invited to the combine? I don't know. We can't really worry about that. We just have to try to evaluate them the best we can."

PatsFanInVa

Underemployed has also been trending down, though not as sharply, and ratio of payroll to population has been trending up -- also not as sharply.

But your 200K figure might be right on, from the looks of the last 9 days.

PFnV

Triumph

Like this thread.

Triumph

DarrylS

Felt pretty much all along this economic downturn, that there is more to the picture than meets the eye.. aka the eyeball test, the number of Audi's, BMW's and Mercedes on the highway is very obvious, you still have to pay top price for concert or sporting event ticket(everything sells out), the food stores are crowded, take a ride to any seaside NE town the number of mansions being rebuilt or built is staggering..

Talking to the UPS guy the other day, and they are working around here every day until 8-9 PM making deliveries, Amazon has a huge impact. In that case is it cheaper to pay someone overtime, than to hire someone new...

Heard something the other day regarding the new "gig" economy, whereby folks have a number of small jobs instead of one job, and most of this occurs under the table..

The economic downturn is largely a lower and middle class event..

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"Being the best doesn't mean you always win. It just means you win more than anyone else".. tweet from Kurt Warner to Tom Brady.

PatriotsReign

Either you're a phuggin broken record and you don't even realize it, or you're just......Darryl

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"No one walking this earth knows what is truly righteous"

DarrylS

You are the local purveyor of good, fresh ideas.. "ain't it awful".

__________________
"Being the best doesn't mean you always win. It just means you win more than anyone else".. tweet from Kurt Warner to Tom Brady.

PatriotsReign

I try to speak the truth and don't care what a "whatever" like you thinks.

__________________
"No one walking this earth knows what is truly righteous"